MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-13 03:12:44

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any fantasy point average listed uses FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

Toronto at Baltimore

Pitcher Grind Down

Mark Buehrle (FD: $7100, DK: $6300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.39 / xFIP: 4.09 / SIERA: 4.32
K/9: 5.3 / K%: 0.139 / BB%: 0.054
BAL vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 6 / K% Rank: 19

Analysis: Buerhle is coming off of an above-average season by his standards. He finished the season with a 3.39 ERA, which is pretty impressive considering half of his starts were in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Buehrle is not a high-strikeout pitcher at this stage in his career though, averaging only 5.3 strikeouts per 9 innings in 2014. While the Orioles do strike out at a high clip, they are terrific against left-handed pitching and were one of the best hitting teams at home last season. Buehrle can be avoided in his start in Camden Yards. Rating = 5

Bud Norris (FD: $7500, DK: $7400)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.65 / xFIP: 3.98 / SIERA: 3.86
K/9: 7.57 / K%: 0.202 / BB%: 0.076
TOR vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 2 / K% Rank: 7

Analysis: Norris had a very solid season for the Orioles in 2014. He finished with a 3.98 xFIP and a K/9 of 7.6. He does walk quite a few batters (7% walk rate), but we can live with that, as he does have a high strikeout rate (20%). He offers more upside than his opponent, Mark Buehrle, but he does draw a difficult matchup against a powerful Blue Jays’ lineup. Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson can all ruin a pitcher’s outing with a single swing of their bats. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Reyes (FD: $3700, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.287 / wOBA: 0.321 / ISO: 0.111
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 / ISO: 0.115

Analysis: Reyes is a high on-base percentage player that offers stolen base potential as well. He finished 2014 with a .324 wOBA against right-handed pitching and as we all know, it’s easier to steal bases with right-handed pitchers on the mound. He draws a favorable matchup against Bud Norris, who gave up a .330 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion (FD: $4600, DK: $5000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.392 / ISO: 0.291

Baltimore

Adam Jones (FD: $4100, DK: $4900)

BA: 0.281 / wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.188
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.434 / ISO: 0.26

Analysis: Jones is one of the best hitters in baseball when it comes to left-handed pitching. He finished last season with a .434 wOBA and a .260 ISO against left-handed pitching. His price is very playable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He offers great upside against Mark Buehrle, who doesn’t strike many batters out.

Secondary Plays:

Steve Pearce (FD: $4100, DK: $4300) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.472 / ISO: 0.378

Manny Machado (FD: $2900, DK: $4500) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.281 / ISO: 0.125

Houston at Texas

Pitcher Grind Down

Collin McHugh (FD: $8100, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.73 / xFIP: 3.11 / SIERA: 3.14
K/9: 9.14 / K%: 0.254 / BB%: 0.066
TEX vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 26 / K% Rank: 11

Analysis: McHugh had an impressive 2014 campaign, posting a 3.11 ERA with a K/9 of 9.1. He held left and right-handed batters under a .220 batting average and under a .275 wOBA. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Rangers, who have a much better offense than they did in 2014. McHugh still offers high strikeout potential, but he does face a very capable Rangers’ lineup in a hitter’s ballpark. Rating = 6

Derek Holland (FD: $8000, DK: $6900)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 1.46 / xFIP: 3.72 / SIERA: 3.8
K/9: 6.08 / K%: 0.172 / BB%: 0.035
HOU vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 5 / K% Rank: 27

Analysis: Even though Holland will be making his first start in the Rangers’ fifth game of the season, he is the ace of this pitching staff. He’s a very good left-handed pitcher with decent strikeout potential. His 2014 season was hampered by injuries, but he still finished with a 3.72 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.1. I expect him to improve on both of those numbers this season, assuming he can stay healthy. He draws a fantastic matchup against the Astros, who have given up double-digit strikeout to each of the last two pitchers that they have faced (Carrasco and Bauer). Rating = 7.5

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Jose Altuve (FD: $4100, DK: $4800)

BA: 0.341 / wOBA: 0.363 / ISO: 0.112
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.440 / ISO: 0.151

Analysis: When it comes to elite fantasy options against left-handed pitching, Altuve may be the last player that you would name off the top of your head. That said, he finished 2014 with a .440 wOBA against southpaws. Altuve is a high on-base percentage player that gives the added bonus of a potential stolen base.

