Frankie Montas Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

With only 12 pitchers available on FanDuel tonight, one bullpen game and two $11K pitchers, there are probably only a couple of other arms you might consider using with a single pitcher slot and both carry a lot of volatility. Projecting as the second or third best overall arm on either board and a top two value on either, Franke Montas is coming off his best of four starts as a Yankee, striking out six of 24 Mets with just two runs over six innings. It’s difficult to figure out immediately what was responsible. It may have just been that the Mets were exhausted from eight games in seven days in Atlanta and Philly without a day off, but the Yankees will take it, as Montas had allowed 14 runs over his first 14 innings with the team, striking out just eight of 68. Hopefully, his most recent start at least quelled some concerns about lingering shoulder issues. He’s still gone six innings in just one of his last seven starts though. Season numbers, which include a 17.2 K-BB%, are fine, though he may not be considered the front of the rotation arm Oakland thought they might be trading a few months ago. A 3.95 xERA is the only estimators above his 3.84 ERA, though all are within half a run. The Angels are a bottom five offense against both fastballs (-0.62 wFB/C) and Splitters (-2.49 wFS/C), which make up 75% of Montas’s arsenal. He struck out a season high 12 of 24 Angels in an earlier season start against them, but left a second one after just six batters with an injury. They have a 94 wRC+ and 26.8 K% vs RHP this season.

You may never know what to expect out of Jose Berrios before the game starts, but will probably know where you stand pretty quickly after it does. He’s struck out 15 of his last 50 batters with four runs allowed over his last 12.2 innings pitched, but struck out just two of 41 with 13 runs over 7.2 innings in his previous two. Overall, he has a league average 21.2 K% with good control (5.7 BB%) and a disastrous contact profile (11.1% Barrels/BBE) with 27 of 46 barrels leaving the yard (16.3 HR/FB). Estimators range widely, from a 3.93 SIERA to a 5.25 xERA that nearly matches his 5.28 ERA. The Cubs have a 98 wRC+ and 23.1 K% vs RHP. Berrios projects as the fourth best FanDuel value ($8.5K) and sixth best on DraftKings ($7.6K).

Ranger Suarez has shown signs of last year’s version, but hasn’t been able to do it with any consistency. Following a pair of seven inning starts with a single run allowed against the Mets and Reds on the road, he returned home to strike out five of 26 Reds with four walks. We can at least say that the contact profile (55.8 GB%, 86.6 mph EV, 6.4% Barrels/BBE, 31.1 mph EV) has been more consistent than the peripherals (11.3 K-BB%) or workload. He has at least seven innings in five of his last 16 starts, but only six innings two other times. A 3.38 ERA is below all estimators, but runs more closely to contact inclusive ones (3.58 xERA). Problematically, he’s fairly expensive at $8.8K, though he is in a favorable spot (Diamondbacks 90 wRC+, 23.0 K% vs LHP). Suarez projects as a better FanDuel value, despite the higher price.

In terms of a DraftKings SP2 type punt, Brayan Bello returned to the majors after a three week absence to strike out a career high seven of 21 Blue Jays (15.8 SwStr%) to bring his 22 inning rate to 20.4% (11.0 SwStr%). Walks have been a problem (11.1%), but 67.6% of his contact has been on the ground with just an 87.2 mph EV and two barrels (2.8%). While the contact profile is far from stabilizing, Bello did strike out AA and AAA batters at a rate above 30% over the last couple of years, but with some control issues. The 23 year-old does have a 50 Future Value grade from Fangraphs, who rank him as the team’s third best prospect and 38th among the top 100. Bello would be wise to toss lots of changeups (23.8%, -0.6 RV/100, 43.6 Whiff%, .291 xwOBA) at the Twins. It’s his best pitch and the one they perform worse against (-0.2 wCH/C is sixth worst in the league). They have a 112 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP, but Bello costs less than $6K.

