MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, August 1st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The NFL preseason is kicking off with the Hall of Fame Game this evening, so that’s my best guess as to why there’s a tiny MLB slate. There are just 5 games on tap, and our guy Kevin Roth’s MLB Weather analysis indicates that 4 of them could have some weather implications. Roth has 3 games (as of this morning) listed as “Yellow/Orange” and another listed as “Yellow.”
It almost seems like a necessity to tune into MLB Crunch Time tonight to get the best possible forecast before rosters lock. I’m going to currently proceed as if these games are good enough for hitters. Let’s dive into some stacks.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Underdog Fantasy promo code, two of the best DFS sites available today.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, August 1st
CHALKY STACK
Royals at Keider Montero
The Royals are the rightful chalk play on Thursday. Maybe Montero will figure it out eventually, but the MLB level hasn’t been kind to him so far. His ERA is over 6.00, and his xERA is still well north of 5.00, so he’s certainly been pretty bad. Montero, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled against both sides of the plate, yielding a .185 ISO and .346 wOBA to lefties but a massive .369 ISO, .443 wOBA, and 13% barrel rate vs. righties.
He’s been much worse against righties because it seems like he has one less pitch to throw against them – he’s throwing roughly 8% more 4-seam fastballs to righties and throwing his knuckle curve much less (about that same 8% difference) against them. He’s simply more predictable against righties with just two main offerings.
Bobby Witt might just be the top bat on the slate. It doesn’t matter if a pitcher is right-handed, left-handed, or ambidextrous. He will hit the ball hard. In fact, he may be slightly reverse-splitsy, with a hard-contact rate about 17% higher against RHP compared to LHP this season. Hunter Renfroe (.311 ISO, .389 wOBA vs. RHP 4-seamers) and Salvador Perez (.309 ISO, .355 wOBA vs. RHP 4-seamers) are next on my list since Montero is throwing nearly 50% of 4-seamers to righties, and both of those guys crush that right-handed pitch.
But just because Montero has been much worse against righties doesn’t mean we should leave out the lefty MJ Melendez, who has flashed exceptional power vs. RHP this season. He ranks 2nd among the projected lineup against RHP with an overall (against all pitches) .233 ISO.
Salary shouldn’t be a big deal. Half of this Royals lineup is affordable if you want to pay up for a top-priced pitcher such as Shota Imanaga. But if you want to get the big-boy bats, I really like the mid-range options like Charlie Morton or even Max Meyer, who is back up with the big club.
Kansas City is the away team, and that guaranteed 9th-inning at-bat is a nice bonus. Of course, weather will play a big part in all of this, so tune into Crunch Time before lock.
As of now, Kansas City projects as the overwhelming chalk stack, via our Top Stacks tool. But I’m in, and I think the Royals can hang a big number.
PIVOT STACK
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
