MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 17th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-17 19:08:11

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Warren (FD: $7200, DK: $4800)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.97 / xFIP: 3.28 / SIERA: 3.01
K/9: 8.69 / K%: 0.235 / BB%: 0.074

TB vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 0.203 (Rank: 15)

Warren has come out of the bullpen the last three seasons, but he’s a starter for the Yankees to start the season. He pitched pretty well in his first start, giving up only two runs in five innings of work. He did have a high strikeout rate as a reliever, but that’s tough to hold when you step into the starter’s role. He doesn’t provide enough upside at his price point, although I could see him reaching value on DraftKings ($4,800) if you want to use him as a flier in tournaments. Rating = 4.5

Nate Karns (FD: $7000, DK: $5900)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.5 / xFIP: 3.8 / SIERA: 3.24
K/9: 9.75 / K%: 0.265 / BB%: 0.082

NYY vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 0.22 (Rank: 19)

After a rough first outing against the Orioles, Karns bounced back nicely against the Marlins in his second start of the season. He finished the game with six strikeouts over seven innings of work, while only giving up two runs. Karns has good strikeout potential for a player at his price point, but he’s still far from a trustworthy fantasy option. Pitching is the most important position in daily fantasy baseball and it’s hard to justify using him as a starter in cash games with all of the aces on the mound tonight. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $4000, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.271 / wOBA: 0.327 / ISO: 0.148
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.137

Speed is one of the most undervalued qualities of a player in daily fantasy baseball. High on-base percentage players with great speed are a terrific source of fantasy production, especially when they bat at the top of the order. Ellsbury has stolen a combined 91 bases over the last two seasons and he’ll get the green light if he reaches base against Nate Karns and the Rays.

Secondary Plays:

Chase Headley (FD: $3200, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.129

Tampa Bay

Desmond Jennings (FD: $3200, DK: $4000)

BA: 0.244 / wOBA: 0.313 / ISO: 0.134
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 / ISO: 0.105

Evan Longoria would be the play here, but he left last night’s game after taking a pitch to the thigh. If he’s able to play, he’s certainly worth a look tonight against Adam Warren. Jennings is also a strong play. He’s right in that mid-range of options in the outfield and he has decent power and decent speed.

Secondary Plays:

Asdrubal Cabrera (FD: $2900, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.31 / ISO: 0.144

David DeJesus (FD: $2800, DK: $3300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.16

Miami at NY Mets

Pitcher Grind Down

David Phelps (FD: $5200, DK: $4600)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.38 / xFIP: 4.22 / SIERA: 4.21
K/9: 7.33 / K%: 0.185 / BB%: 0.093

NYM vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 0.17 (Rank: 4)

With Henderson Alvarez injured, Phelps will draw the start for the Marlins tonight. He has plenty of experience in this role, as he has posted a 4.38 ERA over 40 career starts. Phelps should benefit moving from the American League to the National League and he sees a ballpark boost with this game being played in Citi Field. He’s a sizable underdog though, and the Mets’ offense has started to come alive in their last few games. He’s an intriguing play at his price point, but there are much safer options for cash games. Rating = 5.5

Bartolo Colon (FD: $8400, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.09 / xFIP: 3.68 / SIERA: 3.75
K/9: 6.72 / K%: 0.179 / BB%: 0.036

MIA vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.273 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 0.217 (Rank: 18)

Old man cologne smells bad. Old man Colon pitches good. Who knew? In his first two starts of the season, Colon has posted a 2.44 xFIP with a K/9 of 9.0. Colon always has great command, as evidenced by his walk rate of 3.6% last season. He deserves consideration tonight against the Marlins, who are currently ranked 25h in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Colon is a sizable favorite at -143 and he should see some run support with the Mets’ offense heating up. Rating = 7.5

Batter Grind Down

Miami

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4900, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.262

Dee Gordon (FD: $4200, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.310 / ISO: 0.090

Christian Yelich (FD: $3500, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.116

NY Mets

Michael Cuddyer (FD: $3000, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.332 / wOBA: 0.414 / ISO: 0.247
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.194

Even though he has moved his home ballpark from Coors Field to Citi Field, Cuddyer hasn’t seemed to notice. He has been red-hot to start the season, as he has racked up seven hits and five RBIs over his last five games. Cuddyer hits both left and right-handed pitching well and I will continue to take advantage of his cheap price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Cuddyer also draws a favorable matchup against David Phelps, who has some serious reverse splits.

