MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-20 19:06:43

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Samardzija (FD: $9500, DK: $8900)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.99 / xFIP: 3.07 / SIERA: 3.06
K/9: 8.28 / K%: 0.23 / BB%: 0.049

DET vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.388 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 0.181 (Rank: 8)

Samardzija has gotten off to a rocky start this season, posting a 4.80 xFIP in his first two starts. He has had trouble getting ground ball outs, as he only has a ground ball rate of 34% thus far. His strikeouts have also been down. It’s only a matter of time before he turns things around, but his strikeouts have been down ever since he moved from the National League to the American League. Samardzija draws a very tough matchup against the Tigers, who are ranked 2nd in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Rating = 6

David Price (FD: $11400, DK: $10100)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.26 / xFIP: 2.76 / SIERA: 2.72
K/9: 9.82 / K%: 0.269 / BB%: 0.038

CWS vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.242 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 0.279 (Rank: 26)

Price is always one of my favorite pitchers to target in daily fantasy baseball because he throws strikes, and he throws a lot of them. Last season he struck out 27% of the batters that he faced, while only walking 4% of those batters. Price’s assault on the strike zone keeps his pitch count down, which allows him to pitch deep into games. Price is getting expensive on FanDuel, but he’s still sitting at a very playable $10,100 on DraftKings. He is a large favorite at home against a White Sox team that has really struggled against left-handed pitching this season. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Jose Abreu (FD: $4300, DK: $4400) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.462 / ISO: 0.309

Avisail Garcia (FD: $3400, DK: $3500) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.421 / ISO: 0.267

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $5200, DK: $5200)

BA: 0.313 / wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.211
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 / ISO: 0.203

Cabrera is an excellent option if you are playing in the early slate today. He finished 2014 with a .385 wOBA and a .203 ISO against right-handed pitching and he’s facing Samardzija, who has struggled a bit in his first two starts with the White Sox. On a night with a full slate, you may want to avoid locking up your first baseman in the all-day leagues though.

Secondary Plays:

J.D. Martinez (FD: $4100, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.379 / ISO: 0.205

Anthony Gose (FD: $3400, DK: $3600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.295 / ISO: 0.074

San Diego at Chicago Cubs

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields (FD: $9400, DK: $8700)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.21 / xFIP: 3.56 / SIERA: 3.59
K/9: 7.14 / K%: 0.192 / BB%: 0.047

CHC vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 0.222 (Rank: 20)

Shields is going to benefit from 1. a move to the National League and 2. having half of his starts in Petco Park. We’ve seen a glimpse of the type of production that Shields can provide in the National League. In his first two starts, he has posted a 3.16 xFIP with a K/9 of 10.4. Shields draws a decent matchup against the Cubs in Wrigley, but a lot of his fantasy appeal will depend on the wind direction. As we all know, when the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, the ball carries and carries. Shields isn’t an elite play tonight, but he’s a good target if you are looking to differentiate your tournament lineups. Rating = 7

Jason Hammel (FD: $8100, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.47 / xFIP: 3.57 / SIERA: 3.5
K/9: 8.06 / K%: 0.221 / BB%: 0.062

SD vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 0.203 (Rank: 15)

Going straight off of expected production compared to his salary, Hammel is one of the most undervalued pitchers on the board tonight. He is coming off of a strong 2014 campaign, where he posted a 3.57 xFIP with a K/9 of 8.1. He is a high strikeout pitcher that offers a lot of upside for the measly price tag of $8,100 on FanDuel and $7,000 on DraftKings. His fantasy appeal also depends on the strength and direction of the wind, but as long as it’s not blowing out to center, he is in play as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites, as he squares off against the Padres. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Matt Kemp (FD: $3700, DK: $4900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.229

Justin Upton (FD: $4300, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.197

Chicago Cubs

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4300, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.253

Miguel Montero (FD: $3000, DK: $3100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.322 / ISO: 0.131

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

Pitcher Grind Down

Jimmy Nelson (FD: $6800, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.93 / xFIP: 3.92 / SIERA: 3.76
K/9: 7.4 / K%: 0.183 / BB%: 0.061

PIT vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.26 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 0.242 (Rank: 27)

Nelson had one of the worst spring performances of all starting pitchers, yet he came out of the gates firing against the Pirates in his first start of the season. He threw seven shutout innings at home, while racking up nine strikeouts. He’s shown that he has high-strikeout potential and his price is still very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He gets to face the same team that he shutout last week, although this time he will face them in Pittsburgh. It’s hard to see Nelson replicating that performance, but he’s certainly worth a look as an SP2 at his attractive price point. Rating = 6.5

Jeff Locke (FD: $6800, DK: $5900)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.91 / xFIP: 3.9 / SIERA: 4.07
K/9: 6.1 / K%: 0.162 / BB%: 0.073

MIL vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.255 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 0.136 (Rank: 3)

Locke is a below-average pitching option tonight, as this slate is loaded with aces on the mound. Locke finished 2014 with a 3.90 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.1. While the Brewers bats have been ice cold to start the season, they have a few hitters in their lineup that have excelled against left-handed pitching throughout their careers. Locke is priced in the same range as his pitching opponent, Jimmy Nelson, who has a little more upside. Rating = 5.5

Editor’s Note: The Pirates have changed starting pitchers. Jeff Locke is no longer starting. Vance Worley, a right-handed pitcher, will start instead. Worley’s career splits against lefties and righties are fairly neutral, but use caution with batters who favor left-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Ryan Braun (FD: $3800, DK: $4200)

