MLB First Look: Friday, July 11th
Editor’s Note: Welcome to MLB First Look! In an effort to provide Grinders with more “night-before” MLB Research Content, we’re proud to announce MLB First Look by Top-Ranked Notorious. Unlike season-long where writers have months to prep before writing articles on draft strategy, the quick nature of Daily Fantasy’s player draft-pool turn-around makes completing entire research routines and writing high quality articles the night before challenging, and at times impossible. This column should help you glean insight and strategies to exploit as Notorious begins his research routine with you. Since it’s a new column, let us know your feedback in the comments!
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more. Additionally, Derek will give you a quick recap of how his night in DFS transpired.
What I Learned Tonight
What’s up guys, Thursday night was a pretty small slate, but we saw huge offensive outbursts from both the Angels and the Tigers. I was extremely high on the Angels tonight, but couldn’t fit too many into my cash games as I had no choice but to roll out Clayton Kershaw.
I’m excited about Friday night. DraftStreet has their $1000 qualifer which is giving away 5 seats to their baseball championship. I’ll certainly have a few bullets in there so let’s hope I can finally grab a seat to one of these big tournies. I’ve been a bridesmaid on more than one occasion this season. But tomorrow I’ll be perfectly fine with being the brides maid as the top 5 will punch their ticket to the final.
Today’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:05 PM | Atlanta | Chi. Cubs | Wood (6-7) – 3.14 ERA | Villanueva (4-6) – 6.47 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Chi. White Sox | Cleveland | Noesi (3-6) – 4.90 ERA | Kluber (8-6) – 2.86 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Baltimore | Kuroda (6-6) – 4.20 ERA | Gonzalez (4-5) – 4.22 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Washington | Philadelphia | Zimmermann (6-4) – 2.79 ERA | Burnett (5-8) – 3.92 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | Locke (2-1) – 3.08 ERA | Latos (2-1) – 2.41 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Toronto | Tampa Bay | Buehrle (10-6) – 2.60 ERA | Archer (5-5) – 3.16 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Miami | N.Y. Mets | Alvarez (6-3) – 2.27 ERA | Wheeler (4-8) – 4.07 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | L.A. Angels | Texas | Richards (10-2) – 2.71 ERA | Tepesch (3-4) – 4.29 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Boston | Houston | Lackey (9-6) – 3.84 ERA | Feldman (4-5) – 3.86 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | St. Louis | Milwaukee | Kelly (1-1) – 0.59 ERA | Gallardo (5-5) – 3.45 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Detroit | Kansas City | Sanchez (5-3) – 3.18 ERA | Duffy (5-8) – 2.86 ERA |
| 8:40 PM | Minnesota | Colorado | Nolasco (5-7) – 5.90 ERA | De La Rosa (9-6) – 4.75 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Oakland | Seattle | Samardzija (3-7) – 2.74 ERA | Hernandez (10-2) – 2.11 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | San Diego | L.A. Dodgers | Hahn (4-2) – 2.34 ERA | Haren (8-5) – 4.06 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | Arizona | San Francisco | Bolsinger (1-5) – 5.13 ERA | Lincecum (8-5) – 3.91 ERA |
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Friday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
At first glance, here are the pitchers that you should target in tomorrow night’s games:
- Corey Kluber vs. CWS – Kluber has been terrific at home this season. He owns a 2.75 ERA with 75 K’s over 65 innings of work. While he’ll have to deal with Jose Abreu, if he can manage to pitch around him, he should be in for a big outing against the White Sox.
- Zack Wheeler vs. MIA – The last time Wheeler faced the Marlins he threw a complete game shutout with 8 strikeouts. He faces them again Friday, but this time it will be in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. He makes a great upside play for the price.
- Dan Haren vs. SD – It’s hard to argue taking any pitcher against the Padres at this point in the season. Haren has struggled over the last few weeks, but all that’s done is lower the price tag. Haren is a terrific cash game play across all sites.
2) Two Easy Teams to Target
- Colorado Rockies – vs. Kris Johnson – We have another series in Coors Field which means the Rockies’ stacks will be out in full force. The total for this game is set at 10.5 runs and the Rockies are big favorites. Get as many Rockies into your lineups as possible.
- Cleveland Indians – vs. Hector Noesi – The Indians were a letdown tonight against David Phelps, but should bounce back nicely as they face Hector Noesi who has been extremely vulnerable to LH hitters over his career (.401 wOBA on 2013). Kipnis, Cabrera, Brantley, Santana, and Chisenhall are all great targets.
3) wOBA Play of the Day
- Kole Calhoun – Calhoun paid off handsomely in this spot Thursday night and he’ll get back to back wOBA Play of the Day honors as he draws a terrific matchup against Nick Tepesch who has given up a .326 wOBA to LH hitters. Calhoun meanwhile, is sporting a .399 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Look for Calhoun’s hot streak to stay alive on Friday.
4) BvP Play of the Day
- Paul Goldschmidt – I’m not a huge believer in BvP stats, but every once in a while you run into a stat that you just can’t ignore. Plus Goldy could easily have had the honors as wOBA Play of the Day or as the HR prediction. Goldy is an insane 15/26 with 7 HR’s, 2 doubles, and 3 walks against Tim Lincecum. It’s safe to say he has Lincecum’s number.
5) Daily HR Prediction
Last night’s HR prediction of Albert Pujols fell short, but he did have a big fantasy outing so I suppose we will give him a pass. For Friday’s slate, I’m going back to the well and targeting Mr. Double Dong himself: Mark Teixeira. He’s now hit 16 of his 17 HR’s against RH pitching this season and he’s facing Miguel Gonzalez who has already given up 14 HR’s this season (6 of which were to LH hitters). Look for Big Teix to go deep again tonight.