MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, July 14th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Sunday! There are 10 games on the board for today, and it doesn’t sound like weather will be a problem. This is another slate with some sketchy pitching options, which means ownership will congregate in some potentially questionable places. That will give us some clear paths to negative correlation with stacks, while we also have a handful of teams with implied totals north of 5 runs.
How should we stack ‘em up today?
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, July 14th
CHALKY STACKS
Reds vs. Trevor Rogers
Phillies vs. Joey Estes
The Reds and Phillies were fairly chalky offenses on Saturday’s afternoon slate, and we’re looking at a similar story again today. Cincinnati has a 5.09 implied run total in their hitter-friendly home yard against the formerly good Trevor Rogers. The Phillies, meanwhile, boast the highest total on the board (6.19) on a hot and steamy day in Philadelphia, where they’ll take on Joey Estes.
Rogers was an All-Star player a few years back, but injuries have derailed his career. His strikeout rate has slumped to just 18.3% on the year, while his walk (10%) and barrel (8.6%) rates are a little too high. Rogers’ 4.68 SIERA is in line with his 4.82 ERA, though he has done a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground (48.4%).
I suppose I wouldn’t go as far as to label him a gas can, but a low-strikeout lefty going into this ballpark is asking for trouble. The Reds’ primary weakness this season offensively against lefties has been strikeouts, so if they’re putting the ball in play, I like their chances of doing some damage yet again.
Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson have ISOs well over .200 against lefties in healthy samples this season, while you can say the same of Noelvi Marte in a substantially smaller sample. Elly De La Cruz has been noticeably weaker from the right side of the plate early in his career, but he’s still squarely in play for the power/speed upside he brings to the table every single day. Jeimer Candelario has heated up lately following a ragged start, while ex-Giants “lefty masher” Austin Slater is here now too.
Rece Hinds has yet to do damage against lefties in just 6 plate appearances, but something tells me he’ll be just fine. His raw power is the real deal, and a matchup with a low-strikeout southpaw should suit his game nicely. Hinds is still affordable at $3,800 on DK and $3,200 on FD, so I’d expect significant ownership on the rookie again today.
The Reds are a solid mix of pricey and affordable hitters, which makes them easy to stack. However, the RG projections don’t love them at their current ownership. Cincy’s pulling 9.5% projected stack ownership on DraftKings, while their optimal rate is only around 5%. On FanDuel, they’re looking at about 10.3% stack pOWN%, while their optimal rate is just over 3%.
We’ll see how the ownership ultimately plays out, but I’d expect the Phillies to be the highest-owned stack again today. Joey Estes threw a complete game shutout against the Angels a couple of starts ago, but this spot is considerably more daunting.
The right-hander has pitched to a 5.53 ERA on the year, while his 4.87 SIERA really isn’t much better. The strikeouts (18.3%) haven’t been there. His barrel rate is sitting at 9%, which is problematic for a pitcher with a 51% (!!!) fly ball rate. Estes apparently has no ability to keep the ball on the ground whatsoever, and he’s allowed 7 homers across 11 starts thus far.
The Phillies are nearly back to full strength, so it’s all systems go for this offense today in a game with hitter-friendly conditions. Kyle Schwarber (13.8% barrels) and Bryce Harper (10.6%) are your predictable headliners from the left side, as Estes has yielded a .381 wOBA to LHBs with a dismal 13.6% K rate.
Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and Rafael Marchan are the only other lefties in Philly’s projected order, but there’s your full 5-man stack right there. Marsh and Marchan both have wOBAs pushing .400 with ISOs of over .200 against righties, so they’re not just filler pieces here.
Estes has looked a bit more respectable against righties (.293 wOBA, 22.3% Ks), but those numbers aren’t amazing enough to get me away from Trea Turner if I have all the money in the world to spend on a shortstop. I’m a bit less enthused about the rest of the Phillies’ RHBs, though Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos are certainly in play for full stacks.
The Phillies are projected for around 12% ownership on DraftKings, though their optimal rate is only around 4.4%. They’re a bit easier to afford on FanDuel, where their 14.9% ownership compares more favorably to their 9.6% Opto%.
PIVOT STACK
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