MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, April 3rd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a doozy of a day in the MLB, with games and bad weather conditions spread all throughout the day.
We will focus on the 5-game and 4-game main slate for both sites. The DET/NYM game has been postponed for the second consecutive day, and two other games – PIT/WAS and COL/CHC – carry some form of weather risk. Stay tuned to Kevin Roth and the MLB Weather Page for the most recent updates.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, April 3rd
Chalk Stack – Pirates at Trevor Williams
First, there is some risk of postponement in Washington, so make sure to tune into CrunchTime to get Kevin Roth’s official take on this game before rolling out a bunch of Pirates bats in your lineups.
If we get the all-clear on the weather front, the Pirates figure to be the most popular offense on the slate thanks to their matchup with Trevor Williams.
Williams will be making his first start of the season after struggling to a 5.15 ERA in 2023. Underlying metrics were also unkind for the Nationals righty, with his 5.09 SIERA and 5.21 xFIP agreeing the poor results were deserved. Williams managed to strike out just 16.8% of batters while walking 8% of them. He allowed a whopping 2.12 HR/9, although he can probably expect a little regression on his 17% HR/FB rate.
The Statcast numbers were also ugly for Williams, as he allowed a career-high 10.2% barrel rate and 38.6% hard-hit rate. Throughout his career, Williams has allowed more power to lefties, but it was actually righties that roughed him up more in 2023. I think we can mostly ignore handedness when targeting the bats and just look for power.
Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski led the Pirates in the power department in 2023.
Oneil Cruz missed most of last season, but he posted a very healthy .248 ISO against righties in 2022.
Ke’Bryan Hayes and Andrew McCutchen are more hit than power, but I wouldn’t mind including either of them in a stack.
Rowdy Tellez is a value option at 1B on both sites who has historically flashed big power against righties.
Despite being the highest pOWN% stack at around 20%, the Pirates OPTO% still exceeds their lofty pOWN% on both sites.
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