MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, August 31
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have three entire games on the docket tonight. Why? College football! Don’t the footballers realize we have a ton of MLB left in the tank? If you’re looking for condensed ownership and chalk, you’re in the right place. Let’s dive in and see what’s going on.
Chalk Stacks – Marlins vs. Joan Adon, Padres vs. Ryan Walker
There’s going to be clumped ownership this evening while both of these teams have similar pOWN% on both sites according to our top stacks tool.
Miami is projected to be 23.96% on DraftKings and 26.69% on FanDuel.
It’s not like Adon is a total dumpster fire on the mound, but there are only so many spots to attack on a three-game slate. Adon, a righty, has been much better against right-handed hitters compared to lefties this season (.095 ISO, .198 wOBA). That’s surprisingly really good.
Against lefties, however, he has some holes in his game with an unimpressive .261 ISO and a .332 wOBA. Oddly enough, his barrel rate vs. lefties is only half of what it is against righties. Regardless, he is still yielding about 50% of hard contact to both sides of the plate while striking out just 20% of hitters.
An interesting tidbit here is that Adon has significantly cut his fastball usage by about 20% in the last 30 days compared to the past calendar year.
After another look, it seems that he added a slider to his arsenal this year – a pitch Adon only threw in two pro games before the season started. It looks like Adon is throwing the slider almost exclusively to right-handed hitters, and according to baseballsavant, that pitch owns a respectable 26% whiff rate.
I would prioritize the Miami lefties in this matchup if I had to pick a side. Jazz Chisholm would be my favorite bat here. Adon has thrown his curveball about 33% to left-handed hitters across the last 30 days. It’s a small-ish sample size, but Chisholm (a lefty) owns a 17% barrel rate vs. righty curveballs across the last two seasons according to PlateIQ. And as it seems Adon is opting to throw his fastball less, Jazz should see those curveballs tonight.
San Diego is projected to be 23.94% on DraftKings and 25.99% on FanDuel.
It looks like Ryan Walker will open up for the Giants, but we haven’t received any confirmation about what might happen after that. My best guess is that southpaw Sean Manaea would be entering a bulk role behind him.
Regardless, we’re getting into that Giants’ bullpen. If Manaea is confirmed on bulk duty, he’s certainly attackable. He owns an ERA over 5, but it’s a tale of two sides of the plate.
Manaea has been borderline elite against lefties but can get thumped by righties. In 2023, Manaea is yielding a .239 ISO, a 51% hard-contact rate, and a 12.2% barrel rate vs. right-handed hitters. The Padres lineup is littered with righties that mash southpaws, so take your pick on this three-game slate. It makes sense that San Diego is projected to be popular.
Gary Sanchez pops off the page vs. lefties. He’s enjoying a career resurgence and owns a .386 ISO with a wild 23% barrel rate this season against them. In a perfect world for him, Walker would open, Manea would come in, and then Gary would be one of the first batters he sees with a chance of seeing him twice during the game. The world isn’t perfect, of course.
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