The prevailing theme to tonight’s nine game slate is weather. And not the favorable kind either. We’re already down one game in Washington, while Kevin has also labelled the game between the Giants and Mets in New York and Rays and Cubs in Chicago as potentially troublesome. This is a major disappointment because it likely takes Alex Cobb, Tylor Megill and Shane McClanahan, all velocity increasers who have looked dominant in early starts, off the board. The lone $10K pitcher tonight on either and both sites is Clayton Kershaw. You may remember that the evil, moustache twirling Dave Roberts intentionally broke baseball when you removed Kershaw from a perfect game with just 80 pitches after seven innings last week. He struck out 13 of the 21 Twins he faced with a 23.8 SwStr% and just a 78.8 mph EV on eight batted balls. In 22 starts last year, Kershaw produced a 25.2 K-BB% and allowed just 6.9% Barrels/BBE. Of course, the problem in recent years has been staying off the IL, as he has a two year rolling SIERA of just 3.03. The projected Atlanta lineup the Dodgers will host includes five batters with a .315 or lower wOBA against LHP since last season, but not a ton of strikeouts and we have to be concerned with Kershaw’s workload again. Of course, if he repeats his effort against the Twins, neither cost, nor workload will be a factor. None the less, he would seem a risky roster. While he is projected neither for the most fantasy points (PlateIQ), nor highest ownership, he is top four on either site in both categories.

Aaron Nola, Sean Manaea and Tylor Megill reach the $9K price point on both sites. Nola struck out seven of the 23 A’s he faced without a walk, but allowed two home runs. He came back against the Mets to strike out five of 17, but with three walks and two hit batsmen. Now he has to pitch at Coors. Although 59.1% of his contact has been on the ground, he’s still allowed three home runs on four barrels (18.2%). The Philadelphia defense probably isn’t going to help him (though they rate as a top team in Outs Above Average through a week and a half), but Nola also has to help himself first. While there are several pitchers projected to have better nights, ownership expectations are nearly zero.

Manaea has pitched 13 quality innings for his new team, striking out 13 of 45 batters (11.5 SwStr%) with just three walks. His lone barrel allowed stayed in the yard. Manaea is looking to build on a career best 20.3 K-BB% (21.1% in just 29.2 innings in 2019) last year. He has a solid two year rolling SIERA of just 3.73. He’s a keeper at home against the Reds (50 wRC+ last seven days, 48 wRC+ vs LHP so far), but everyone knows it. Megill has struck out 11 of 36 batters (16 SwStr%) with a 52.2 GB% and just a single barrel (4%). He has not issued a walk yet. In addition to a nearly two mph velocity spike as well, the shape of his secondary pitches have changed too, resulting in all around improvement. Ownership projections are low against a quality lineup, but one that offers a ton of strikeouts in a pitcher friendly park, but again…weather.

Frankie Montas is $9.9K on FanDuel, but just $7.3K on DK, where he’s easily the top value. In fact, he’s tonight’s top projected pitcher overall, but also the top projected ownership rate. Montas has struck out 12 of 47 batters (16 SwStr%) with just a single walk through two starts (at Rays and at Phillies). He looks to continue building on a fantastic season last year, in which he had a 19.3 K-BB% with estimators below four. The A’s face the Orioles in their home debut. Luis Garcia is nearly $3K less on FanDuel ($6.7K). He was pulled after 16 batters (71 pitches in his first start), walking two Diamondbacks with just a single strikeout (5.6 SwStr%). The good news is that he was up a mile and a half per hour on his fastball (94.8) in Arizona. He’ll also face a projected Angels’ lineup that includes just one batter below a 24.5 K% vs RHP since last season and omits Mike Trout. Shane McClanahan costs $9.2K on FD ($8.1K DK). He’s struck out 15 of 38 batters (18.3 SwStr%), but also walked five, failing to get through five innings in either start, despite facing 19 batters in each. Statcast suggests his velocity is up nearly a mph on his four-seamer this year (97.3). McClanahan did have some barrel issues last year (10.7%), but was otherwise fantastic (20.1 K-BB%) and may be even better this year. However, again,…weather. If they do get it in, it’ll be near freezing, but with a strong wind blowing out to RF.

