Jordan Montgomery Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Let’s start with the notion that you’re jamming Jacob deGrom into your daily fantasy lineup if you can find any way to do so. With that said, six of the top eight currently projected top values for less than $11K on FanDuel are difficult to justify on a single pitcher site. The seventh best projected value, Joey Ryan ($8.9K) may be the most interesting in a home matchup against the Royals (89 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP, 55 wRC+, 4.4 HR/FB last seven days). While Ryan had been giving up some runs recently, mostly due to 13.3% Barrels/BBE over his last eight starts, last time out was the first time he’d combined poor run prevention with a poor strikeout to walk ratio in quite some time. In fact, in the eight starts going into his last one, he’d had a 22.5 K-BB%, but 5.44 ERA. You would think that even his 16.6 K-BB% on the season would produce estimators below four, but not so with a 26.6 GB%. In fact, a 3.83 xERA with 9.4% Barrels/BBE is his only estimator below his 4.05 ERA. It’s an odd profile, but estimators have issues with extreme fly ball pitchers. An offense struggling to hit the ball out may be just the solution he’s looking for right now. For $800 less, Ryan projects as the fifth best DraftKings value, but may still be a tough SP2 fit behind a $12K pitcher.

Projecting as either the eighth or ninth best value, Jordan Montgomery has lowered his swinging strike rate (10.4%) and increased his strikeout rate (23.2%) since the trade (his walk rate has remained 4.9%). No, it doesn’t make any sense, but it works and is within a supportable range. The one thing that does make sense is the Cardinals encouraging more ground balls (56%) with one of the best defenses in baseball behind him (15 Runs Prevented), especially in the infield. Montgomery has a 1.45 ERA/2.29 FIP/3.05 xFIP since joining St Louis. He’s already dominated a Milwaukee offense that struggles against LHP (86 wRC+, 26.0 K%), striking out eight of 24 over six shutout innings in his second National League start.

If you need to punt your SP2 behind deGrom, the only attractive thing about Chad Kuhl is that he costs less than $6K against a below average offense (White Sox 95 wRC+ vs RHP) outside Coors. Ever since shutting out the Dodgers on three hits at Coors (yes, that is a thing that really happened this year), he has neither gone beyond five innings, nor allowed fewer than three runs in nine straight starts, over which he has a 9.02 ERA/8.16 FIP/5.42 xFIP. Ken Waldichuk is a highly regarded prospect just slightly more expensive, but the Rangers have smashed LHP (116 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 16.6 HR/FB). Kris Bubic has both struck out and walked eight of his last 90 batters. With just a 6.8 K-BB% and 45.7% 95+ mph EV, his 5.40 ERA is probably right where it’s supposed to be and matches his DRA exactly. You could also wait to see who the Rays and Blue Jays send out for Game Two, if it doesn’t end up being a double bullpen game.

Charlie Morton is within $200 of $8K on either site tonight and while that seems cheap, he has struggled in the early going. He owns just a 9.7 K-BB% and 9.0 SwStr% through three starts with a 32.7 GB% that’s 20 points below his career rate. Three of his four barrels (8.2%) have left the yard. He’s still throwing mostly the same arsenal at roughly the same speed, but both his four-seamer (41.8%) and curveball (41%) have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350. Additionally, the Cubs have been better than expected and own a 10.5 BB% vs RHP, along with a 129 wRC+. That said, Morton is essentially tied for the top projection on the board (PlateIQ) with Shohei Ohtani (though that could change) and expected to be a very popular arm, who may be worth fading if those ownership projections (which are also fluid) remain constant.

Another strongly projected pitcher, who costs a bit less than $8K on either site is Jordan Montgomery. He’s currently behind only Morton it terms of point per dollar value projection on either site. It’s pretty hard to produce quality work in Yankee pinstripes under the radar, but that’s just what Montgomery seems to do every year. He has struck out just 11 of 60, but with a 12.3 SwStr% and solid contact management (87.6 mph EV). He’s allowed just a single barrel (2.3%) so far, producing a 2.59 xERA that matches actual results (2.51 ERA). The O’s own a board high 28.9 K% vs LHP this year.

