MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, September 28
Justin Carlucci walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Another Thursday night, another small main DFS slate. However, this could be a fun one, with a Coors game and other contests with playoff implications on the docket. Let’s dive in and check it out!
Chalk Stacks – Dodgers at Chris Flexen, Blue Jays vs. Luke Weaver
Let’s start with the Dodgers at Coors Field – an obvious blind guess to carry a ton of ownership on a 5-game slate.
Our top stacks tool projects the Dodgers to be the highest-owned stack (21.4% DraftKings, 25.13% FanDuel) with the second-highest chance to be optimal on both sites.
Historically, Flexen hasn’t been very good, but has not been blown up frequently. In fact, he’s only given up more than four earned runs once since the beginning of August.
That being said, this Dodgers team is other-worldly talented and they’ll be guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat against a bad staff. Flexen carries a .227 ISO and a .400 wOBA overall this season, but he’s also been a bit more historically reverse. That has remained true this year, as RHBs have a .433 ISO against the right-handed Flexen.
Of course, this entire lineup is super talented, but Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, and Will Smith never had any issues hitting right-handed hitters. Gun-to-head, Martinez is my favorite LAD hitter tonight. But of course, all of them are immensely talented.
Now, the Blue Jays.
According to our top stacks tool, Toronto has the best chance of being optimal at the second highest pOWN% on both sites. However, there is a bigger edge using them on FanDuel, as the projected gap in pOWN% between them and the (current) most popular Dodgers is almost 9%. That plays a part in the 3.76% positive difference between Toronto’s optimal and projected ownership percentages.
Luke Weaver hasn’t been a great pitcher in the bigs recently, but he was better last year. This year, he owns a .254 ISO and a .390 wOBA while striking out less than 19% of hitters.
The Blue Jays need every game, so this is another big one for them. Much like Los Angeles, this team is insanely talented, and on a 5-gamer, everyone is in play.
Alejandro Kirk is popping as a great value on both sites to include in your Toronto stacks. This season, Brandon Belt owns the highest ISO and second-highest barrel rate vs. right-handed pitchers in the projected Jays lineup. Those two guys make a ton of sense.
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