Four pitchers reach the $10K price point on a 12 game Tuesday night slate with Gerrit Cole the only one to do so on both sites. Cole left his last start against the Blue Jays with some hamstring tightness after striking out just two of 18 batters with as many walks and a home run,, but prior to that he had been dominant, striking out 39 of 96 batters with just two runs allowed over 24.2 innings. His 2.78 ERA fits perfectly into estimators ranging from a 2.65 FIP to a 2.91 xERA and his 34.7 K% is the top strikeout rate on the board by more than six points. Without the hamstring concerns, he’s the top pitcher on the board in Baltimore with seven batters in the projected opposing lineup exceeding a 24 K% vs RHP. However, the hamstring issue may be enough of a concern to pull him back slightly towards the pack and make players consider going under on him in GPPs.

The second most expensive pitcher on the board, Lucas Giolito is within $200 of $10K on either site and he also returns from a two week IL stint due to, guess what…a hamstring injury. If Cole were to be compromised and Giolito prove fully healthy and on a normal workload, he could challenge for the top spot tonight. Giolito will occasionally throw in a stinker and that’s what happened last time out against the Pirates, walking four of 20 batters and failing to complete five innings (possibly due to the hamstring issue). None the less, his season numbers remain strong with a 20.8 K-BB% and while only one-third of his contact has been on the ground, he’s only allowed 7.1% Barrels/BBE. A 3.69 ERA is directly in line with a 3.70 SIERA with a 3.36 xERA being his only estimator lower. David Fletcher is the only batter in the projected lineup facing Giolito with a strikeout rate below 22.7%. Considering that the White Sox don’t need to rush Giolito back with the AL Central locked up, we could probably be less concerned about his health, but also more concerned about how conservative they’ll be with his workload.

Nathan Eovaldi is exactly $10K on FD, but $400 less on DK, while Franke Montas $10K on DK, but $700 less on FD. We bunch these pitchers together because they’ve both been on fire, are in favorable road spots and have no injury concerns. Eovaldi has allowed nine of his 14 home runs over his last eight starts (though none last time out), but also has a 29.8 K% (25.4 K-BB%) over his last 11 starts, which the Red Sox and daily fantasy players will take. His 3.57 ERA this season is within a quarter run of all non-FIP estimators. The projected Seattle lineup has three batters above a 29 K% vs RHP this season. This is also a massive park upgrade against an offense with just a 92 wRC+ vs RHP. Montas has not continued to strike out batters at a ridiculous rate, but has struck out at least one-quarter of the batters he’s faced in 11 straight starts, failing to produce a quality start just once over this stretch. In fact, he’s recorded seventh inning outs in four straight starts, completing seven innings with a single run or less in three of them. His 3.57 ERA this season is below all non-FIP estimators, though not reach four. Five batters in the projected lineup for the Royals exceed a 27 K% vs RHP. With Cole & Giolito potentially compromised, Eovaldi and Montas (both pitching for teams in the Wild Card hunt) might be the best pitchers on the board.

Jose Berrios and Marcus Stroman are the only other two pitchers on the board to cost at least $9K on both sites. On the season, Jose Berrios has a 3.52 ERA, 3.51 FIP and 3.63 xFIP. In eight starts with the Blue Jays: 3.63/3.34/3.76. That seems remarkably consistent, despite being remarkably inconsistent from start to start. He has struck out 32 of his last 96 though, to bring his season strikeout rate up to 26%, but he’s done this facing predominantly right-handed lineups while a large platoon split that the Rays may be able to better exploit, has been one of his biggest issues. LHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and .200 ISO against Berrios this year and the Rays can nearly fill a lineup with them, though just three of the projected nine have a strikeout rate below 23.7% against RHP this year. Stroman has four quality starts in his last five attempts and while his 2.87 ERA is below all of his estimators this season, only his xERA (4.17) is above four. He has a career low ground ball rate and career high strikeout rate, but that’s still half his contact on the ground (50.5%) with a near average strikeout rate (21.6%). He pitches against a below average offense (89 wRC+ vs RHP) in a favorable park, but with just three batters in the projected opposing lineup exceeding a 21 K% vs RHP, Stroman might lack the upside necessary for the price.