Secondary Plays:

Lucas Duda (FD: $4100, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.394 / ISO: 0.270

Curtis Granderson (FD: $3000, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.159

Baltimore at Boston

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez (FD: $6700, DK: $6000)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.81 / xFIP: 4.48 / SIERA: 4.61
K/9: 8.33 / K%: 0.21 / BB%: 0.139

BOS vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 0.151 (Rank: 2)

Before we get into the analysis, I have a funny story about Ubaldo and really baseball in general. I was in Denver last week for the DFS Boot Camp and all of the presenters were in charge of helping their group come up with a team for that night’s slate of games. Birdwings, who is one of my favorite people in the industry, was in charge of his group that all wanted to target Ubaldo Jimenez against the Orioles. Obviously, Jimenez has the potential to get rocked every time he takes the mound. He dominated the Orioles that night and put up 34.6 fantasy points, which ended up outscoring their entire team that they created. For the record, my group’s team wasn’t much better. But that’s just the nature of baseball. We have to be able to accept and even embrace variance in the daily game that we love.

Anyway, back to Jimenez. What was even more impressive than his eight strikeouts in his first start of the season was the fact that he only walked one batter. Jimenez has a few flaws, but arguably his biggest is his command. He walked 14% of the batters that he faced last season, which is one of the highest walk rates among qualified starters. I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid just yet, though. He draws a very difficult matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway tonight. Rating = 4.5

Joe Kelly (FD: $6599, DK: $5100)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.2 / xFIP: 4.19 / SIERA: 4.29
K/9: 6.17 / K%: 0.159 / BB%: 0.101

BAL vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.359 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 0.262 (Rank: 30)

Kelly is not a pitcher that you are going to see on my rosters often this season. I have nothing against him personally, but he just doesn’t have that upside that I look for in a pitcher. He finished last season with a 4.19 xFIP, a 6.2 K/9, and a walk rate of 10.1%. All of which are mediocre at best. He pitched well in his first start of the season, but like Vegas, I’m expecting this game to be one of the highest-scoring games of the night. There is a special on Kelly tonight on FanDuel though, you can target him for a low price of $6,599! Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Adam Jones (FD: $4900, DK: $5300)

BA: 0.281 / wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.188
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.31 / ISO: 0.165

Due to the high variance in baseball, it’s usually tough to separate what is a hot streak and what is randomness. I think it’s safe to say that Jones is in the midst of a hot streak. He has 12 hits in his last six games including four home runs, nine RBIs, and nine runs. Most hitters would take that type of production over the course of an entire month, let alone in a six-game stretch. Continue targeting Jones until his price matches his recent level of production.

Secondary Plays:

Chris Davis (FD: $3500, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.199

Alejandro De Aza (FD: $3100, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.149

Travis Snider (FD: $3000, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.164

Boston

David Ortiz (FD: $3700, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.263 / wOBA: 0.369 / ISO: 0.255
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 / ISO: 0.248

The Red Sox have one of the highest team totals on the board tonight and I want to have as much exposure to the left-handed batters in this lineup as possible. Ortiz draws one of the best combined wOBA matchups on the schedule. He finished last season with a .364 wOBA against right-handed pitching, while Jimenez gave up a .354 wOBA to batters that hit from the left side of the plate.

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez (FD: $4200, DK: $5500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.156

Pablo Sandoval (FD: $3500, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.359 / ISO: 0.144 – Day-to-day with a foot injury.

Mookie Betts (FD: $3100, DK: $4900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.358 / ISO: 0.153

Daniel Nava (FD: $2300, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.345 / ISO: 0.103

Oakland at Kansas City

Pitcher Grind Down

Sonny Gray (FD: $9400, DK: $8300)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.08 / xFIP: 3.47 / SIERA: 3.56
K/9: 7.52 / K%: 0.204 / BB%: 0.082

KC vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.397 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 0.14 (Rank: 1)

Gray draws one of the worst matchups on the board tonight. The Royals are ranked 1st in all of the wrong categories for an opposing pitcher. They are ranked 1st in wOBA against right-handed pitching, as well as strikeout rate on the season. There is little upside when you target a pitcher against the Royals and Gray is a little overpriced anyway. He can safely be avoided in all league formats tonight. Rating = 5.5

