MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, August 8th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a messy 5-game slate with a ton of bad pitching and one game with a gigantic weather concern. Make sure to tune into Crunch Time closer to roster lock to get the latest forecast and read Kevin Roth’s MLB Weather analysis. Let’s dive in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Underdog Fantasy promo code, two of the best DFS sites available today.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, August 8th
CHALK STACK
Phillies at Jordan Montgomery
The Phillies are fresh off a monstrous Kyle Schwarber 3-homer game against the Dodgers last night, and they’ll head to Arizona to take on Jordan Montgomery and company. Montgomery has been borderline atrocious this year, with an ERA and xERA both over 5.00, which supports that accusation.
But almost all of that blame can be pointed toward his shortcomings against righties. Lefties are slashing just .235/.304/.314 in 51 at-bats against him. Of course, that’s a small sample size, but when you compare it to the .330/.382/.539 against righties, it’s a big deal. He’s allowing a .288 ISO and .388 wOBA to righties but just a sparkling .078 ISO and .279 wOBA to lefties.
Montgomery has been throwing his curveball about twice as much to lefties across the last 30 days, which makes sense because that pitch has a whiff rate of over 30% this season.
Before we get into the Phillies hitters – a few quick notes.
Pitching is extremely gross on this entire slate, so I think you can spread out your pitching pool in tournaments, so salary really isn’t an issue. The Yankees vs. Angels game has a serious chance of PPD and is listed as “ORANGE” by our guy Kevin Roth. We have such a small slate. Many hitters are important in that game (mostly Yankees), so it’s almost impossible to predict pOWN% right now. As we get closer to roster lock (and if that game looks uglier), there’s a chance the chalk condenses even more toward the obvious smash spots.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch house (as my grandfather used to say), Schwarber and Bryce Harper are both obviously very expensive. I would imagine Schwarber is one of the de facto cash plays after a mammoth 3-HR evening despite the lefty/lefty matchup. But boy, oh boy, what a fade he would be in tournaments – especially if the game in the Bronx gets postponed and more pOWN% trickles toward the Phillies studs. I’ll say that Schwarber has had no issues hitting lefties this season, and Arizona has a great park for hitting, so it’s definitely a little scary.
But in terms of game theory on a really small slate, if Schwarber is uber chalk in tournaments, I’m rolling the dice that one of the league leaders in strikeouts can’t connect – especially considering Montgomery’s night and day lefty/righty splits. Just some food for thought!
That being said, you can certainly stack the Phillies without one or both of those lefties powerhouse lefties.
Alec Bohm has been on an absolute mission since the All-Star Break, and he’s hit in 12 of his last 12 games. Trea Turner has always had some nice power splits vs. LHP, and he has a .212 ISO against them this season. Edmundo Sosa and Nick Castellanos both have ISOs well over .200 against southpaws in 2024 as well. It’s a lefty-mashing lineup, and if you find a Phillies stack you like without Schwarber (or Harper), I think you can go for it on this ridiculous little slate.
Our Top Stacks tool will likely be a work in progress today due to forecast updates, but the Phillies are currently projected as the highest-owned stack on both sites and are second in Opto%.
PIVOT STACK
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
