MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday (July 27)
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
It’s just a three-game slate tonight, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be fun! Two of these spots seem to have great hitting weather, so it’s possible we see some fireworks despite not having many stacks to choose from.
Chalk Stack – Mets vs. Josiah Gray
The DFS world doesn’t care that Josiah Gray was an all-star this season. Gray struggled mightily with serving up the long ball prior to 2023. He’s made some adjustments, but he still ranks top-40 in baseball in homers allowed.
A majority of his numbers seem simply average. He’s yielding a .158 ISO, 10% walk rate 43% hard-contact rate, and striking out only 20% of batters. Gray has a shiny 3.45 ERA, but his xERA and FIP are both at least a full run higher.
Still, Gray is a solid pitcher, but there is another caveat here – there is fantastic hitting weather in New York, which doesn’t sound great for a pitcher with historically bad power problems.
According to Roth’s WeatherEdge tool (despite a laughable 2-game sample size), these conditions warrant a 46% boost in home run chances and total runs scored with a 39% bump to ERA.
While that sample size is minuscule, the model still picked up on it. Roth confirmed on his weather page that this game is a bump to bats. It’s HOT!
Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez have both been a bit more reverse-splits power hitters in 2023 (I mean, Alonso hits everyone), so they would be a few of my first clicks in this stack.
Our top stacks and top values tool projects the Mets to be the chalkiest stack at the worst differential between optimal percentage and ownership.
Despite the bad differential, it’s a funky three-gamer and the Mets are checking in with the second-highest chance to be optimal.
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