MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, May 21
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
There’s clear chalk on this slate and it’s pretty good chalk, but we have a lot of pivot options. We’ll talk about the top pivot off of the chalk and a way to stack against a highly-owned pitcher. We can build a lot of stacks in decent spots, but the three we’ll discuss here should be in the forefront. There is a way to play a singular chalky stack. There are ways to avoid the chalk in single-entry or go underweight on it in MME
Chalk Stack- Astros vs. James Kaprielian
The Astros are the chalk to which I was referring. James Kaprielian might be a gas can. He was simply a below-average starter in 2021 and 2022, but his xERA has ballooned to 6.48. Always having control problems, his BB/9 is up to 5.87 and his HR/9 is up to 2.35, allowing a 9.7% barrel rate. This is over a small sample of 23.0 IP, but his control and barrel rate have always been problematic, so he was due for some amplification. THE BAT agrees and projects him to allow 1.71 HR/9, rest of season.
And after Kaprielian, it only gets worse for the A’s, as their bullpen is — by far — the worst in MLB, no matter what metric you chose to use.
And, oh, the Astros have a lot of talent and come with an implied total near six.
Houston’s issue this season has been power. Their .135 ISO this season ranks 26th in MLB. They can bloop single Kaprielian to death to get eight runs, but there’s still too much powerful talent to ignore.
Yordan Alvarez has a 19.7% barrel rate since 2022, while Kyle Tucker is at 10.1%. Jose Abreu has been atrocious — and it feels ugly to play him in this deep rut — but his 8.4% rate is certainly playable for the price. Jeremy Pena brings positional scarcity with his 8.1% rate. Jose Altuve has a .184 versus RHPs since 2022 and Alex Bregman has a team-leading 45.9% FB rate. Add the flashes of power from Corey Julks and Chas McCormick and we should hammer the point home that there’s a multitude of ways to stack this team and inject uniqueness into our lineups.
There’s a lot to like but not love on this slate, so going overweight on this chalk is fine. We don’t have to go Astros in single-entry and small fields where the ownership will inflate, but it’s fine; we just need to couple them up with a very low-owned secondary stack.
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