MLB First Look: Thursday, August 7th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
What’s up Grinders, welcome to another edition of the MLB First Look. We have a surprisingly large slate of games on tap on Thursday. There are 4 day games and 9 evening games so with a split schedule, you have the choice of playing either morning leagues, night leagues, or both.
Tuesday was an interesting day of DFS for yours truly. There’s nothing better than when you are “bubbling” in double-ups and you have a batter come up in the 9th inning. That was the case in the early slate. I was just out of the cash in double-ups, but I had Josh Reddick up to bat in the bottom of the ninth. He ended up hitting a 2-RBI double that was about an inch away from being caught by Desmond Jennings. It’s just one example of why we all love this wonderful game of daily fantasy sports.
Thursday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:35 PM | N.Y. Mets | Washington | deGrom (6-5) – 2.77 ERA | Zimmermann (7-5) – 3.00 ERA |
| 1:05 PM | Detroit | N.Y. Yankees | Porcello (13-5) – 3.18 ERA | Greene (2-1) – 3.68 ERA |
| 2:10 PM | San Francisco | Milwaukee | Peavy (1-11) – 4.73 ERA | Peralta (13-6) – 3.52 ERA |
| 3:10 PM | Chi. Cubs | Colorado | Hendricks (2-1) – 2.05 ERA | Flande (0-3) – 5.72 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Miami | Pittsburgh | Flynn (0-0) – 6.00 ERA | Volquez (8-7) – 3.91 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Houston | Philadelphia | McHugh (4-9) – 3.32 ERA | Hernandez (6-8) – 3.87 ERA |
| 7:07 PM | Baltimore | Toronto | Gonzalez (5-6) – 3.93 ERA | Happ (8-5) – 4.25 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Cleveland | Cincinnati | House (1-2) – 4.09 ERA | Bailey (8-5) – 3.89 ERA |
| 7:15 PM | Boston | St. Louis | Workman (1-4) – 4.08 ERA | Wainwright (13-6) – 2.26 ERA |
| 9:40 PM | Kansas City | Arizona | Guthrie (7-9) – 4.50 ERA | Nuno (2-7) – 4.78 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Minnesota | Oakland | Pino (1-3) – 4.57 ERA | Lester (11-7) – 2.59 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | L.A. Dodgers | L.A. Angels | Ryu (12-5) – 3.39 ERA | Wilson (8-7) – 4.74 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Chi. White Sox | Seattle | Carroll (4-6) – 4.36 ERA | Elias (8-9) – 4.19 ERA |
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Thursday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Jordan Zimmermann (vs. New York Mets): If you are playing the early slate, Zimmermann is the clear cut #1 pitcher. He’s been terrific at home with a 2.62 ERA and he draws a very favorable matchup against the Mets who are ranked 25th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season.
Jon Lester (vs. Minnesota Twins): The Twins are a fairly patient team at the plate, but Lester is one of the better southpaws in the American League and he gets to face them in the pitcher friendly confines of the A’s Coliseum. Lester is the biggest favorite on the board and should be in line for the win.
Roenis Elias (vs. Chicago White Sox): If you are looking for a mid-range pitcher with nice upside, Elias provides that in a matchup at home against the White Sox. Elias is averaging over 8 K’s per 9 innings and is actually a pretty sizable favorite.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Colorado Rockies (vs. Kyle Hendricks): Fresh off of a 13 run performance last night, the Rockies get to face Hendricks at home in Coors. The total for this game is set at 10.5 runs and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another double-digit run outing from the Rockies.
Seattle Mariners (vs. Scott Carroll): Carroll has been a pitcher that I’ve picked on all season long. He has terrific blow up potential which is great news for the Mariners offense. With Austin Jackson and Kendrys Morales providing some much needed RH exposure, the Mariners offense finally looks formidable. They are in a great spot against Carroll.
3) wOBA vs. BvP Play of the Day
Round 8 (Wednesday, August 6th): It has been a heated battle between BvP and wOBA. Last night Jose Bautista came up big for team wOBA to tie the series up at 4 a piece. He beat out Miguel Cabrera who had hit 4 career HR’s off of Capuano.
Scoreboard: BvP 4 – wOBA 4
Jacoby Ellsbury (vs. Rick Porcello): It’s slim pickens when it comes to BvP plays on Thursday. That said, even though the sample size is small, Ellsbury has hit Porcello well in the past. He’s gone 7/10 with 2 HR’s and a double off of him.
Adam Jones (vs. J.A. Happ): I think this is a great matchup because it’s a battle between two similarly priced OF’s. Jones has been terrific against LH pitching this season with a .469 wOBA. He’s facing J.A. Happ who has given up a wOBA to RH hitters.
4) Red Hot Batter
Aramis Ramirez (vs. Jake Peavy): It’s largely gone unnoticed, but Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat. Over the last 14 days, he has a .526 batting average with a .580 wOBA. He has 5 multi-hit games in his last 6 outings and gets a favorable matchup at home against Peavy.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Nelson Cruz (vs. J.A. Happ): Much like his teammate Adam Jones, Cruz has been terrific against LH pitching this season. He owns a .419 wOBA against southpaws and even though only 5 of his 29 HR’s have come off of LH pitching, Cruz has historically had better power vs. lefties. I love the matchup against Happ in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.