MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, July 21st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a boffo of a Sunday slate on tap, with 11 games on the DraftKings main slate and 12 on FanDuel. The lone difference is that FD is including the SFG/COL Coors Field extravaganza, which is quite the difference, indeed. As always, stacks in Coors are going to be some of the top options by default, and I assume you don’t need me to tell you that if you’re reading premium MLB content in the middle of July. So stack the Giants and Rockies all you want on FD, but I’m going to limit the scope of this article to the 22 offenses shared by the two slates this afternoon.
Let’s dive right in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, July 21st
CHALKY STACK
Orioles at Andrew Heaney
This slate is so large that I doubt any one stack is going to emerge with overwhelming ownership. The Giants on FanDuel could be the exception there, but I’m not concerned about the Orioles’ popularity. They won’t fly under the radar here, but I don’t expect anybody to be owned to the point where we need to consider fading them.
The Orioles have been the best offense in baseball this season by a number of metrics, and today they’ll square off against Andrew Heaney in Arlington. Heaney certainly isn’t bad himself – we play him fairly often as an SP2 on DraftKings where he’s always too cheap – and he’s having a solid season. His ERA and SIERA are both south of 4.00, while his 23.7% strikeout rate is a bit above average. The walks and barrels are both down from where they were a season ago.
The issue is he’s always been a lefty with a fly ball lean who serves up too many homers. While 14 home runs through 19 games this season isn’t egregious, it’s not nothing either, and 13 of those 14 dongs have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. Lefties are also sporting a healthy .357 wOBA against him.
The O’s are even more powerful against lefties as they are against righties. Today’s projected lineup has a collective .205 ISO with a .346 wOBA vs. left-handed pitching alongside a goofy team 11.1% barrel rate. The only hitters in today’s projected O’s lineup with a sub-10% barrel rate vs. LHP this season are Ryan Mountcastle (8.5%), Adley Rutschman (8.8%), and Jorge Mateo (6.7%).
It’s an embarrassment of riches, which makes them grade out as one of the better stacks of the afternoon. We do have some expensive hitters to deal with here among Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Anthony Santander, but you can find savings with secondary pieces like Mateo and Austin Hays. James McCann is likely to crack the lineup as well, which puts him in play as a $2,500 punt catcher on DK.
The O’s are projected for around 17% stack ownership on DK, but they still have a healthy optimal rate hovering in the 10% range. They’re predictably less popular over on FD (7.5% pOWN%), while their optimal rate is impressively up over 20%.
PIVOT STACK
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
