MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 10th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-10 15:58:00

Boston at NY Yankees

Pitcher Grind Down

Wade Miley (FD: $7200, DK: $6300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.34 / xFIP: 3.5 / SIERA: 3.67
K/9: 8.18 / K%: 0.211 / BB%: 0.087
NYY vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 12 / K% Rank: 9

Analysis: Miley goes from pitching in the National League to pitching in the tough American League East. That’s definitely not an easy transition for most pitchers. He actually pitched well in 2014, finishing with a 3.50 xFIP and a K/9 of 8.2. His price is cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and left-handed pitchers tend to have a little more success in Yankee Stadium, as they don’t have to deal with the short porch in right field as often. Miley is a sneaky play tonight against the aging Yankees. Rating = 6

Nathan Eovaldi (FD: $7500, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.37 / xFIP: 3.78 / SIERA: 3.91
K/9: 6.4 / K%: 0.166 / BB%: 0.05
BOS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 24

Analysis: Eovaldi has great velocity in his fastball, the problem is that he doesn’t have a ton of movement. He finished 2014 with an xFIP 3.78 and a K/9 of 6.4 With his velocity, we’d like to see a few more strikeouts. He draws a tough matchup against a revamped Red Sox offense. Eovaldi is the small underdog in this game and if I had to choose between the two pitchers on the mound, I’d give a small edge to Wade Miley. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz (FD: $3700, DK: $4900)

BA: 0.263 / wOBA: 0.369 / ISO: 0.255
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 / ISO: 0.248

Analysis: Ortiz will go back to being the designated hitter tonight, after having to play first base in their interleague series against the Phillies. Ortiz will be much more comfortable at DH and he draws a favorable matchup against Nathan Eovaldi, who gave up a .336 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. I’m calling my shots, Ortiz gets his first home run of the season tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez (FD: $4100, DK: $5200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.156

Pablo Sandoval (FD: $3000, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.359 / ISO: 0.144

NY Yankees

Mark Teixeira (FD: $3300, DK: $4400)

BA: 0.216 / wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.182
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 / ISO: 0.138

Analysis: The two Yankees’ bats that I usually like to target in daily fantasy are both left-handed (Ellsbury and Gardner). Ellsbury hits left-handed pitching well, but he’s too expensive to target in a lefty/lefty matchup. Teixeira gets the nod instead. Miley gave up a .331 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

Chase Headley (FD: $2900, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.129

Carlos Beltran (FD: $2900, DK: $4500) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.245 / ISO: 0.126

Washington at Philadelphia

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez (FD: $9400, DK: $9100)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.57 / xFIP: 3.39 / SIERA: 3.43
K/9: 9.19 / K%: 0.248 / BB%: 0.086
PHI vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 25 / K% Rank: 26

Analysis: Gonzalez is a hard-throwing left-handed pitcher with great strikeout potential. He finished 2014 with a 3.39 xFIP and a K/9 of 9.2. He had a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, which is good. Tonight, the Nationals head to Philadelphia to take on a Phillies’ offense that ranked below average in most offensive categories last season. They were ranked 25th in wOBA and 26th in strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching. Rating = 8

Jerome Williams (FD: $6300, DK: $4900)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.77 / xFIP: 4.09 / SIERA: 4.03
K/9: 6.42 / K%: 0.165 / BB%: 0.072
WAS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 21

Analysis: Williams is a pitcher that doesn’t get a lot of attention in the daily fantasy baseball world. He has an average strikeout rate and an average xFIP. He’s playing on a Phillies’ team that is going to struggle to score runs this season. There is little upside tonight with Williams, even in a favorable matchup against the Nationals. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Bryce Harper (FD: $4300, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.273 / wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.151
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.144

Analysis:

Harper is off to a quick start this season, going 4/11 at the plate with a home run in the opener. He has always had good power against right-handed pitching and he draws a favorable matchup against Jerome Williams, who gave up a .348 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. He also sees a ballpark boost, as Citizens Bank Park is a great ballpark for left-handed hitters.

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Zimmerman (FD: $3700, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.179

Michael Taylor (FD: $2400, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.335 / ISO: 0.067

Philadelphia

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Ruiz (FD: $2500, DK: $3200) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.372 / ISO: 0.182

Tampa Bay at Miami

Pitcher Grind Down

Steve Geltz (FD: $5000, DK: $4200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.24 / xFIP: 3.92 / SIERA: 2.65
K/9: 15.12 / K%: 0.378 / BB%: 0.135
MIA vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 15 / K% Rank: 28

Analysis: Geltz will be making his first career major league start. He has made 13 relief appearances over the last three seasons, posting a 3.48 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 10 innings of work. He is not a top prospect by any means. Even if he pitches well tonight, he’s not going to pitch deep into this game. He can safely be avoided tonight against the Marlins. Rating = 4

Dan Haren (FD: $7300, DK: $6400)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.02 / xFIP: 3.7 / SIERA: 3.74
K/9: 7.02 / K%: 0.187 / BB%: 0.046
TB vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 2

Analysis: Haren’s biggest struggle over the last three seasons has been giving up home runs. He has given up at least 1.30 home runs per nine innings in each of the last three years. A move to Miami may help, as Marlins Park is one of the toughest parks to hit home runs in. Haren still managed to post a 3.7 xFIP with a K/9 of 7.0 in 2014. He’s a small favorite tonight against the Rays. At his price point, he makes a terrific SP2. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Evan Longoria (FD: $4000, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.304 / ISO: 0.143

Kevin Kiermaier (FD: $2800, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.218

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4700, DK: $5800)

BA: 0.288 / wOBA: 0.403 / ISO: 0.267
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.262

Analysis:

Stanton is known for his power against left-handed pitching, but a .391 wOBA and a .262 ISO against right-handed pitching is nothing to scoff at. Even in the tough Marlins Park, Stanton was terrific at home last season. He is an elite outfield option against Steve Geltz, who will be making his first career start.

