MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Monday, April 29th

by Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05) Last Updated 2019-04-29 18:05:02 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

MLB DFS tournament play is unlike that of any other sport. Predicting outcomes with precision is difficult, and player variance is near its peak. There are special considerations when constructing lineups in order for you to find success in the long term. Each weekday, our DFS analysts will examine a specific tournament format and help you understand the application of strategy, via concepts such as pitcher pairings, roster construction, stacking, leverage, ownership, variance, and more.

Pitching Texture

Minnesota has been teeing off on poor Orioles pitching in six of their last nine games but will have to square up against Justin Verlander, who held them to one run over eight innings pitched his last time out. This sets up well for JV from a strikeout perspective as six hitters in the Twins projected lineup had strikeout rates north of 21% last season against right-handed pitching. Verlander has posted strikeout numbers himself this season with a massive 30.5% strikeout rate and 13.3 SwStr%. Verlander is currently projected to be just the third highest owned pitcher on DraftKings (24%) and second highest owned pitcher on FanDuel (12%). I want to be aggressively overweight on JV tournaments.

Zack Wheeler is currently projected to be Monday’s highest owned pitcher (25% FD, 40% DK) by a fairly wide margin. Wheeler has been the Mets best pitcher of late and has posted a strong 26% strikeout rate to start the year. There’s some concern surrounding Wheeler though, as he’s posted a high 11% walk rate and a swinging strike rate of 9.9% would suggest he’s running a bit pure with such strong strikeout numbers. I’m fine using Wheeler in cash games but he’s someone I want to short in tournaments at high expected ownership.