Luis Severino Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Mets vs. Nationals will be delayed due to rain Wednesday.

Luis Severino, Sandy Alcantara and Shohei Ohtani are all $9K pitchers available only on FanDuel tonight. All but Ohtani are projected as top five overall pitchers (PlateIQ) there tonight. Ohtani’s most recent effort in Texas was not among his best, as he walked two of 20 batters and allowed a grand slam to the backup catcher. It’s the only home run he’s allowed in two starts though (two barrels), while striking out 14 of 39 (14 SwStr%) with just three walks. He dominated this Houston lineup in his first start (nine Ks). While Alcantara struck out just five of 27 Phillies in his second start and nine of 48 overall, he did drop his walk total from five to one the last time out. Curiously, Statcast reveals that the velocity is down on his four-seamer (nearly a mph), but not his sinker. The former has gone from a 23.3 Whiff% last year to just 14.3% so far. The Cardinals have a 108 wRC+ vs RHP this year so far. While Severino did not entirely hold his velocity gain from his first start when he increased his pitch count to 83 in his second, he did increase his swinging strike rate from 7.7% to 16.9%, as he worked in more cutters and changeups to the Blue Jays. He’s struck out 11 of 35 with just two walks and 52.4% of his contact on the ground against two good offenses. He has allowed three barrels (14.3%), but that’s not damning against Toronto and Boston. The results have been almost entirely encouraging. He carries the highest projected value of these three arms in Detroit (67 wRC+ vs RHP).

Interestingly, Daniel Lynch projects as the top value on either site. He allowed three home runs and more barrels (four) than ground balls (three) to the Cardinals in his first start, but he did strike out seven of 25 with just a single walk and 14.8 SwStr% in his first start. Lynch failed to live up to his prospect hype with a 7.7 K-BB% and 10.4% Barrels/BBE over 68 innings. It’s just one start, but maybe he’s at least on the path to fixing one of those things and likely a better option as a secondary option on DraftKings for just $5.5K. Chris Paddack is nearly as cheap on the other end of this matchup. He didn’t walk a batter or allow a home run, as only one batted ball was even barreled against him in his debut for the Twins. Paddack struck out just three of 20 Dodgers, but with a perfectly credible 11 SwStr%. However, his fastball velocity was down 2.8 mph according to Statcast, which is frightening if it’s not just a cold weather, single game blip. While his K-BB has decreased each season, it was still a very respectable 16.8% last year, though the contact profile has been an issue (9.1% Barrels/BBE since 2020).

Jose Berrios projects as a top three value on DK and top five on FD. Through two starts, he’s struck out as many as he’s walked (five). He’s allowed three home runs and a barrel on exactly one-quarter of his batted balls (94.5 mph EV). He’s thrown three pitches at least 30 times this season and none have a wOBA or xwOBA below .485. We know he’s a better pitcher than this and often a streaky one, but it’s a tough matchup at Fenway. Eduardo Rodriquez is a top three projected value on FanDuel, but he has struggled out of the gate as well in his new uniform with an ERA above five even though just half his 10 runs have been earned. His estimators actually match the results so far. He’s walked five of 38 and generated just a 28 GB% with a 95.2 mph EV. E-Rod has struck out just seven with an 8.4 SwStr%. Although, with a 73.7 F-Strike% and the highest Zone rate (43%) since his rookie year, the walks probably won’t continue to be a problem.

The ALCS moves on to Yankee Stadium tonight, the more hitter friendly run environment on the board tonight. While certainly much more power friendly, in a vacuum, it’s not really a much higher run scoring environment than Washington overall. However, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-60s and negligible winds, according to the RG Weather Page, Weather Edge is showing a sizable run and power boost with more than a 50 game sample, surprisingly.

Gerrit Cole was simply lights out against the Rays, striking out 25 of the 54 batters he saw, while allowing a single solo HR over 15.2 innings. It’s certainly a tougher lineup he’ll face tonight, but his 39.9 K%, 2.62 SIERA, 2.36 DRA, 77.1 Z-Contact% and .238 xwOBA are all easily best on the board today. This, of course, also easily makes him the most expensive pitcher on the board by around $2K on either site, but he’s one of two pitchers we should be confident might get some length tonight. He was the best pitcher in baseball this year and not someone the Astros will look to remove at the first sign of trouble. A 3.38 implied run line for the Yankees is second lowest on the board and likely the lowest we’ve seen for this team in a home game in quite some time. Didi Gregorius (85 wRC+, .186 ISO) is the only batter in the Yankee lineup below a 115 wRC+ vs RHP this year and DJ LeMahieu (119 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Giovanny Urshela (135 wRC+, .210 ISO) are the only other ones below a .250 ISO. This is not going to be an easy lineup to navigate and anyone’s playable on a two game slate, but batters from either side of the plate are below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA against Cole this year. Aaron Judge had a 50.9 Hard% vs RHP this year.