BA: 0.266 / wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.187
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.236

Braun has gotten off to a slow start this season. He is 7-for-28 and he has yet to have a hit go for extra bases. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he ends that streak tonight against Locke, who gave up a .342 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. Meanwhile, Braun posted a .355 wOBA and a .236 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Secondary Plays:

Jonathan Lucroy (FD: $3500, DK: $3900) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.367 / ISO: 0.159

Aramis Ramirez (FD: $3000, DK: $3600) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.44 / ISO: 0.297

Khris Davis (FD: $2600, DK: $3900) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.336 / ISO: 0.218

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen (FD: $4700, DK: $4900)

BA: 0.314 / wOBA: 0.412 / ISO: 0.228
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.415 / ISO: 0.225

McCutchen is known for his power against left-handed pitching, but he posted similar splits against right-handed pitching last season. He finished the season with a .415 wOBA and a .225 ISO. In addition to his power, McCutchen also has good speed on the bases. He has stolen a combined 45 bases over the last two seasons.

Secondary Plays:

Josh Harrison (FD: $3100, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.363 / ISO: 0.184

Neil Walker (FD: $3500, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.364 / ISO: 0.222

Philadelphia at Washington

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean O’Sullivan (FD: $5800, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 6.39 / xFIP: 4.06 / SIERA: 4.31
K/9: 4.97 / K%: 0.135 / BB%: 0.039

WAS vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.274 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 0.256 (Rank: 28)

O’Sullivan is one of the worst pitching options on the board tonight. In 2014, his ERA was higher than his K/9, which is typically a huge red flag in daily fantasy baseball. When you are giving up more runs than strikeouts, you are going to have a hard time reaching value, regardless of your price point. Sullivan is the second-largest underdog on the schedule and can safely be avoided in all league formats. Rating = 2

Max Scherzer (FD: $11000, DK: $11700)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.15 / xFIP: 3.12 / SIERA: 2.98
K/9: 10.29 / K%: 0.279 / BB%: 0.07

PHI vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.254 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 0.23 (Rank: 21)

If Sean O’Sullivan is one of the largest underdogs, that obviously means that Scherzer is one of the biggest favorites. Scherzer is a -240 favorite against a Phillies’ offense that lacks power. Philadelphia is ranked 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, striking out at the 10th highest rate. Scherzer is a high-strikeout pitcher that rarely walks batters. He struck out 28% of the batters that he faced in 2014 and he should be able to have that elite rate again this season, especially now that he is pitching in the National League. Rating = 9.5

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

NO SECONDARY PLAYS

Washington

Bryce Harper (FD: $4200, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.273 / wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.151
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.144

It’s only been less than two weeks, but Harper has already let us down in some big spots this season. Hopefully he can right the DFS ship with a productive outing tonight against O’Sullivan, who gave up a whopping .443 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Harper is one of the top plays at any position tonight, and he’s very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Zimmerman (FD: $3600, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.179

Jayson Werth (FD: $3400, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.162

Wilson Ramos (FD: $3300, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.291 / ISO: 0.126

Atlanta at Toronto

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran (FD: $9000, DK: $8500)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.89 / xFIP: 3.72 / SIERA: 3.68
K/9: 7.57 / K%: 0.21 / BB%: 0.058

TOR vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 0.181 (Rank: 8)

While home/road splits aren’t the end all be all in daily fantasy baseball, they come into play for starting pitchers. Teheran has consistently been a much better pitcher at home than he has on the road. He has two things working against him tonight. He has to face a talented Blue Jays lineup in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre and he has to face them under American League rules. I typically like to avoid the pitcher in these interleague series’ that move from National League to American League ballparks. Rating = 5.5

Drew Hutchison (FD: $7400, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.48 / xFIP: 3.82 / SIERA: 3.59
K/9: 8.97 / K%: 0.234 / BB%: 0.076

ATL vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 0.163 (Rank: 3)

Hutchison was shelled in his last start, giving up seven earned runs in only four innings of work against the Orioles. His home/road splits also come into play tonight. Last season, Hutchison struggled at the Rogers Centre, giving up a higher xFIP, slugging percentage, and wOBA than he did on the road. Hutchison does provide great strikeout potential for a pitcher at his price point though, so he’s someone that you may want to consider as a tournament option. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman (FD: $3500, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.288 / wOBA: 0.374 / ISO: 0.173
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 / ISO: 0.188

Freeman has a lot working in his favor tonight, as the Braves head to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays. Right off the bat (pun), he sees a huge ballpark boost moving from Turner Field to the Rogers Centre. He also draws one of the best combined wOBA matchups on the board. Hutchison gave up a .353 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season, while Freeman posted a .388 wOBA and a .188 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Secondary Plays:

Nick Markakis (FD: $3000, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.332 / ISO: 0.135

A.J. Pierzynski (FD: $2700, DK: $3200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.298 / ISO: 0.098

Toronto

Jose Bautista (FD: $5100, DK: $4800)

BA: 0.286 / wOBA: 0.402 / ISO: 0.239
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 / ISO: 0.227

I’d love to target Edwin Encarnacion in this spot, but until he starts hitting or until his price comes way down, I will continue to avoid him. Bautista is certainly in play though. He finished 2014 with a .387 wOBA and a .227 ISO against right-handed pitching. Teheran has been efficient against right-handed hitters throughout his career, but he will have his hands full with the Blue Jays’ lineup in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

Secondary Plays:

Dalton Pompey (FD: $3300, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.431 / ISO: 0.320

Dioner Navarro (FD: $2600, DK: $3600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.120

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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