Secondary Plays:

George Springer (FD: $4000, DK: $5100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.194

Texas

Adrian Beltre (FD: $3800, DK: $5200)

BA: 0.324 / wOBA: 0.38 / ISO: 0.168
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.16

Analysis: Beltre was terrific at Globe Life Park last season, posting a .421 wOBA at home. He was also very good against right-handed pitching, posting a .366 wOBA. He homered in yesterday’s game against the A’s. While I don’t love the matchup against Collin McHugh, I love his price point on FanDuel ($3,800).

Secondary Plays:

Shin-Soo Choo (FD: $2900, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.329 / ISO: 0.14

Chicago Cubs at Colorado

Pitcher Grind Down

Travis Wood (FD: $6100, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.03 / xFIP: 4.51 / SIERA: 4.41
K/9: 7.57 / K%: 0.187 / BB%: 0.097
COL vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 1 / K% Rank: 12

Analysis: Wodd is coming off of a very disappointing 2014 season, posting a 4.51 ERA with a K/9 of 7.6. He struggled with his command at time, walking nearly 10% of the batters that he faced. He has the unfortunate task of facing a very talented Rockies’ lineup in Coors Field. He’s an underdog in a game that features a total of 10.0 runs. If you make 100 morning lineups, Wood should be in zero of them. Rating = 1

Tyler Matzek (FD: $5800, DK: $4900)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.05 / xFIP: 3.92 / SIERA: 4.08
K/9: 6.96 / K%: 0.181 / BB%: 0.088
CHC vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 7 / K% Rank: 30

Analysis: Matzek had a decent season for the Rockies, but he’s not a pitcher that we can trust in daily games, especially when he is pitching at home. Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball and it’s not even close. Avoid Matzek in a game that will likely be a shootout. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Jorge Soler (FD: $3700, DK: $5300)

BA: 0.292 / wOBA: 0.386 / ISO: 0.281
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 / ISO: 0.143

Analysis: Soler is only 1/7 so far this season, but a matchup against a southpaw in Coors Field should be just what he needs to get going. Soler didn’t have great numbers against left-handed pitching last season, but the sample size was small. Soler is a terrific fantasy option, especially on FanDuel at a price of $3,700.

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4700, DK: $5700) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.411 / ISO: 0.207

Starlin Castro (FD: $4100, DK: $4800) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.122

Dexter Fowler (FD: $3100, DK: $5400) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.392 / ISO: 0.14

Colorado

Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $5100, DK: $7000)

BA: 0.340 / wOBA: 0.444 / ISO: 0.263
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.556 / ISO: 0.436

Analysis: Tulowitzki is $7,000 on DraftKings today and to be honest, I couldn’t be happier about it. A price that high really makes you work to fit him into your lineups. You may want to do just that though, as Tulowitzki had an insane .556 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. He also had a ridiculous ISO of .436. Throw in the Coors Field factor and Tulowitzki is the top position player on the board on Friday.

Secondary Plays:

Nolan Arenado (FD: $4300, DK: $5700) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.414 / ISO: 0.286

Nick Hundley (FD: $2900, DK: $3600) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.259 / ISO: 0.030

DJ LeMahieu (FD: $3100, DK: $4200) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.299 / ISO: 0.05

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox

Pitcher Grind Down

Tommy Milone (FD: $6000, DK: $5800)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.19 / xFIP: 4.56 / SIERA: 4.57
K/9: 5.72 / K%: 0.145 / BB%: 0.071
CWS vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 12 / K% Rank: 23

Analysis: Milone is not a great play against the White Sox. He’s coming off of a mediocre 2014 season, posting a 4.56 ERA with a K/9 of 5.7. He only struck out 14.5% of the batters that he faced, while walk 7.1%. He has one of the worst defensive outfields in baseball behind him and he draws a tough matchup against Jose Abreu and the White Sox. Milone is a small underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. Rating = 3

Hector Noesi (FD: $6400, DK: $5500)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.75 / xFIP: 4.29 / SIERA: 4.34
K/9: 6.42 / K%: 0.168 / BB%: 0.076
MIN vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 8 / K% Rank: 23

