Carlos Carrasco Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If you were to look at tonight’s board with a ton of $10K arms and believe it were loaded with pitching, you’d be correct. If you were to think that the pitchers worth considering stopped at $9K or $10K though, you’d be wrong because there are several mid-range arms with strong qualities as well. The top projected value for less than $10K on FanDuel is Carlos Carrasco ($9.4K). With just six runs allowed over his last 36 innings, his 3.82 ERA now more closely aligns with estimators ranging from a 3.45 FIP to a 4.02 xERA. The strikeout rate is a bit low for his usual standards (23.3%), but he still owns a more than respectable 17.0 K-BB% (and he’s the team’s fourth starter). He’s gone at least six innings in three of his last four. The weather isn’t expected to affect this pitcher friendly environment nearly as much as yesterday, while not only do the Reds have a 76 wRC+ (8.3 HR/FB) away from home and 85 wRC+ (24.2 K%) vs RHP, but each of Kyle Farmer, Jonathan India and Mike Moustakas were either scratched or left the game early with injuries last night, though all three are projected to be back in there tonight. Carrasco is the fourth best projected DraftKings value for $1.2K less, but the top projected value in the $6K to $9K range.

Some of the additional arms projecting as top 10 FanDuel values are probably not guys you’re considering using on a single pitcher site, at least not tonight. Marcus Stroman would usually be fine with pitcher friendly conditions at Wrigley against the Nationals, but he can’t compete with the upside of the top of the board tonight. Braxton Garrett has shown some upside, striking out 37 of his last 93 batters with a 13.1 SwStr%, but all four of those starts were against either the Red or Pirates, while he has a much tougher matchup in a much tougher park in Philly tonight (113 wRC+, 21.4 K%, 12.6 HR/FB vs LHP). The Phillies are also the hottest offense in baseball over the last week (159 wRC+). Either are find in your SP2 spot on DraftKings for $7.5K or less.

Tommy Henry walked and struck out three Guardians each in his major league debut, but faces a much less disciplined lineup this time out. Fangraphs ranks the nearly 26 year-old pitcher the 20th best prospect in the Arizona system with a 40 Future Value grade. He produced a 12.3 K-BB% over 20 AAA starts this season. James Kaprielian has allowed 10 runs over his last 38.2 innings, despite just a 5.2 K-BB% over this span (.212 BABIP, 82.1 LOB%, 4.2 HR/FB). Just two of 10 barrels have left the park over this span and you can’t even blame Oakland because he’s only had two home starts. Kaprielian has struck out more than four in just one his last 13 starts, while a 4.81 xERA is his only estimator below five on the season, despite 9.5% Barrels/BBE. However, both project as top three values and potential SP2 punts in great matchups for less than $6K on DK tonight. Henry hosts the Pirates (82 wRC+, 26.5 K% vs LHP) and Kaprielian hosts the Angels (96 wRC+, 26.9 K% vs RHP). Those are the two highest strikeout splits on the board.

Alex Cobb almost has his ERA below four. A 17.9 K-BB%, 62.2 GB%, 28.6 Z-O-Swing%, 3.6% Barrels/BBE and 34.5% mph EV suggest it should be somewhere around three. His worst estimator is a 3.16 DRA. However, a .324 BABIP and 60.6 LOB% have different ideas. Would you be shocked to find out there are another 10 unearned runs on top of the 40 earned ones as well? Twenty years ago, they would have thought he was having a bad season. Cobb is also pitching deeper into games after putting a couple of early season injuries behind him. He has Quality Starts in five of his last six. The Padres are better than their 99 wRC+ (22.0 K%, 9.5 HR/FB) vs RHP this year (though they’ve not been showing it), but Cobb may still be too cheap for $7K on DK ($1K more on FD).

Jose Urqudiy has a 23.5 K% over his last six starts, which includes at least eight strikeouts three times, but a total of eight in his other three combined. He has just a 19.0 K% on the season. With a below average strikeout rate and poor contact profile (90.2 mph EV, 9.6% Barrels/BBE), a 5.1 BB% is his lone positive attribute. Urquidy’s 3.62 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators (78.2 LOB%), but he does pitch in front of the top defense in the league (24 Runs Prevented). Urquidy likes to throw his four-seamer often (54.9%) and it’s his best pitch (-1.1 RV/100). The Rangers (93 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP) are also one of the worst offenses in the league against fastballs (-0.28 wFB/C). He, too, is a fine SP2 in the $7K range.

Lastly, we hate the matchup (Blue Jays 115 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP) and contact profile (11 home runs and 11.7% Barrels/BBE through 10 starts), but Kyle Bradish costs less than $6K in a now pitcher friendly park with a 22.8 K% and no barrels in two starts since returning. This may be another punt worthy SP2 if necessary.

