MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, May 16th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Another Thursday, another small slate. We have two pay-up pitching studs to choose from, Tyler Glasnow and Jared Jones. I like the idea of starting a lineup with one of them, but there are a few volatile, cheaper SP2s to pick from instead of playing both together.
That being said, I don’t think salary will be a huge issue for stacks unless you are using those pocket aces (and that’s not my personal preference, but I understand it). Let’s figure out which of those volatile pitchers to stack against.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, May 16th
CHALK STACK
Astros vs. Joey Estes
Estes was spectacular in his first career win last week against the Mariners, striking out 6 in 5 innings of 1-run ball. But it sounds like shenanigans to me.
After an impressive 3.28 ERA at Double-A last season, Estes owned an ERA over 5.00 when he was promoted to the next level. He coughed up 28 total homers last season and gave up multiple home runs in 4 of his 7 Triple-A appearances at the end of last season.
In Triple-A this season, before he was called up last week, Estes had an ERA over 6.00 across 28 innings, while giving up a home run in just about every 4-ish innings pitched. Estes’ first MLB start this season was against the inconsistent, strikeout-heavy Mariners – and this is a much different matchup.
Despite a dreadful start, Houston owns the lowest strikeout rate, ranks 7th in wRC+, and ranks 8th in wOBA against RHP this season. I believe Houston is good chalk on this small slate. It’s a smash spot for their studs, who could totally break the slate against a homer-prone pitcher in his fourth career MLB appearance. I’m banking on some serious regression after Estes’ stellar outing five days ago.
I will be curious to see if it changes as things move around, but the Top Stacks tool is not a huge fan of the Astros as of late this morning. However, I still think there is plenty of merit to backing them. Count me in.
PIVOT STACK
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