Although only one player reaches the $10K price point on either site, Wednesday’s main slate is a high priced board with four additional pitchers costing at least $9K on both sites. On a nine game slate, that makes up one-third of the board. Problematically, the most expensive pitcher on the board is Freddy Peralta on DraftKings ($10.2). Problematic, not necessarily because his last two outings surrounding an IL stint didn’t go very well, but because they were both very short (two innings, 12 batters each). He’s thrown a total of 96 pitches since the 10th of August, nearly a month. Without the workload concerns, he’d be a great choice and perhaps the top pitcher on the board. Peralta’s 34.0 K% leads the slate by quite a bit. His 2.70 ERA is nearly matched by a 2.66 xERA (86.4 mph EV, 5.3% Barrels/BBE), though additional estimators exceed three. However, a full workload is likely not the circumstances we’re dealing with tonight. According to PlateIQ, there are currently three batters in the Philadelphia projected lineup above a 23 K% vs RHP this season, so it’s not a particularly high upside spot for an expensive pitcher in a neutral environment with a potentially limited workload.

Adam Wainwright is exactly $10K on FanDuel. He’s thrown nine straight quality starts, recording seventh inning outs in all but one with a 17.4 K-BB%. While that’s due more to elite control (4.6%), he’s still striking out batters at nearly a league average rate. In fact, his 22.6 K% for the season is his highest mark since 2013. While his 2.91 ERA is at least half a run below all estimators (78.9 LOB%), all are below four. Now for the bad news. Wainwright is facing the Dodgers (108 wRC+ vs RHP) with only three batters in the projected lineup above a 20 K% vs RHP this season. That said, St Louis suppresses power (the park, not the city of course) and Wainwright costs nearly $2K less ($8.1K) on DraftKings, where he may still be a strong value.

Nathan Eovaldi is actually the only pitcher on the entire slate costing at least $9.5K on both sites. Interestingly, he has allowed a total of 14 home runs this year and nine of them have come in his last seven starts with at least one in six of them. However, he’s also riding a 32 K% over his last five starts, over which he has just a 2.35 ERA. All season estimators are below his 3.73 ERA, but only his FIP (2.92), ironically, by more than a quarter of a run. This is a really tough spot for Eovaldi too. The Rays have a 111 wRC+ vs RHP and 149 wRC+ over the last seven days and whereas there used to be a ton of strikeouts in this lineup, half the projected lineup is below a 20 K% vs RHP this year. Then there’s also the matter of a solidly positive run environment with a potential weather boost that could make it play nearly like Coors tonight. Eovaldi may be excessively priced under these circumstances. Eovaldi’s opponent, Shane McClanahan has a 3.76 ERA that’s above most of his estimators due to a .343 BABIP to go along with his 20.6 K-BB%, but the contact profile here is a bit of an issue, as his 4.65 xERA is nearly a run above his ERA. His 45.0 GB% is above average, but his 91.2 mph EV has still generated 9.8% Barrels/BBE. The 28 K% has limited the damage and a 15.3 SwStr% suggests even more is possible, but he’ll either need to realize that strikeout potential or cut back on the hard contact to take the next step. Of course, he’s dealing with the same environment against a good offense (Red Sox 104 wRC+ vs LHP, just two in projected lineup above a 21.1 K% vs LHP).

Whatever has been ailing Yu Darvish has not been fixed by a trip to the IL. Darvish now has a 7.57 ERA in 44 innings since the start of July, allowing at least four runs in seven of nine starts. Optimistically, you have a 22.2 K-BB% over that span with a 3.58 xFIP, but he’s also allowed 13 home runs (25 HR/FB) and 14 barrels (10.6%) for a 5.33 FIP, while his velocity has been steadily declining. That the Angels lose the DH and that likely means Shohei Ohtani and that San Diego is a negative run environment helps, but this is getting concerning. The projected lineup for the Angels includes just two below a 24 K% vs RHP this season and Darvish does cost just $9K on FanDuel.