Paul Blackburn doesn’t project very well, but has decided he’d like to be somewhat of a thing this year. While Oakland has capped him at twice through the order and exactly five innings in each of his three starts, the velocity is up a mile per hour (it was up two mph before dropping in his last start, which is something to watch), as he’s struck out 14 of 55 batters with just a single walk. He’s done this while maintaining his 52% career ground ball rate this year. He faces a dangerous lineup, but with a 24.3 K% vs RHP in a negative run environment. Watch the velocity though, because he had just a 3.2 SwStr% with the drop in his last start. He could be an interesting GPP play though.

On the cheaper end on DraftKings, one pitcher stands out. Glen Otto ($6.5K) struck out five of 18 A’s with a 20 SwStr% in his first start and since that’s kind of like facing a AAA team this year, we can note that he’s also struck out nine of 24 AAA batters too this season. Otto produces an 18 K-BB% over 23.1 major league innings last year. With a league average 8.2% Barrels/BBE over his 28.1 innings now, there does seem to be some upside in this young, unheralded arm. It may surprise you to learn the Astros have a 22.9 K% vs RHP this season.

No pitcher reaches $10K on both sites on a six game Monday night slate, but Lance Lynn misses being the most expensive pitcher on both sites by just $100 on DraftKings and is the only pitcher to reach $10K on FanDuel, landing within $100 of that mark on either site. Nine runs in 20 innings over his last four starts have pushed Lance Lynn’s ERA up to 2.26, still more than a run below every estimator except for a 2.60 xERA (6.1% Barrels/BBE). The one significant concern here is a 8.2 SwStr% or lower in five of his last six starts. Lynn is also facing one of the top offenses in the league (Blue Jays 112 wRC+ vs RHP) in Toronto with only one batter in the projected lineup above a 23 K% vs RHP this year. There are enough reasons here to fade Lynn in this spot.

The only $10K pitcher (costing exactly that much) on DraftKings is…Jordan Montgomery?? He allowed three runs over just 4.2 innings after spending a couple of weeks on the COVID IL, but did strikeout six of 19 Red Sox. His 3.76 ERA is within one-third of a run of all non-DRA estimators and does top the board with a 13.5 SwStr% (24.6 K%). He actually gets a park downgrade in Atlanta. The Braves have a 101 wRC+ and 16.1 HR/FB vs LHP, but remade their lineup at the deadline. Four of eight batters in the projected lineup exceed a 26 K% vs LHP this season. Montgomery costs $2K less on FanDuel, where he may be the top value on the board.

Additionally reaching $9K on FanDuel and in the upper $8K range on DraftKings are Alek Manoah and Zack Greinke. Manoah was shelled by the Nats last time out, allowing more than two earned runs for only the third time in 12 starts. Strikeouts and SwStr% have been inconsistent. Overall numbers include a 19.8 K-BB% and 86.7 mph EV. A 3.34 ERA is right in line with a 3.37 xERA with additional estimators averaging a bit under four. The biggest issue here is that the White Sox have a 108 wRC+ vs RHP, although four of the projected nine exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this year. Manoah is a better value for $1.1K less on DraftKings.

Greinke followed up one of his highest strikeout totals of the season (seven) with a big fat zero. No walks, no home runs, just a single run and less than a point differential in his SwStr% over both starts though. An 80.3 LOB% is all that stands between him and an ERA above four this year, where all of his estimators reside. Greinke’s 17.9 K% is third lowest on the board. The Royals have an 85 wRC+ and 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP with five of their projected nine above a 25.5 K% vs RHP this year, but Greinke’s last start, the one without a strikeout, that was the Royals too.