Analysis: Noesi pitched a little better than his ERA would suggest last season, but he’s still a below average starter. He finished 2014 with a 4.29 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.4. The Twins offense is actually much better than given credit for, especially against right-handed pitching. This game has the second highest run total in the early slate and both starting pitchers can safely be avoided in all contests. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Kennys Vargas (FD: $2500, DK: $3900)

BA: 0.274 / wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.181
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 / ISO: 0.252

Analysis: Vargas was terrific against right-handed pitching last season, posting a .387 wOBA. He is a switch-hitter that derives most of his power from the left side of the plate. In fact, his ISO against right-handed pitching was nearly .100 higher than his ISO against left-handed pitching. He should have some opportunities to drive in runs against Hector Noesi.

Secondary Plays:

Joe Mauer (FD: $3200, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.127

Torii Hunter (FD: $2800, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.33 / ISO: 0.164

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu (FD: $4500, DK: $5500)

BA: 0.317 / wOBA: 0.411 / ISO: 0.264
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.462 / ISO: 0.309

Analysis: Jose Abreu sees left-handed pitching well. Jose Abreu hits left-handed pitching well. Jose Abreu should be in your lineups on Friday. He had a .462 wOBA and a .309 ISO against right-handed pitching last season and he is facing Tommy Milone, who gave up a .339 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

Avisail Garcia (FD: $3500, DK: $4300) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.421 / ISO: 0.267

Melky Cabrera (FD: $2900, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.358 / ISO: 0.151

Alexei Ramirez (FD: $3000, DK: $4400) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.328 / ISO: 0.162

Detroit at Cleveland

Pitcher Grind Down

Alfredo Simon (FD: $6800, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.44 / xFIP: 4.05 / SIERA: 4.17
K/9: 5.82 / K%: 0.155 / BB%: 0.069
CLE vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 7 / K% Rank: 10

Analysis: Simon had a very strong first half of the season in 2014, but he came crashing back down to Earth after playing in the All-Star game. He finished the season with mediocre numbers, posting a 4.05 xFIP and a K/9 of 5.8. He doesn’t offer much in terms of strikeout potential and he is facing an Indians’ lineup that is very good against right-handed pitching. He joins Tyler Matzek, Travis Wood, Hector Noesi, and Tommy Milone on the “do not touch” list in the early slate of games. Rating = 4

Zach McAllister (FD: $5700, DK: $4200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.23 / xFIP: 3.84 / SIERA: 3.86
K/9: 7.74 / K%: 0.196 / BB%: 0.074
DET vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 5 / K% Rank: 5

Analysis: McAllister may have had a 5.23 ERA last season, but his xFIP and SIERA suggest that he should have had a much better season. Whether is was bad luck or a bad defense behind him, his xFIP was nearly a run and a half lower than his ERA. He posted a respectable strikeout rate of 19.6%, striking out 7.7 batters per 9 innings. Now that I’ve talked him up, I will quickly talk him back down. The Tigers have one of the best offenses in all of baseball and I don’t make a habit of targeting pitchers against them. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Victor Martinez (FD: $4100, DK: $4800)

BA: 0.335 / wOBA: 0.411 / ISO: 0.23
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.39 / ISO: 0.199

Analysis: Martinez has slightly betters splits against left-handed pitching, but he still boasts a .390 wOBA against right-handed pitching. In addition to his power from both sides of the plate, Martinez also hits for average, as his .335 batting average was one of the highest in the American League last season. He’s in play once again, as he squares off against Zach McAllister.

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4800, DK: $5600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.385 / ISO: 0.203

J.D. Martinez (FD: $3900, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.379 / ISO: 0.205

Ian Kinsler (FD: $4200, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.317 / ISO: 0.144

Cleveland

Jason Kipnis (FD: $3600, DK: $4800)

BA: 0.240 / wOBA: 0.289 / ISO: 0.090
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 / ISO: 0.117

Analysis: Kipnis is looking to extend his multi-hit streak to three games, as the Indians take on the Tigers. He has a good chance to do just that against Alfredo Simon, who is an average right-handed pitcher. Kipnis hits right-handed pitching well and he has a little speed on the bases as well.

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Santana (FD: $3500, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.195

Yan Gomes (FD: $3200, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.323 / ISO: 0.197

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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