Saving the best for last, perhaps, Frankie Montas may be the top pitcher on the board tonight. Although he’s allowed exactly three runs four times in his last 10 starts, Montas has allowed no more than that and has thrown nine quality starts in that span with a 32.5 K%. While the contact profile (89.9 mph EV, 9.1% Barrels/BBE) has kept his xERA above four (4.07), additional estimators are all within one-third of a run of his 3.68 ERA. The White Sox don’t represent an easy matchup at all (108 wRC+ vs RHP) with marginal strikeout rates (everyone in the projected lineup between an 18.9% and 25.4 K% vs RHP), but Oakland remains one of the more negative run environments in the league. At exactly $9K on either site, Montas may just be the top value on the board as well.

Your $10K pitchers on Monday night are Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman with Frankie Montas within $100 of $9.5K on either site. No other pitcher on the slate reaches $9K on either site. Cole makes his return from the COVID IL, where he spent a bit over two weeks without a rehab start. The Yankee broadcast on Sunday noted that he would not be limited, but also suggested they’d be careful to not over-work him…whatever that means. Cole had struck out at least eight in four straight, including against Boston twice and Houston, immediately before hitting the IL, though the Rays did tag him for eight runs (seven earned) in his last start on July 29th. The Angels have a 99 wRC+ and more importantly, seven of nine in the projected lineup tonight exceed a 24 K% vs RHP. Yankee Stadium is generally a negative run environment, according to Statcast Park Factors, though Weather Edge currently gives enough of a bump to make it a positive one. However, if Cole is truly unlimited tonight, he’s the clear top pitcher on the board in a high upside matchup and potentially one of the top values. His recent absence may even keep his ownership more reasonable.

Gausman has been fairly average with a 12.8 BB%, 4.20 ERA, 4.17 FIP and 4.14 xFIP over his last eight starts. He’s gone beyond five innings in just one of his last five starts. However, he still owns a 21.9 K-BB% with a 3.54 SIERA his highest estimator on the season and pitches in a negative run environment, where he’ll face a struggling offense, traveling across country after a Sunday night drubbing from the Dodgers. The Mets have a 90 wRC+ vs RHP and five of eight in the projected lineup have at least a 22.5 K% vs RHP this season. If we go by Gausman’s season stats, he’s fine here and compares favorably to any other pitcher on a per daily fantasy dollar basis. However, recent performance, and it’s been a long enough stretch, may give some pause, but could also lower ownership.

Over his last six starts, Montas has a 35.4 K% (18.8 SwStr%), 6.3 BB%, 2.39 ERA and 2.40 xFIP. On the season, he has a 19.9 K-BB% and 3.98 ERA within one-third of a run of all of his estimators with only his xERA (4.04) above four. He gets a park downgrade in Chicago, with Weather Edge currently suggesting a somewhat neutral run environment may be slightly positive tonight. It’s a touch matchup. The White Sox have a 118 wRC+ and 17.3 HR/FB at home. However, five of nine in the projected lineup are above a 24 K% vs RHP this year. Montas may be the top value on the board, considering Gausman’s recent struggles and the slight possibility for the Yankees to be cautious with Cole, though all three are viable with these concerns (including Montas’s matchup), potentially spreading ownership evenly.

The middle of the board has quite a bit to offer tonight in terms of starting pitching and we’re going to try to quickly cover several names here. Alex Cobb has issued seven of his 25 walks this season over his last two starts behind a velocity increase. Over his last three starts (two earned runs, 19.2 IP), Cobb has dropped his ERA below four though, where his estimators have stood all season on the basis of a 26.2 K%, 54.9 GB% and 3.6% Barrels/BBE. A Minnesota lineup without Nelson Cruz projects not only less power, but four batters above 30 K% vs RHP this year. The league average ERA and estimators for a starting pitcher are around 4.20 this season. Has anyone noticed that Johnny Cueto is below that (4.01 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 4.05 FIP). Okay, his remaining estimators are a bit higher with a 4.83 xERA being the most pessimistic, but he’s been more than a serviceable fifth starter in an unexpectedly loaded rotation. The 20.1 K% is respectable with great control (4.6 BB%). He’s in a favorable run prevention spot (Pirates 87 wRC+, 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a negative run environment for $7.5K on DraftKings, where he’s not going to win anyone a GPP, but could hold the fort as an SP2.

