MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, September 5th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a small 5-gamer on our hands. There isn’t too much room to get crazy, but let’s dive in and find out how to attack it.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, September 5th
OPTO% STACK
Phillies vs. Adam Oller
The Phillies are currently the overwhelming Opto% stack, according to our tool on both sites. They’ll battle Adam Oller, who had a 5.82 xERA in 2022 and was no better in a brief 2023 MLB cup of coffee. Across a quick 16.1 innings so far at the MLB level this year, he’s been decent with an xERA of 3.77, but his xFIP is jacked up over 6.00.
Oller had serious control issues in 27 IP with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate, walking 18 in 27.1 IP, but pitched fairly well in 25 Triple-A innings in the Miami system. While his K rate has been up during his brief MLB cameo, his swinging-strike rate is still low, and he’s walking a ton of lefties. He’s also getting barreled like crazy.
That being said, Oller has given up just one ER across his last two starts against the Giants and Cubs – yes, the Giants who were no-hit by Zac Gallen through 6 innings last night. This will be a prove-it start for Oller against a talented Philly team. I haven’t seen him make any adjustments in terms of pitch mix. He’s still throwing his 4-seam fastball about 50% of the time, and good hitting teams won’t be fooled unless you have some serious rise on that thing.
Across 75 at-bats vs. lefties across the last 2 MLB seasons, Oller has allowed a .258 ISO, .361 wOBA, and a massive 18% barrel rate to lefties. Those numbers are incredibly horrendous. Combine those porous numbers and heavy 4-seam fastball usage with Kyle Schwarber temporarily being the hottest hitter on planet Earth, and he’s the top bat on the slate in terms of upside, with Bryce Harper not too far behind.
Sign me up for all of the lefties. Kody Clemens and Brandon Marsh are no more expensive than $3,400 on DraftKings, and both of them have ISOs in the mid-.200s vs. right-handed 4-seamers across the last two seasons. When Oller departs, the Phillies get to attack a bullpen with the 6th-worst ERA in the NL.
I’ve made some decent contrarian calls this week (Cubs yesterday), but our Top Stacks tool has also been on a mini-heater in terms of Opto% (Mariners yesterday). The LAD chalk wasn’t good last night, but I’m willing to eat it on Thursday – and I can shake hands in agreement with our tool regarding the Phillies.
HONORABLE MENTION STACK
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