The bottom line here is to consider skipping pitcher tonight if possible, but if that’s not an option, we only have four of 12 pitchers on the slate above a 21 K% tonight and they all have some pretty tough matchups, the only one not covered above is Huascar Ynoa (91.1 mph EV, 9.9% Barrels/BBE), facing the Yankees in Atlanta. The point is, you’re taking a sizeable risk, no matter what you do and if you’re considering paying down and looking at a higher floor instead, it’s not like Kyle Hendricks (4.04 ERA, 79.3 LOB%) has been safe either. His best estimators is a 4.49 xFIP. He may have the top matchup on the board against the Rockies though (65 wRC+, 9.4 HR/FB on the road, 76 wRC+ vs RHP).

The most interesting pitchers in potentially high upside spots include Eduardo Rodriguez (at Braves), Jordan Montgomery (at Blue Jays), Kwang-hyun Kim (vs Marlins), Luis Castillo (at Brewers) and Mike Minor (vs Tigers), particularly because you wouldn’t expect to see a couple of these spots on this list. Covering the most obvious pitchers first, the Tigers have a 75 wRC+ and 29.9 K% vs LHP, which makes a slightly above average pitcher (26.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 37.1 GB%, 88.4 mph EV, 10.2% Barrels/BBE, 3.84 SIERA, 3.99 xERA) fairly desirable in this spot. He’s struck out 17 of the 49 Tigers he’s faced this year. Minor is within $200 of $9K on either site and isn’t far removed from top overall pitcher consideration tonight. The regression monster has finally caught up to Kim, who has a 4.84 ERA, 5.08 FIP and 4.64 FIP over his last five starts, but he costs less than $7.5K at home against a Miami offense with an 89 wRC+ and 20.9 K-BB% vs LHP. He’s usable, if not especially coveted tonight.

Players could be thrown off Castillo’s trail, even in a great spot (Brewers 83 wRC+, 25.9 K% vs RHP) for obvious reasons. His ERA is above six and he’s completed six innings just twice this year. However, more optimistically, over his last five starts, Castillo has a 26.7 K% and 13.4 SwStr% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.5%) and just an 84.7 mph EV. Despite also having a .246 BABIP over that span, he has a 62.9 LOB% and 4.73 ERA. While he’s struck out more than five in just two of those games (and just three time this year), his swinging strike rate has been above 11% in four of five starts. It seems like Castillo may be starting to find his footing and could have some value for $8K or less tonight.

The Braves and Blue Jays are generally not teams you would think of as favorable matchups for pitchers. The Braves have a 102 wRC+ and 20.2 HR/FB vs LHP, while the Blue Jays have a 107 wRC+ and 14.9 HR/FB against southpaws. However, a quick peak at Plate IQ shows the projected Atlanta lineup tonight includes three batters above a 29 K% vs LHP since 2020 and the Toronto lineup with six batters above a 26 K%. Montgomery has a 24.3 K% (12.5 SwStr%) with a 3.99 ERA that runs fairly closely to most estimators (3.76 SIERA, 3.88 xERA). He’s a good pitcher at a marginal price ($7.6K on DK, $7.5K on FD) in a dangerous spot, but with more upside than suspected. If you believe in ERA estimators and regression, perhaps nobody in the league has more positive regression headed his way than Rodriguez. His 6.03 ERA is more than two runs above all of his non-DRA estimators. He’s struck out 25.8% of the batters he’s faced with a career best 6.3 BB% and isn’t even being hit that hard (88.1 mph EV, 7.7% Barrels/BBE). He had a .370 BABIP and has stranded just 64.1% of his runners. At $6.4K on FanDuel, Eduardo Rodriguez could be one of the top values on the board. At $7.8K on DraftKings, he’s a great GPP SP2 if the ERA is scaring players off.

