MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, September 21st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got just 2 Saturday slates left in the MLB regular season, so soak it up while you can. We’re here to talk about the main slates kicking off at 7:05 ET. It looks like we’ve got some potentially dicey weather in both Kansas City and St. Louis, so keep an eye on Roth’s MLB weather report as we get closer to lock. In the meantime, let’s figure out how to attack this slate from a stacking standpoint, shall we?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, September 21st
TOP STACK
Padres vs. Chris Flexen
Ah, yes. Time for our weekend tradition here at Top Stacks: Talking about Chris Flexen. Of Flexen’s last 8 starts, 5 have come on Saturday or Sunday, which explains why it feels like I write him up every dang weekend.
Tonight, Chicago’s well-traveled right-hander will take the mound at Petco Park, where he’ll face the Padres. This is actually a park upgrade for Flexen, but the matchup is awfully difficult for a low-strikeout righty. San Diego’s lineup has the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball (17.8%) against right-handed pitching, while tonight’s projected lineup also features a .346 wOBA and .179 ISO vs. RHP.
The funny thing about this is that Flexen hasn’t even pitched poorly, especially by White Sox standards. Sure, he’s 2-14 on the year with a 5.09 ERA, but his ERA is down to 3.14 across 3 starts so far in September. In his last outing, he held the A’s scoreless over 5 strong innings of work on the heels of a 2-run showing in 6 innings against Boston.
I’m not going to get too tied up in small sample stuff, of course. While Flexen has reverse splits for his career, he’s been pretty neutral in that regard in 2024. Lefties have a .361 wOBA with 14 home runs at his expense, while righties are at .352 with 8 dongs of their own. Flexen’s strikeout numbers are slightly better vs. LHBs, while he’s a fly ball guy with a sub-40% ground ball rate on the year.
The Pads boast a healthy 5.19 total in this one, and justifiably so. The issue is this is still a fairly pitcher-friendly park, and this San Diego lineup isn’t necessarily laden with home run hitters. I don’t have any issue with the mini-stack of Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Manny Machado, but it’s not a very exciting lineup beyond that. Sure, throw Jake Cronenworth or Kyle Higashioka into a full stack, but I’m fine taking an underweight approach to this stack if it’s going to be popular.
Early indications are that it will indeed be a popular stack. San Diego is projected to pull around 15% stack ownership on DraftKings with an optimal rate in the range of 11%. We’re looking at about 10% pOWN% on FanDuel next to a slightly lower Opto%. I’ll have some Padres in the pool, but I’ll likely come in south of the field in GPPs.
PIVOT STACKS
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