MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, April 18th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
MLB has apparently decided to essentially take Thursday off, as we’ve got just 5 games scattered throughout the day. We’re here to discuss the 3-game 1:05 PM ET docket that DraftKings and FanDuel have dubbed their main slates of the day. It’s grim out there, folks. Luckily, all 3 games start within a half hour of one another, so this won’t be a marathon of a slate like the one we had yesterday afternoon.
Of course, ownership will likely be rather condensed with so few games on the board, but everyone’s stuck with the same slate. Let’s do some stackin’.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, April 18th
Chalk Stack – Guardians at Red Sox
We’ve got games in Detroit, St. Pete, and Boston this afternoon. The best hitting environment on the board is clearly at Fenway, where Brennan Bernardino will start for the Red Sox against Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco. This tweet from last night indicates Bernardino will likely give way to Cooper Criswell, who’s expected to work in bulk relief. Long relievers are never locks to get into the game, but Bernardino hasn’t thrown more than 29 pitches in a game yet this season.
The opener situation makes it tricky considering Bernardino is a lefty and most of the Guardians’ better hitters are also left-handed. Bernardino also owns a career 62% ground-ball rate against lefties, and Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor are ground-ball-hitting lefties. Fun! Jose Ramirez and Ramon Laureano are the only real righty power threats here, though they did add righties David Fry (hitting 2nd) and Tyler Freeman (hitting 5th) to the lineup.
Of course, some of those righties could have pinch-hit risk if/when Criswell enters the game, which makes stacking them more complicated. Lefties have torched Criswell in his career to the tune of a .414 wOBA, while he’s struck them out around 11% of the time. Cleveland is a high-contact lineup to begin with, so they’ll be putting the ball in play.
The Guardians’ lineup is also a good mix of pricey and cheap hitters. Ramirez and Josh Naylor are the only lefties that strike much power fear into opposing pitchers, but Gimenez has decent enough batted-ball skills at the top of the lineup. Bo Naylor is a rare catcher projected to hit in the heart of the order. Brayan Rocchio is $3,000 or less on both DK and FD.
They’ll be owned, of course, because it’s a 3-game slate. Cleveland is projected for about 25% stack ownership on DraftKings, which is slightly higher than their 19% Opto%. On FD, they are projected for about 26% stack ownership with a 20% Opto%.
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