About a month ago, Eduardo Rodriguez was the most obvious regression candidate in the league with estimators nearly around three runs below an enormous ERA and right on cue, he has a 2.83 ERA over his last five starts while those estimators have gotten even better. Aside from a rogue 4.18 DRA, all are packed tightly between a 3.34 xFIP and 3.65 xFIP. With a 21.9 K-BB% and 87.1 mph EV, one wonders how this man still has a 5.19 ERA. While the Yankees have a 112 wRC+ and 17.7 HR/FB vs LHP, the lineup is a bit light at the moment, but the unfavorable run environment is a concern. Another lefty with a somewhat difficult matchup (A’s 101 wRC+ vs LHP), but a much more favorable park is Yusei Kikuchi. Partially because he pitches in a division with some strong right-handed hitting, Kikuchi seems to be facing a lefty-mashing lineup nearly every time out, yet he has still prevailed with an ERA, SIERA and xFIP all below four, though the FIP (22.5 HR/FB), DRA and xERA (91.1 mph EV, 9.8% Barrels/BBE) stretch to nearly four and a half. Kikuchi has struck out 25.2% of the batters he’s faced and may be a bit better than his contact profile suggests against more neutral competition. Really. Go look at his game log.

Frankie Montas’s 4.33 ERA is very much in line with his DRA (4.39) and xERA (4.27), but those are the worst of his estimators with the remainder below four, though only his FIP (3.73) stretches more than half a run from actual results. Montas has an above average strikeout rate (24.4%) with good control (6.3%), though the contact profile can get him in trouble occasionally (9.6% Barrels/BBE). Montas has nine quality starts this season and there’s a lot to like in his matchup. Seattle is one of the most negative run environments in the league, while the projected home lineup includes five batters above a 26.5 K% vs RHP this year. For less than $9K, Montas has the opportunity to be the top value on the board. The last pitcher of interest is Zach Plesac, who hasn’t been very efficient in two starts back from the IL (10 IP – 40 BF – 5 ER – 3 HR – 1 BB – 7 K). In fact, it’s starting to look like his strikeout spike last year was a fluke. Or, perhaps, it’s this year’s 16.4 K% is the fluke with a 12.1 SwStr%. The control has been elite (4.7 BB%) with more than half his contact on the ground (52.1%). We should probably expect an increase in strikeout rate, potentially starting tonight with the Rays, whose projected lineup includes six batters above a 26 K% vs RHP.

On a six game slate, three pitchers exceed $9K on both sites, while Yu Darvish is the only pitcher to reach $10K and he does so on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Darvish’s strikeout rate is down to 23.9% over his last five starts, which should probably not be a surprise, considering his 12.1 SwStr% this season is only half a point above his 11.6 SwStr% over the last 30 days. He’s struck out exactly five in four of these five starts. On a more positive note, his 40.5 GB% over the last month brings his season rate up to 34.1%, though a home run in each of his last four starts nearly doubles his season total to nine. With just an 86.6 mph EV and 5.3% Barrels/BBE, a 2.78 xERA is closest to his 2.57 ERA. All other estimators are above three (.254 BABIP, 82 LOB%). The Dodgers have a 120 wRC+ vs RHP and are missing basically every key LHB, but they still have a team 118 wRC+ over the last week and only three batters in the projected lineup below a .340 wOBA or .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. Consider that Darvish may be over-valued.

A theme you may notice on tonight’s slate is that is flush with pitchers who generally see larger workloads. Half of tonight’s pitchers are averaging at least 23 batters faced per game. While Julio Urias is one of those pitchers, he’s been doing it with a lower pitch count than most. In fact, he’s just coming off a season high 96 pitches against the Phillies. He’s walked six over his last four starts, which doesn’t seem like a lot and isn’t (6.3%), but he’s only walked 13 all year and the ultra-efficiency is what generally allows him to pitch deeper into games. For example, over these last four starts, he’s only completed six innings once after having done so seven times in his first ten starts. Hence, we have a pitcher who’s efficiency makes it look like he’s being allowed a larger workload than he really is. At a cost within $100 of $9K on either site, that’s a problem against a San Diego offense that may have just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP, but also just a 13 K-BB%. The lack of production stems more from a 12.1 HR/FB against left-handed pitching. At full health though, this is a projected lineup including four batters above a .200 ISO vs LHP since last season.

