MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, June 26th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a split schedule in MLB for Wednesday, and the DFS sites are handling Game 2 of the ATL/STL double-header differently. DraftKings is including the game in their 6-game main slate, while FanDuel has left that game out and is rolling with a 5-game main slate.
There is some noteworthy weather in New York and Boston, so make sure to stay tuned to the MLB Weather page for Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth’s latest updates.
It is a rather weak pitching slate, which leaves us plenty of options on the hitting side.
Let’s discuss.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, June 26th
CHALK STACK
Red Sox vs. Yariel Rodriguez
I want to emphasize that there is some risk of weather problems in this game. Roth’s early forecast leaves open the possibility for a postponement, particularly if there is a late start announced:
“Scattered showers and storms during the game. As of now, models keep those a hair south, but if one ends up over the ballpark, it’s big trouble because a “game-ending” type of rain starts right around when the game would normally end. Any late start or delays from the first batch could mean a game that doesn’t go 9. If we avoid the first round, we might be in decent shape.”
Be sure to tune into CrunchTime, where Roth will give his thoughts right up until lock.
The Red Sox have been one of the surprise teams in baseball this season. They are 8-2 over their last 10 games and have gone on a nice little run to put them firmly in the AL Wild Card picture.
They will face off against Blue Jays right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, who has made just 5 big league starts in his career. Rodriguez pitched professionally in Cuba and Japan before making his MLB debut this season. He has always flashed strikeout ability, but the walks have been an issue no matter which country/league he has pitched in. It is an extremely small sample, but Rodriguez has fared much better against lefties than righties in his 16.2 major league innings. This is noteworthy because Boston projects to roll out seven lefties in the lineup, but the sample is small enough that it does not take me off the stack.
The top five hitters in the Red Sox lineup have all been great against righties this season:
Jarren Duran – .250 ISO, 9.7% barrel rate
David Hamilton – .195 ISO, 6.2% barrel rate
Wilyer Abreu – .237 ISO, 13.5% barrel rate
Rafael Devers – .321 ISO, 14.5% barrel rate
Tyler O’Neill – .226 ISO, 14.8% barrel rate
Duran (20 SB) and Hamilton (21 SB) also offer tremendous speed upside in addition to their above-average power. Hamilton’s barrel rate and minor league track record suggest the early power numbers may not be sustainable, but the speed is real and he is a fine addition to a Red Sox stack.
The bottom of the order does not offer nearly as much upside, but there are some value salaries if you need the savings.
Masataka Yoshida owns a .152 ISO against righties and a minuscule 13.4% strikeout rate since the beginning of last season.
Ceddanne Rafaela offers all the tools and the prospect status to dream on, but the offense has lagged behind the defense in his first full season.
If there were no weather concerns I think we would see the Red Sox popularity skyrocket as we approach lock. They own the highest implied run total and we get priority over the need to spend up for pitching on this slate.
PIVOT STACKS
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
