MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, July 11th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a 6:05 PM ET start time on this hot Thursday afternoon. There is some nice hitting weather across the country and a few bad pitchers on the bump today. Let’s check it out.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, July 11th
CHALKY OPTO STACK
Mariners at Jack Kochanowicz
According to our Top Stacks tool, Seattle is currently projected as the most popular stack on DraftKings and ranks 2nd in the department on FanDuel. But not all chalk is bad chalk, as the Mariners currently project as the Opto% stack of the slate by a considerable margin. Let’s find out why.
Seattle will duel with Jack Kochanowicz, who is making his MLB debut. I suppose that’s one gigantic reason why models like the Mariners. I’ve seen nothing that makes me feel good about Kochanowicz at the MLB level. He posted a 4.55 ER in AA ball this season, one year after he posted a 6.53 ERA at the same level. And in AAA…well…he never even pitched in AAA! Across all levels, he owns a strikeout rate of less than 20%.
Kochanowicz has done a decent job at keeping the ball on the ground, but there has been plenty of hard contact against him throughout his career. T-Mobile Park ranks dead last in Savant’s park factors for hitters, but Kochanowicz will be making his debut at Angel Stadium, which ranks 9th this season. When he’s finished, the M’s will face a bullpen that has coughed up 42 homers and owns the 4th-worst ERA.
You can get four of the projected Seattle starters for $3,800 or less on DraftKings. Additionally, Mitch Garver, Julio Rodriguez, Luke Raley, and Cal Raleigh have all posted an ISO rate of at least .180 across the last 30 days vs. RHP. Perhaps Rodriguez is finally coming around, as his barrel rate in the last month is twice that of his season average against RHP.
WEATHER STACKS
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