Finally, we come to potentially the top pitcher on the board tonight…Frankie Montas??? With his velocity creeping up, Montas has a 28.8 K% (14.3 SwStr%) over his last five starts. With everything else remaining the same (walks, batted ball and contact profiles), it drops his estimators over that span to somewhere around three, around a run below current estimators. All but a 4.04 xERA (9.9% Barrels/BBE) are now below four on the year now. Half of Montas’s 14 starts have been at least six innings with three runs or less or what we call quality starts. The opposition in Texas has just an 82 wRC+ at home and 88 wRC+ vs RHP, striking out a quarter of the time in both instances. Five of the projected nine exceed a 27 K% against RHP since last season. Frankie Montas is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel (third on DraftKings), within $100 of $9.5K on either site, but he could potentially be the top arm on the board tonight.

Unfortunately, the only really favorable matchup on a six game Thursday night slate is being offered to Chi Chi Gonzalez in Miami, to which we can easily say no thank you to his 12.3 K%. So, if not the top guys, then who? Three more pitchers appear as if they can be useful on this slate. Facing Scherzer will be Anthony DeSclafani. Ten of the 26 runs he has surrendered came in one outing against the Dodgers, but he’s struck out just 10 of his last 64, starting with that outing and has just a 21.4 K% on the year. With a good chunk of his contact on the ground (49.2%) and decent control (7.4%) with an exit velocity just below 90 mph (89.9), estimators range from a 3.61 xERA to a 4.20 SIERA, all at least a bit above his 3.51 ERA. That’s fine in an SP2 spot behind Scherzer or Rogers for just $6.3K on DraftKings, as the Nationals don’t have an exceptionally high strikeout rate, but just an 85 wRC+ vs RHP. Of course, he has the same weather concerns Scherzer does. Stay tuned for a later forecast update.

Zack Greinke has been a master of contact management (86.8 mph) with a low walk rate (4.9%) and strikeout rate (18.4%) enabling him to consistently pitch deep into games. He’s competed seven innings in four of his last five starts. Even if we buy into the ability to control contact to this extent, his FIP (3.89) and xERA (3.77) are a bit above his 3.38 ERA with additional estimators above four. There’s likely some regression coming, but not enough to make him a below average pitcher yet. The potential for a Quality Start for $8K or less is what makes him slightly attractive on this small slate. While the Red Sox have a 104 wRC+ vs RHP, that does come with a 25.1 K% and the offense has just an 86 wRC+ over the last seven days.

Frankie Montas may be the most interesting mid-range pitcher. He is something like a league average pitcher by peripherals (16.6 K-BB%), but a bit worse when considering the contact profile (37.9 GB%, 90.7 mph EV, 11% Barrels/BBE). Only his 4.66 DRA is above his 4.52 ERA, which aligns most closely with a 4.42 xERA. The remaining pitchers with a higher strikeout rate than his 22.9% for less than $9K tonight are lefties who have terrible matchups against the Astros and Montas’s own team. Four of nine projected batters for the Royals exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020. Kansas City has a 92 wRC+ vs RHP this year. There may be no easy pitching choices if the weather doesn’t hold in Washington and even then, there would likely be ownership concerns. Montas is an uncomfortable choice, but he may be the right one on this particular slate.

Frankie Montas was in the midst of a breakout season in 2019 before a PED suspension ended it. He struck out five of 18 Angels in his return, but experienced a velocity drop in his second outing, whiffing just three of 21 Rockies. His 10.5 SwStr% is in line with last season. Additionally, Montas’s 49.4 GB% last season helped him to 4.2% Barrels/BBE. So far this year, he has just a 28 GB%. Never the less, Montas is probably your best bet on a middle of the board pitcher tonight. There are certainly some strikeouts in this lineup for Montas. The Mariners have a 103 wRC+ this season, but with a 26.2 K%. Montas costs $7.7K on Fanduel.