MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, August 15
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
It’s a full slate, so there will be a heightened temptation to fade the Braves with a wealth of options. Today, we’ll discuss why the alternatives to Braves stacks are not reasons to pull back on the Braves but to hit the gas and plow forward, as 25 other teams on the slate could cap the Braves ownership. After that, we’ll discuss some options to pair with the Braves to give us a top projected lineup and options to maximize our leverage.
Braves Stack – Braves vs. Luis Severino
The Braves are high-owned against good pitchers. They project well against good pitchers. They perform well against good pitchers.
Luis Severino is not a good pitcher right now. He has slate-worsts 6.75 xERA and 2.54 HR/9 allowed. And where he isn’t the worst, he’s still pretty bad, having given up an 11.2% barrel rate on an 82.1% contact rate. This is a classic case of a guy giving up a high frequency of high-quality contact facing an elite offense.
Fading the Braves is in the cards. It’s completely possible. But I’m wondering how viable it is.
They have the highest implied total on the slate outside of Coors Field (6.32). Hell, they’re so great that they’re the headline of a Coors slate.
Their projected lineup has had a .360 wOBA, .210 ISO, and an 11.6% barrel rate on a 52.1% hard-hit rate vs. righties this season.
Their 229 HRs are a whole 43 more than the next team (Dodgers, 186). Their .503 SLG% is 40 points higher than the next team (Rangers, .463), and their .848 OPS is 43 points higher than the next team (Rangers, .805). As a collective, this team is performing like one giant All-Star.
There is a part of me that wants to play the game of DFS in a way that fades the Braves lying in wait for the other shoe to drop, so I’m not the one holding the bag when they regress. But I’m not gonna bank on four or five guys cooling down at the same time, which is what it would take for this phenomenon to temper itself.
The phenomenon is that there’s never a bad play in the order. That from top-to-bottom, there’s production from a ton of guys from night to night.
This is all to say that we keep playing the Braves. As chalky as they are every night, they might still be under-owned due to game theory.
Against Severino, the question isn’t whether or not I’m stacking the Braves, but how and with whom am I stacking them. Because I’m just stacking them.
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