Jeremy Guthrie (FD: $8300, DK: $5700)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.13 / xFIP: 4.33 / SIERA: 4.34
K/9: 5.51 / K%: 0.144 / BB%: 0.057

OAK vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 0.189 (Rank: 10)

With all of the great pitching options on the mound tonight, Guthrie is not on my radar. He is a mediocre right-handed pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate. Last season he finished with a K/9 of 5.5 and a strikeout rate of only 14.4%. He also draws a tough matchup against the A’s, who are ranked 6th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Ike Davis (FD: $2700, DK: $3900)

BA: 0.233 / wOBA: 0.324 / ISO: 0.144
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 / ISO: 0.159

If you are new to daily fantasy baseball this season, I’ll give you a quick tip for whenever Guthrie is on the mound. Target left-handed hitters that are facing him and avoid the batters that hit from the right side of the plate. Pretty easy right? Guthrie gave up a .364 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season, which was nearly 100 points higher than the wOBA he gave up to right-handed hitters. Davis hits right-handed pitching well and he’s very cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Ben Zobrist (FD: $3700, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.118 – Day-to-day with a heel injury.

Josh Reddick (FD: $3300, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.367 / ISO: 0.239

Sam Fuld (FD: $3100, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.295 / ISO: 0.111

Kansas City

Lorenzo Cain (FD: $3500, DK: $4300)

BA: 0.301 / wOBA: 0.330 / ISO: 0.110
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 / ISO: 0.092

Cain has been one of my go-to plays in the first two weeks of the season and he has yet to let me down. He is 12-for-31 with eight RBIs in the early going. Cain has more power against left-handed pitching, but that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid him every time he faces a right-handed pitcher. He’s still an affordable outfield play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Moustakas (FD: $3100, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.289 / ISO: 0.151

LA Angels at Houston

Pitcher Grind Down

Jered Weaver (FD: $8400, DK: $7500)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.59 / xFIP: 4.3 / SIERA: 4.18
K/9: 7.13 / K%: 0.19 / BB%: 0.073

HOU vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.267 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 0.261 (Rank: 29)

Weaver is not a pitcher that I will be targeting often, if at all, this season. His fastball is maxing out at around 81-82 MPH, which just isn’t going to cut it. In his first two starts of the season, his xFIP (5.17) is almost as high as his K/9 (5.23). He does face a strikeout-happy Astros’ lineup tonight, but I’ll side with the Astros on this one. There is a reason why Vegas this game installed as one of the highest projected games on the board. Rating = 4.5

Roberto Hernandez (FD: $5900, DK: $4600)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.1 / xFIP: 4.52 / SIERA: 4.67
K/9: 5.74 / K%: 0.145 / BB%: 0.101

LAA vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.273 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 0.195 (Rank: 14)

Fausto Carmona errrr Roberto Hernandez takes the mound for the Astros tonight against the Angels and he can safely be avoided in all league formats. Hernandez has a low strikeout rate and he is coming off of a disappointing outing against the Rangers in his first start of the season. The Angels should have no problem hanging a large number on Hernandez in the home run-friendly Minute Maid Park. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout (FD: $5700, DK: $5800)

BA: 0.287 / wOBA: 0.402 / ISO: 0.274
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 / ISO: 0.283

There are few times that I would consider paying close to $6,000 for Mike Trout in cash games. Tonight is one of those times. Trout has tremendous power against right-handed pitching and he is facing a below-average pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark. Minute Maid Park had the 5th-highest home run rate for right-handed batters last season.

Secondary Plays:

Albert Pujols (FD: $4000, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.201

David Freese (FD: $3400, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.294 / ISO: 0.110

Matt Joyce (FD: $3200, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.13

Erick Aybar (FD: $3000, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.320 / ISO: 0.103

Houston

Luis Valbuena (FD: $3000, DK: $3700)

BA: 0.249 / wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.186
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.208

As mentioned above, Weaver just doesn’t have the same velocity that he used to. The Astros’ bats could be a very sneaky stack tonight. While batters from both sides of the plate are in play, we have to give the edge to the left-handed bats in this lineup. Weaver gave up a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season, while Valbuena posted a .355 wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Altuve (FD: $4100, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.340 / ISO: 0.100

Jed Lowrie (FD: $3400, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.314 / ISO: 0.112

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3