MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, June 1
Keith Eyster walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a small, four-game main slate that begins at 1:07 PM ET on both sites today. There is pitching to spend up for, with Kevin Gausman in a plus matchup. And we also get a slight discount on Max Scherzer, who it seems has been rounding into form recently. There are only eight offenses to pick from, but it seems one clearly stands out above the rest.
Chalk Stack – Diamondbacks vs. Chase Anderson
Arizona has the highest team total on the board by over half a run and is the only team implied to score over five runs. They get a matchup against journeyman Chase Anderson, who has been extremely fortunate in his first 20.2 innings this season. He has just 1.31 ERA, but he has allowed only a .226 BABIP and 4.3% HR/FB rate.
His career numbers coming into this season sat at a .280 BABIP allowed and 13.5% HR/FB rate, so we can expect some major regression to be coming his way. Estimators like xFIP (5.11) and SIERA (5.24) also reveal just how fortunate Anderson has been. His control has been solid (6.3% walk rate), but he has barely missed any bats at all (12.5% strikeout rate).
The matchup is not the only positive for Arizona. They have been an above average offense versus right-handed pitching this season, owning the seventh-best wOBA (.331) and wRC+ (105) in the league. Five hitters in the projected order have posted an ISO of at least .191 versus RHP this season, and only two hitters have struck out at a rate higher than 20.0%.
Their elite options like Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Christian Walker are all priced below $4,000 on FanDuel. And only Marte is priced above $5,000 on DraftKings. Pavin Smith stands out as a great value if he leads off again, with Josh Rojas (FD), Geraldo Perdomo, and Jake McCarthy offering additional salary relief options.
It is a bit too easy to build an Arizona stack and pay up for pitching, which is going to lead to them easily being the highest owned offense on the slate. I would caution against using Kevin Gausman and a premium Dbacks stack in the same lineup, unless you are willing to go way off the board with your remaining roster spots.
That being said, all 9 hitters are in play, and if you are willing to use some bats that are buried in the order, there are ways to lower the total ownership of the lineup. Leaving a significant amount of salary on the table could be a viable alternative as well.
Their appeal is undeniable, but I definitely think you need to have ownership in mind for every tournament format when filling out the remainder of the lineup on this short slate.
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