MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, March 28th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
What’s up, everyone?! It felt like the 2023 campaign just ended, but here we are about to jump into another MLB season. I got back from my Atlantic City high-stakes auction draft on Sunday, and that’s when the season typically feels…well, real to me!
FanDuel and DraftKings have wasted no time differentiating both featured slates. Surprise! FanDuel kicks off at 3:05 PM ET and will offer the LAA/BAL and ATL/PHI games. DraftKings will start at 4:10 PM ET and not include either of those contests.
Let’s get after it.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, March 28th
Chalk Stack – Reds vs. Josiah Gray
Cincy has one of the most talented young cores in all of baseball. They will take on the Nationals, who will open up the 2024 season with Gray on the mound.
First off, we have a fantastic ballpark for runs to be scored. The Great American “Smallpark” ranked 4th in Baseballsavant’s park factor for hitting and 1st for home runs.
Although Gray has slightly improved every season as a pro, he still owns a career fly ball rate of over 40%, and he recorded an xFIP over 5.00 last season. His xFIP ranked 14th worst in baseball out of 127 pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings in 2023. Gray added a cutter to his arsenal last season, which helped limit more damage, but he still struggled with control, issuing walks at an 11.5% rate.
A right-handed pitcher is good news for Elly De La Cruz. Last season, Cruz hit 11 of his 13 home runs vs. RHP, with a batting average of .71 points higher compared to LHP. We should also see Jake Fraley in the lineup, who hit 15 home runs in just over 300 at-bats vs. RHP in 2023. Switch-hitting newcomer Jeimer Candelario hit 16 of his 22 home runs against RHP as well.
The Top Stacks tool has the Reds with the highest Opto% and a 2nd-ranked Top Value . It’s worth noting, however, that the projected ownership (pOWN) on both sites is higher than the Reds’ Opto%.
This game has an implied total of 9 runs, with Cincy as the favorite. When Gray exits, the Reds will see a Nats bullpen that led MLB with 94 home runs last season with an ERA over 5.00. It’s just a great spot for Cincy on Opening Day.
Value Stack
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