MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, August 18th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Sunday! We’ve got another sketchy weather day on tap with a whole slew of games facing potential concerns. WAS-PHI looks like the sketchiest of the lot with a YELLOW/ORANGE tag in Roth’s MLB Weather report, though we’ll have to see how things look a little later on before making any hard decisions. Several more games are at least YELLOW, while we have healthy winds blowing in from left field at Wrigley.
The big difference (as usual on these Sunday early slates) is that FanDuel included the Coors Field game on its main slate, while DraftKings did not. Stack the Padres or Rockies on FD early and often, but I won’t be breaking down that game in this space today.
How are things looking on the stacking front this afternoon?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, August 18th
CHALKY STACK
Royals at Andrew Abbott
The Padres are easily the top stack once again on FD, of course, and they’ll be the chalk. They won’t be the only popular stack today, though. The Royals also happen to find themselves in an advantageous position. They’ll be in the league’s most homer-friendly park in Cincinnati to take their swings against southpaw Andrew Abbott.
The left-hander was quite effective last season for the Reds, but his performance has fallen off so far this year. Abbott’s 19.5% K rate is about 7% lower than it was in 2023, while his walk and barrel rates are both on the wrong side of 9%. Abbott’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher. Hard-hit barreled balls have a tendency to fly over the fence, which is how Abbott has served up 24 dongs in as many starts on the year.
The ballpark does Abbott no favors, of course. Kansas City’s 4.75 implied run total hardly jumps off the page, but there’s still a lot to like about this spot. Bobby Witt Jr. may well be the top hitter on the entire slate with his robust 12.2% barrel rate, .205 ISO, and .392 wOBA on the season vs. left-handed pitching. Salvador Perez (16.7% barrels) and Hunter Renfroe (10.1%) have long track records of mashing left-handed pitching, while Vinnie Pasquantino (.170 ISO) and Maikel Garcia (.158) have flashed some occasional thunder.
Of the 24 homers served up by Abbott, 22 have come off the bats of righties, and Pasquantino is the lone lefty in the projected order for Kansas City. Things thin out pretty quickly once you get into the Garrett Hampson, Paul DeJong, and Dairon Blanco portion of the lineup, but at least they’re affordable. The savings come in handy with Witt, Perez, and Pasquantino all priced at a premium.
The Royals’ 11.45% pOWN% as a stack on DK is the highest on the board, though we can say the same of their 22.8% optimal rate. The Royals are a shade under 10% owned on FD with an Opto% of 17.6%. The Padres, for what it’s worth, only have a 4.46% Opto%.
PIVOT STACK
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