Jordan Montgomery finished the season with a solid 24.4 K%, but the story here is that he struck out 24 of his last 66 batters with a 15.4 SwStr% to get there. If he can sustain and combine even his season ending rate with his penchant for creating soft contact (84.6 mph), the Yankees will have at least another strong mid-rotation arm for years to come. His 5.11 ERA was more than a run above all estimators except for 4.48 DRA, due to a 65 LOB%. This will be his first career post-season appearance and as we get deeper into these series, he may be the safest pick on the board. As of this writing, neither the Dodgers, nor Astros have confirmed starting pitchers, while the Padres and Rays are using Openers (though we can at least expect Ryan Yarbrough to get some innings here). The remaining options are Kyle Wright (3.6 K-BB%), Sixto Sanchez against perhaps the top offense against RHP in baseball or Frankie Montas against an Astros offense with a board low 19.8 K% vs RHP this year in a park that the ball has been jumping out of in this series. Montgomery will be facing a Tampa Bay offense with a 121 wRC+, 11.7 BB% and 22 HR/FB vs LHP. None of these options are safe. However, the Rays also have a board high 28.5 K% vs LHP. At $8.3K on FanDuel, Montgomery is the second lowest priced of the four currently confirmed starting pitchers with potentially the most value.

Jordan Montgomery is a talented lefty (12.1 SwStr% career), who often has difficulty finishing things off (21.8 K%, 5.3 IP per start career). While he has completed six innings in consecutive starts, he's failed to strike out more than five in a start this season. He faces an unimposing Minnesota offense beyond Brian Dozier (171 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP since 2017) and Miguel Sano (142 wRC+, .293 ISO), which PlateIQ tells us had a .309 wOBA and .144 ISO vs LHP since last season even with those two lefty mashers. This, in addition to a 24 K%. Montgomery has been league average against right-handed batters (.302 wOBA, .312 xwOBA career) and can be plugged into lineups at exactly $7.8K on either site against a team with a 3.96 implied run line. The Yankees are the afternoon stack. They're 5.54 implied run line tops the slate by more than a half run and Kyle Gibson is back to his old frustrating self. Sometimes he's good, sometimes he walks the park, sometimes he gives up runs, sometimes he doesn't. He actually has a career high 21.3 K% to go along with his 11.5 SwStr% this year, but he's likely to be over-whelmed by this powerful lineup with five batters (Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin and Miguel Andujar) all above a 150 wRC+ and 39 Hard% over the last week. While Gibson has no split via actual wOBA, his xwOBA actually puts RHBs at .380 against him since last season (LHBs .318) despite the ground ball rate more than seven points higher (54.1% vs RHBs, 46.6% vs LHBs). Every single batter in the Yankee lineup with more than 30 PAs against RHP since last season (omitting just Gleyber Torres) has at least a 119 wRC+ and Brett Gardner (.177 ISO) is the only one below a .215 ISO.

Jordan Montgomery misses bats at an above average rate (22.5 K%, 12.6 SwStr%) with an 86.7 mph aEV and respectable 31.1 95+ mph EV. The issue is that he generally doesn't get very deep in games. He's thrown 100 pitches only five times this year and more than 90 for the first time in six starts last time out. The Baltimore offense has a 109 wRC+ at home (17.4 HR/FB), 104 wRC+ vs LHP and 130 wRC+ over the last week (19.0 HR/FB). RHBs (which the Baltimore lineup almost entirely consists of) have a .302 wOBA and 27.8 Hard%, but with just a 39.9 GB% against him. The Orioles have an implied run line of exactly five runs (fourth most on the day slate) with Kevin's forecast suggesting wind blowing out to center at 10 mph. While Trey Mancini has surprisingly struggled with LHP (83 wRC+, .138 ISO), Welington Castillo (174 wRC+, .256 ISO), Manny Machado (117 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Jonathan Schoop (155 wRC+, .306 ISO) are all serious threats. Tim Beckham (112 wRC+, .169 ISO), Adam Jones (100 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Mark Trumbo (106 wRC+, .176 ISO) have all been more average against southpaws this year.