MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, August 28th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a slight difference in main slates – the TEX/CWS game is only available on DraftKings. Of course, that’s a big deal, because the Rangers are on the road, and the White Sox are bad. Toss in a Coors Field game, and we have some digging to do. Let’s get it!
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, August 28th
CHALKY DRAFTKINGS STACK
Rangers at (possibly) Touki Toussaint + CWS bullpen
The TEX/CWS game is only available on DraftKings, and our Top Stacks tool is currently predicting the Rangers as the chalkiest stack.
Yesterday’s game was suspended after a handful of pitches, and it looks like Garrett Crochet will start the first game of today’s doubleheader. Chicago hasn’t named a starting pitcher for Game 2 on our main slate yet, but my guess is we’ll see some combination of Touki Toussaint and the White Sox bullpen.
Toussaint, once a fairly highly-regarded Atlanta prospect, just hasn’t been that great at the MLB level throughout his career. He ended last season with a 5.35 xERA across 87 innings, and he almost has the exact same estimator in a small sample size this season. Again, it’s my best guess that he’s the most likely candidate to see some extended action, so he’s worth spending some time on.
Toussaint doesn’t give up a ton of power, but he has massive control problems, issuing 15% of free passes to hitters across the last 2 seasons while striking out less than 17% of lefties. Overall, the White Sox bullpen has the 2nd-worst ERA in baseball and has allowed the 2nd-most home runs.
Texas is the visiting team and is guaranteed a 9th-inning at-bat, so it’s understandable why they’re projected to be the chalk, and they’re also checking in with the 2nd-highest Opto% (at the time of publishing).
Corey Seager is arguably the top bat on the slate. The Rangers have 6 hitters listed at sub-$4,000, which can help pay up for a stud pitcher. They’re currently 1 of 3 teams with an implied run total north of 5. Texas has been pretty bad this season, but the matchup is great, and they’re guaranteed 9th-inning at-bats.
PIVOT STACK
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