MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, August 7th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a nice 7-game slate on tap that features Coors Field and a few ace pitchers on the bump. Let’s talk about the chalk and a few other stacks that could do damage at lower ownership.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, August 7th
CHALK STACK
Mets at Ryan Feltner
Feltner takes the bump for Colorado, who owns a respectable 4.36 xERA. Of course, it’s been tougher sledding for him at home (with an ERA over 6.00), but he profiles as a decent real-life pitcher. The Mets have a massive 6.02 projected run total, and it certainly helps that the Rockies have arguably the worst bullpen in baseball.
I have no doubt that the Mets are capable of hanging a big number, but considering they’re the chalk and there are so many other options, let’s play devil’s advocate.
– Five hitters are $4,800 or more on DraftKings. They’re an expensive stack, and it could be tough to fit in a stud pitcher – and there are some good ones on the docket. The price and pOWN% are the biggest issues.
– Only two hitters have ground-ball rates lower than 43% in the Mets’ projected lineup. I just thought that was interesting, but it might be irrelevant in Denver.
If you’re on the Mets but also want a high-end pitcher, I think a good solution is to pick one or two of the stud hitters at most and play them with the bottom/cheap part of the order.
Time after time, we see the bottom of an order put up a big number, so why not at Coors? This allows you to grab one of the elite arms. Remember right after the All-Star Break when Jeff McNeil was having multi-bomb games? He made some people a lot of money attached to the bottom of the order. This strategy seems more viable on FanDuel because there are four hitters projected to start at $3,300 or less.
That being said, the expensive bats such as Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are great cash game plays. It’s still early in the day, but unsurprisingly, our Top Stacks tool is tabbing the Mets as the chalk with the highest Opto% on both sites.
PIVOT STACK
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