In addition to all of the $10K/$9K pitchers tonight, we also have several decent arms in some high upside spots, who project as potentially great values. Considering those who may stand on their own on a single pitcher site, old control problems reappeared for Triston McKenzie last time out, walking five Royals with just four strikeouts. It seems to be an isolated incident as he’s only walked more than two one other time and no more than one in each of his previous four starts. He’s had to sacrifice some strikeouts (22.9%) and still has major issues in his contact profile (32 GB%, 91.2 mph EV, 11.6% Barrels/BBE), which runs his estimators a range between a 4.08 SIERA and a 4.57 FIP, all more than half a run above his 3.47 ERA (.217 BABIP, 82.2 LOB%). What we love here is the matchup, though. The Tigers have a 70 wRC+, 23.8 K%, 6.7 BB% and 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP this year. None of McKenzie’s previous issues should apply. He’s $9.3K on FanDuel, but exactly $1K less on DraftKings, projecting as the fourth best pitcher overall, but the second best value on either site.

Carlos Carrasco doesn’t have a Quality Start in his last four, but after being roughed up by Houston twice in a row (he left one start early with a back issue), he’s allowed just three runs over his last 11.1 innings with 13 strikeouts. His overall body of work (17.7 K-BB%) has been much better than a 4.55 ERA seems to suggest with a .344 BABIP being responsible for most of the unwarranted damage. While Carrasco hasn’t been extremely consistent and has just two Quality Starts in his last 10, the production really hasn’t been as bad as the results with all estimators more than half a run lower. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley tonight and the Cubs have a 100 wRC+ with a 23.0 K% vs RHP. Carrasco is a top seven projected arm and top four projected value on either site.

Kutter Crawford has struck out 24 of 77 batters with seven walks and three home runs (just two barrels), since returning to the majors a month ago. That’s some quality work, though his velocity and swinging strike rate (10.7%) are actually down in a starting role. On the season (30 IP), he has a 3.69 SIERA and DRA and no other estimators below four, but none within a quarter of a run of his 4.50 ERA. The fact that he hasn’t hit 90 pitches or six innings yet might hurt him on FanDuel, but for less than $7K on either site, he still projects as the top value on the board in a great matchup with a substantial park upgrade. The Rays have a 98 wRC+ and 24.7 K% vs RHP, but missing several key bats, tonight’s lineup could be even worse than that. Six of nine projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this year.

The only negative about this board is the lack of viable, low priced SP2 options on DraftKings. Keegan Thompson has a 30.7 K% over his last five starts, most recently striking out eight Dodgers. It’s a bit odd that he’s done this by featuring his four-seam fastball more often, but he has a number of pitches in his arsenal above a 20% whiff rate now, so perhaps there’s something new here. Although he’s not throwing it a ton, the strikeout rate spike started around the time he began utilizing a “sweeper”. Season estimators range from a 3.53 xERA to a 4.06 xFIP, but that may bit outdated if this improvement is for real. You could take a chance on that in GPPs, as he costs just $5.8 and the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, but the matchup is far from ideal (Mets 113 wRC+, 19.8 K% vs RHP).

Carlos Carrasco’s 13.7 SwStr% over the last month is identical to his season rate, even as his strikeout rate has dropped to 23.4% over this span. However, he’s allowed 15 runs over his last 17.2 innings with six HRs and a conversation now needs to be had about his quality of contact allowed. A .353 BABIP still seems unsustainable and a 14.1% Barrels/BBE is a full three points above any other pitcher today and likewise unlikely to be maintained, but it’s an absolute fact that he’s been getting hammered. His 90.9 mph aEV is behind only Mike Leake’s 91.5 mph aEV tonight. His 47.3% 95+ mph EV is behind only Dakota Hudson’s 48%. In a firmly positive run environment, we have to think about taking advantage of his troubles with a Minnesota offense that has been truly ferocious this season. Their 131 wRC+ on the road (18.8 HR/FB) is a split best by more than 10 points today. Their 120 wRC+ vs RHP (19.9 K%, 17.1 HR/FB) is tied for split bets with a Houston team missing many of it’s top bats. LHBs now have a fairly healthy .329 wOBA against Carrasco over the last 12 months. How good has this Minnesota lineup been? They don’t have a single eligible DFS bat today below a .154 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year with only Miguel Sano (97 wRC+) among the projected nine below a 100 wRC+. Jorge Polanco (151 wRC+, .205 ISO) has been the surprise breakout bat. Max Kepler (110 wRC+, 228 ISO) was showing signs of the same, but has a -93 wRC+ and 9.1 Hard% over the last week. Eddie Rosario (106 wRC+, .231 ISO) should be near the top of this lineup as well.

Carlos Carrasco has a 25.2 K-BB% that trails only Chris Sale tonight, while his 14.2 SwStr% actually ties him for the top mark on the board. Carrasco has had an issue with hard contact. His 90.9 mph aEV, 14.1% Barrels/BBE and 47.2% 95+ mph EV are all worst on the slate tonight and none of those marks are even particularly close to any other pitchers, but perhaps that’s why he’s only the fifth most expensive pitcher on DraftKings tonight in a high upside spot. The White Sox exceed a 25% strikeout rate at home (25.8%), vs RHP (26.8%) and over the last week (27.2%). Right in line with that, Carrasco has struck out 12 of 43 White Sox (27.9%) he’s faced this year. If he can up that just a bit to 30-35% tonight, he’ll merely need to be a competent contact manager to pay large dividends. There’s certainly some risk that hard contact will do him in, but this is actually a run environment upgrade for Carrasco and he matches or surpasses the upside of any other pitcher in a similar price range tonight.