MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, September 30
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy weekend! Saturday is the penultimate day of the regular season, yet some teams are still fighting for playoff spots. We’ve got 11 games on the MLB DFS slate for tonight with an interesting pitching mix. There are a few legitimate aces at the top, while there’s a very obvious cheapie in a good matchup that should draw quite a bit of ownership.
As a result, we should have plenty of cash to spend on bats, which is useful on a slate with the Braves, Dodgers, and Coors Field. How should we be stacking on Saturday night?
Chalk Stacks – Twins at Karl Kauffmann, Braves vs. Joan Adon
The Twins had a nice night in Denver last night, but they wound up getting overshadowed by teams like the Reds, Royals, and Nationals on a high-scoring slate. Tonight, they’re projected to pick up quite a bit of ownership once again in a matchup with right-hander Karl Kauffmann.
Kauffmann’s been operating primarily in shorter relief outings, so this will likely be a bullpen situation for Colorado. The Rockies’ bullpen is abysmal of course, and Minnesota’s 6.75 implied run total is tied for the highest on the slate. Kauffmann’s 10.4% strikeout rate is identical to his walk rate at the MLB level so far this season, which is dreadful on both fronts. His ERA is north of 7.00 while his SIERA is over 6.00. By these metrics, it’s hard to imagine there’s been a worse pitcher in the majors this season.
So stacking the Twins sounds pretty appealing. Kauffmann has posted a groundball rate of nearly 49% against lefties, while his overall numbers vs. RHBs are horrific. We’re talking about a 7.4% strikeout rate, an 8.8% walk rate, and a .441 wOBA allowed. The Twins don’t have the most impressive lineup these days thanks to some injuries, and they’re also heavy on lefties. Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor are the best righties left, but I’m more than happy to fire up the lefties regardless of Kauffmann’s split. Plus, it’s not like we’re expecting him to pitch that deep into this game anyway.
Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Alex Kirilloff are Minnesota’s primary left-handed power threats, while Willi Castro has multi-positional eligibility and projects to hit second in the order. The Twins’ 9.46% stack pOWN on FanDuel is a bit higher than their 7.3% opto rate. On DraftKings, they’re right at 8% for both metrics as of this morning.
As was the case last night, we’re also expecting significant ownership on the Braves. They’ll take their swings against righty Joan Adon, who has a career 11% walk rate at the top level. He hasn’t racked up enough Ks to offset that (19.3%), and we’ve seen similar numbers so far in 2023. He’s also been barreled up nearly 12% of the time this year, though his 4.97 is a bit better than his ugly 6.42 ERA.
Still, this is the Braves, and we’re expecting them to trot out a full-strength lineup again tonight. Adon’s career splits are generally neutral, with poor numbers versus hitters of either handedness. The 1-through-7 hitters in the Atlanta lineup all have ISOs of over .200 vs. RHPs, though Michael Harris (.191) certainly isn’t far off the pace. This team also has an implied run total of over 6 runs, though they’re not projected to be quite as popular as the Twins in Coors.
Paying up for Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and friends is relatively easy with Davis Daniel ($4,500 DK, $5,500 FD) looking like such an obvious salary saver pitching for the Angels tonight against Oakland. We only have Atlanta around 6% projected stack ownership on both sites, but we could be undershooting it a bit. As always, this is an awesome stack worth prioritizing.
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