Secondary Plays:

Dee Gordon (FD: $3500, DK: $5200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.310 / ISO: 0.090

Christian Yelich (FD: $3400, DK: $5100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.116

St. Louis at Cincinnati

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey (FD: $7800, DK: $7800)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.82 / xFIP: 3.48 / SIERA: 3.64
K/9: 7.45 / K%: 0.197 / BB%: 0.056
CIN vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 28 / K% Rank: 18

Analysis: Lackey is coming off of a strong 2014 campaign. He may be able to improve on his 3.48 xFIP this season, as he will have most of his starts under National League rules. He is a small favorite tonight against the Reds, who know how to manufacture runs. Billy Hamilton gets on base and turns walks/singles into doubles and triples with his ability to steal bases. Then you have Todd Frazier, Joey Votto, and Devin Mesoraco all with great power behind him. The strikeout potential is there for Lackey, but this isn’t my favorite matchup. Rating = 6

Jason Marquis (FD: $5200, DK: $4600)

Pitching Stats (2013):

ERA: 4.05 / xFIP: 4.81
K/9: 5.51 / K%: .0139 / BB%: .0131
STL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 20 / K% Rank: 4

Analysis: Marquis pitched in the minors last season, after having a fairly disappointing 2013 campaign. He doesn’t offer much in terms of strikeout potential, which really limits his fantasy appeal. With all of the pitching options in the late slate, Marquis is an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter (FD: $3800, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.272 / wOBA: 0.339 / ISO: 0.103
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.104

Analysis: Carpenter hit right-handed pitching to the tune of a .343 wOBA last season. He draws a very favorable matchup against Jason Marquis, who gave up a .378 wOBA to left-handed hitters in 2013. Carpenter could be in for a multi-hit, multi-run type of game tonight. He’s a very safe cash game option at third base.

Secondary Plays:

Jason Heyward (FD: $3600, DK: $4900) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.225 / ISO: 0.056

Matt Adams (FD: $3400, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.367 / ISO: 0.187

Cincinnati

Billy Hamilton (FD: $4000, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.250 / wOBA: 0.287 / ISO: 0.105
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 / ISO: 0.104

Analysis: When Hamilton gets on base, he has the green light to go for second. He stole two bases yesterday against the Pirates. he may not have the best wOBA against right or left-handed pitching, but his ability to steal bases and score runs puts him in that elite play category tonight against John Lackey.

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto (FD: $3700, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.093

NY Mets at Atlanta

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Niese (FD: $7800, DK: $7500)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.4 / xFIP: 3.63 / SIERA: 3.78
K/9: 6.62 / K%: 0.176 / BB%: 0.057
ATL vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 11 / K% Rank: 28

Analysis: Niese should be able to pick up where he left off last season, when he posted a 3.63 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.6. He’s a quality left-handed pitcher that draws a favorable matchup against a Braves’ offense that really lacks power this season. The Braves do have some talented left-handed hitters in their lineup, but Niese held batters from the left side of the plate to a .289 wOBA last season. Niese can serve as a viable SP2 tonight against the Braves. Rating = 6

Eric Stults (FD: $6000, DK: $5800)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.3 / xFIP: 4.17 / SIERA: 4.33
K/9: 5.68 / K%: 0.146 / BB%: 0.059
SF vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 16 / K% Rank: 17

Analysis: Stults had an up and down season in 2014. He finished with a 4.17 xFIP and a low K/9 of 5.7. He doesn’t offer a whole lot in terms of strikeout potential and he’s facing a Mets’ offense that is actually underrated. The Mets struggle to score runs at home, but most teams do in Citi Field. Stults can safely be avoided tonight, as he gave up a .340+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters last season.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

David Wright (FD: $3300, DK: $5100)

BA: 0.269 / wOBA: 0.308 / ISO: 0.105
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 / ISO: 0.142

Analysis:

Secondary Plays:Wright has always crushed left-handed pitching and last season was no exception. He hit for a .398 wOBA and a .142 ISO. The most impressive part is that half of those stats were racked up in Citi Field, which is extremely tough on right-handed hitters. Wright is a little expensive on DraftKings, but he’s arguably the top third baseman on the board tonight on FanDuel ($3,300).

Michael Cuddyer (FD: $2900, DK: $4900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.194

Atlanta

Eric Young (FD: $2600, DK: $3200)

BA: 0.229 / wOBA: 0.275 / ISO: 0.082
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 / ISO: 0.08

Analysis: Young should be back in the leadoff spot tonight against Jon Niese and the Mets. Young doesn’t hit for power, but he gets on base and he can steal bags when he does. He’s a viable value option in the outfield. He’s very cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Jonny Gomes (FD: $2300, DK: $3600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.232 / ISO: 0.097

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