MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday August 21st
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Wednesday’s slate is shaping up to be a ton of fun. There’s a decent chunk of poor pitching, some taxed bullpens, and one weather spot I want to take a hard look at. Let’s dive in.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, August 21st
CHALKY STACK
Royals vs. Johnny Cueto
This guy just won’t quit! Cueto made his MLB debut in 2008, and he’s back in the bigs and scheduled to pitch for the Angels tonight.
Cueto pitched in Triple-A for 2 clubs this season, sporting a 3.09 ERA across 23.1 IP for Salt Lake and a 5.92 ERA across 38 IP for Round Rock. What does the 38-year-old have left in the tank? It’s going to be quite interesting to see how this matchup shakes out.
Our Top Stacks number is still crunching some numbers, but my guess is that Kansas City ends up as the chalkiest stack. They’re currently the only team with an implied team total over 5 runs – and it’s well over that number at 5.41. The Royals rank 5th in ISO vs. RHP since July 1 and are 2nd in August.
Vinnie Pasquantino is one of my favorite bats, and he’s been on a tear since the All-Star Break. Vinnie P has a .248 ISO, .399 wOBA, and a 62% hard-hit rate vs. RHP across the last 30 days. Michael Massey and MJ Melendez are always in play vs. RHP, and they both have at least 35% fly-ball rates against RHP across the last 30 days. It goes without saying Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez are borderline integral in this stack as well.
The last time Cueto pitched in the bigs was with Miami last season. Across 52 innings, he had an xERA over 5.00 and allowed a career-high 10% barrel rate and 47% fly-ball rate. Of course, that’s a small sample size, but nothing is trending for the ageless wonder.
I really like Kansas City tonight, and if they end up as chalk, I think it’s warranted. I also think the high-end pitchers are the move compared to the cheaper options, and outside of Witt, Vinnie P, and Perez, these Royals are certainly affordable, so you can get one of them.
WEATHEREDGE STACKS
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