On the other side, Luis Severino’s results were fine through three starts this year (35.4 K%, 1.50 ERA), but he did this in just 12 innings with a 10.1 SwStr%, 3.80 SIERA and 4.05 DRA. He struck out four of the 17 Twins he faced in his lone post-season start. However, if the Yankees were willing to pull James Paxton at the first sign of trouble, that doesn’t speak confidently for Severino, who’s not made it through more than 19 batters in any of his outings this year. The good news is that he’s just $6.9K on DraftKings. The bad news is that the Astros had a 123 wRC+ vs RHP this year and a 4.12 implied run line that’s second highest on the board. The projected lineup has just a 17 K% vs RHP this year. While the Astros will be facing one of the best bullpens in baseball behind Severino, most of those guys pitched two nights ago and it’s hard to match up with an offense that hits pitchers from either side of the plate well nearly all the way through. Each of the first seven batters in the projected order, who are the same as the first two games of this series, were above a 120 wRC+ and .210 ISO vs RHP this year.

Special post-season pricing has every pitcher below $10K today and the sites have done a good job making these pitchers very close in value. The most positive run environment on the board sees Mike Clevinger (25.6 K%, 3.86 SIERA, .296 xwOBA) take on Dallas Keuchel (17.5 K%, 4.15 SIERA, .303 xwOBA). Clevinger will not have a long leash in an elimination game and is facing an offense with a 104 wRC+ and 19.2 K% vs RHP. Keuchel is the only pitcher on the board below a 22 K% and faces a tough offense as well (99 wRC+, 19.1 K% vs LHP). Despite the lack of upside, Keuchel does generate a lot of weak ground balls (53.7 GB%) and costs just $5.7K on DraftKings. He also may have the longest leash of today's group with his team up 2-0. Rich Hill (27.4 K%, 3.57 SIERA, .314 xwOBA) averaged just 5.1 IP this season (second lowest on the board) and has to contend with another tough offense (107 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs LHP) in Atlanta, probably the most pitcher friendly environment in play today. Mike Foltynewicz (27.2 K%, 3.77 SIERA, .288 xwOBA) was treated poorly by the Dodgers in the first game of this series. They are tied for the split high wRC+ (116) and strikeout rate (22.5%) against RHP today. In the most power friendly environment, Luis Severino (28.2 K%, 3.26 SIERA, .310 xwOBA) is the most talented pitcher on the board and the one with the most upside. He did have some control issues in the wild card game, but was nearly unhittable. Of course, the Red Sox are tied for the split high 116 wRC+ and split low 19 K% vs RHP. He's opposed by Nathan Eovaldi (22.2 K%, 3.71 SIERA, .299 xwOBA), who has to face a deep Yankee lineup (109 wRC+, 22.5 K%, 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP) as the largest underdog of the day. He averaged just over five innings per start, worst on the slate. The bottom line is this is a tightly priced group of pitchers, all facing difficult offenses.

Three pitchers exceed the $10K price point on both sites tonight and as luck would have it, all three are pitching for something. All three would seem nearly equally solid, but not spectacular values. Max Scherzer (34.6 K%, 2.72 SIERA, .261 xwOBA) has no post-season aspirations, but is still in Cy Young contention and has a great matchup against the Marlins (86 wRC+, 15.6 K-BB%, 11 HR/FB vs RHP). He's allowed at least three runs in five straight starts, but more than that only once, while his strikeout rate (34.6%), SIERA (2.63) and xwOBA (.273) are all on their season marks over that span. Scherzer is over $1K more expensive than any other pitcher on either site tonight. Luis Severino (28.1 K%, 3.24 SIERA, .309 xwOBA) is fighting for a home wild card game in Tampa Bay tonight (111 wRC+ at home, 106 wRC+ vs RHP, 133 wRC+ last seven days). Despite the 4.00 ERA over the last month, his strikeout rate, SIERA, and xwOBA are all improved over their season marks over that span. He's allowed just two runs over his last 11.2 innings. Walker Buehler (28.9 K%, 3.15 SIERA, .270 xwOBA) is pitching in the most important game for the Dogders in Arizona (81 wRC+, 24.2 K% vs RHP) because the Rockies are still just 1.5 games behind. His numbers over the last month are all major improvements on his strong season numbers too (34.5 K%, 2.74 SIERA, .244 xwOBA). He's allowed more than two runs in just one of his last 10 starts and has struck out at least nine in three of his last four. Trevor Bauer and Noah Syndergaard both reach $10K only on DraftKings. Neither is pitching for anything, more concerning in the case of Bauer, who is simply getting himself ready for the post-season after returning from injury. Both games have weather concerns as well.