MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, May 23rd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We only have a few baseball games today, with an early, tiny main slate kicking off at 12:35 ET on each site. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be some fireworks.
Let’s dive in.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, May 23rd
CHALK STACK
Padres at Frankie Montas
Our Top Stacks tool is still crunching today’s numbers, so take my pOWN% estimate with a grain of salt. I expect a few teams to carry some ownership, but my guess is the Padres are leading the pack – but maybe just by a nose.
Montas is just an average pitcher who goes through spurts where he gets hit extremely hard (50% this season), and he’s now given up 5 earned runs in 3 of his last 6 appearances.
Playing at the Great American Ballpark is also a massive upgrade for the Padres bats. Baseball Savant ranks Petco Park 28th, but today’s venue is 4th in their Park Factors rating. Both teams in this game currently have the 2nd-highest implied run total (4.75), but I favor San Diego in this one.
Montas has struggled with lefties, striking out just 14.3% of them while yielding a 10.7% walk rate and a .205 ISO. Luis Arraez, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Cronenworth make a ton of sense. The Padres rank 2nd in wRC+ vs. RHP in May, and they’ll have a shot to keep rolling on Thursday.
I really like the stud pitchers on this slate, which means salary could be an issue. But the projected Padres lineup only has one hitter with a salary higher than $5,000 on DraftKings. For comparison’s sake, Texas has 3 hitters north of $5,000, Atlanta has 4, and New York’s 2 best hitters are both above $6,000.
PIVOT STACK
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