MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, July 28th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’re looking at a nice 10 game main slate on this fine Sunday. The pitching pool is on the shallow side, which figures to lead to significant ownership on guys like Cole Ragans, Bryce Miller, and Bailey Ober in favorable matchups. This is another slate with spread out offense, as there isn’t one stack projected to pull more than 10% ownership on either DraftKings or FanDuel.
Let’s dig through it and figure things out from a stacking standpoint.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, July 28th
AFFORDABLE STACK
Guardians at Kolby Allard
It’s hard to identify a chalk stack today because it doesn’t really look like anybody is obvious chalk. There are a few teams with implied run totals in the neighborhood of 5 runs, including the Phillies on the other side of this game. The Guardians have a couple of expensive hitters, but they’re easier to stack given their overall affordability.
Cleveland is set to face veteran lefty Kolby Allard, who’s set to make his season debut at the MLB level after pitching in 19 games between Double-A and Triple-A in the Phillies’ system. Allard was a top prospect several years ago, but it’s never quite panned out for him in the majors. His career 4.74 MLB SIERA isn’t quite as ugly as his 6.10 ERA, but strikeouts (18.8%) aren’t a huge part of his arsenal. He’s also got a slight fly ball lean, which helps to explain how he allowed a career-high 29 homers in a career-high 32 starts for the Rangers back in 2021.
Allard projects for a reverse split from the left side, but I’m not too concerned about that when it comes to stacking the Guardians. RHBs have hit 35 of the 50 homers he’s allowed over the years, even if the overall batted ball data slightly favors lefties. I think that just means we can (Blender voice) stack anyone we want!
Jose Ramirez (12.3%) and Josh Naylor (11.1%) predictably pace the Guardians in terms of barrel rate against lefties on the year, while Jhonkensy Noel (23.1%) has done significant damage in a rather insignificant sample of 22 plate appearances. Noel does have monstrous amounts of power, so I trust it well enough. David Fry (8.2%) has also done some damage, though his numbers are still benefiting from his blazing start to the season.
Allard’s reverse split makes me feel a bit better about keeping Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, and Bo Naylor in the pool for stacking. Angel Martinez is also a cheap, low-strikeout hitter projected to bat 2nd behind Kwan, so I’d expect him to be one of the most popular Guardians.
The Guardians have hit for more power than they did last year, and Citizens Bank is one of the more hitter friendly yards on today’s slate. While I think they’ll be somewhat popular, I doubt it’ll be overwhelming. Cleveland is only projected for about 4.6% stack ownership on FanDuel, while their optimal rate is north of 6.4%. On DraftKings, they’re projected for a shade under 4% pOWN% alongside a 5.3% Opto%.
ANOTHER CHEAP STACK
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