MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 24th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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NY Mets at NY Yankees
| NY Mets | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Jacob Degrom |  | Michael Pineda | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY (-120) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.639 | 0.289 | 23.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.195 | 0.534 | 0.233 | 20.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.594 | 0.264 | 26.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.201 | 0.517 | 0.230 | 19.70% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jacob deGrom (FD: $9700, DK: $9000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.20 — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% — Walk Rate: 3.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.03 — Strikeout Rate: 25.5% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.4%
New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 9)
Strikoute Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 21)
Analysis: DeGrom is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. He finished 2014 with a 3.30 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 25.5%. He’s off to a good start this season, posting a 3.20 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 21.8%. While the Yankees have hit right-handed pitching well this season, they have also struck out at a fairly high clip. DeGrom isn’t a huge favorite, which limits his appeal on single-pitcher sites like FanDuel, but he’s certainly in play as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating: 75.3
Michael Pineda (FD: $8700, DK: $7600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.33 — Strikeout Rate: 26.7% — Walk Rate: 2.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.37 — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% — Walk Rate: 2.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.1%
New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 15)
Strikoute Rate: 15.5% (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Pineda has given up ten earned runs in his first 18 innings of work this season, but his xFIP suggests that he is pitching much better than that. He has had an elite strikeout rate of 26.7% and he rarely ever issues walks to his opponents. I love targeting pitchers that throw strikes and Pineda fits that bill. He does draw a surprisingly tough matchup against the Mets though, who have struck out at the second-lowest rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating: 71.6
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda (FD: $3900, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.233 — OBP: 0.375
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.270 — OBP: 0.372
Curtis Granderson (FD: $3000, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.025 — OBP: 0.392
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.159 — OBP: 0.324
NY Yankees
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $3800, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.252 — ISO: 0.024 — OBP: 0.289
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.137 — OBP: 0.316
Atlanta at Philadelphia
| Atlanta | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Alex Wood |  | Aaron Harang | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ATL (-110) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.667 | 0.299 | 26.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.284 | 0.747 | 0.330 | 17.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.645 | 0.288 | 24.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.702 | 0.312 | 19.20% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Alex Wood (FD: $8200, DK: $8800)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.60 — Strikeout Rate: 14.3% — Walk Rate: 10.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.19 — Strikeout Rate: 24.5% — Walk Rate: 6.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.9%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.334 (Rank: 7)
Strikoute Rate: 15.9% (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Wood’s numbers are all trending in the wrong direction this season. Granted, it’s only been three starts, but his xFIP and walk rate are both up, while his strikeout rate is way down. We typically like to target pitchers facing the Phillies, but they have actually hit left-handed pitching well this season. They are ranked third in wOBA against left-handed pitching with a team .334 wOBA. Until Wood can piece together a few quality outings in a row, he will remain a GPP option.
Pitcher Rating: 65.6
Aaron Harang (FD: $7500, DK: $6600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.97 — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 33.3%
2014: xFIP: 4.03 — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% — Walk Rate: 8.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.4%
Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 11)
Strikoute Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Harang’s three starts this season have gotten progressively worse. After shutting out the Red Sox, he gave up one run to the Mets and then three runs to the Nationals. While the Braves’ offense may be over-performing right now, they are not a team that is going to strike out often. In fact, they have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. Harang isn’t really on my radar for tonight’s full slate of games.
Pitcher Rating: 58.0
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman (FD: $3700, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.333 — OBP: 0.324
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.397
Analysis: Freeman’s price is very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup against Aaron Harang, who gave up a .330 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Meanwhile, Freeman posted a .388 wOBA and a .188 ISO against right-handed pitching. He can hit for average and for power and Citizens Bank Park grades out as a top-ten ballpark for left-handed hitters.
Secondary Plays:
Nick Markakis (FD: $3200, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.488 — ISO: 0.038 — OBP: 0.588
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.135 — OBP: 0.342
Philadelphia
Carlos Ruiz (FD: $2200, DK: $2900)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.400
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.182 — OBP: 0.400
Analysis: If you are looking to punt the catcher position tonight, Ruiz is a screaming deal on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Ruiz has always hit left-handed pitching well, posting a .372 wOBA against southpaws in 2014. He will likely be batting in the hear of the order tonight against Alex Wood, who has given up a .372 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.
Secondary Plays:
Freddy Galvis (FD: $2400, DK: $3000)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.535 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.571
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.211 — ISO: 0.136 — OBP: 0.178
Boston at Baltimore
| Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Rick Porcello |  | Miguel Gonzalez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-115) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.732 | 0.320 | 14.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.772 | 0.340 | 15.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.686 | 0.302 | 16.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.724 | 0.321 | 18.50% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Rick Porcello (FD: $8000, DK: $6300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.94 — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.68 — Strikeout Rate: 15.4% — Walk Rate: 4.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.351 (Rank: 5)
Strikoute Rate: 24.5% (Rank: 29)
Analysis: When the Red Sox and Orioles face each other, runs usually come in bunches. Camden Yards is a terrific ballpark for offensive production and Vegas is expecting a high-scoring game here tonight. The total is set at 8.5 runs, which really limits the fantasy appeal of both pitchers. Porcello is not a high-strikeout pitcher and he’s facing an Orioles’ offense that is currently ranked fifth in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating: 48.7
Miguel Gonzalez (FD: $8000, DK: $6400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.13 — Strikeout Rate: 27.4% — Walk Rate: 13.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 60.5%
2014: xFIP: 4.46 — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.3%
Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 16)
Strikoute Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 5)
Analysis: Gonzalez’s numbers this season don’t look anything like they did in 2014. His xFIP, strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate are all vastly different than they were last season. I’ll trust the sample size of the 2014 season over his few starts this year. Gonzalez has never been a high-strikeout pitcher and he draws a tough matchup against a very capable Red Sox offense tonight. There are safer pitching options on the board, especially at his price point.
Pitcher Rating: 52.3
Batter Grind Down
Boston
David Ortiz (FD: $3600, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.263 — OBP: 0.417
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.248 — OBP: 0.359
Analysis: Even though he is getting up there in years, Ortiz still has terrific pop in his bat, especially against right-handed pitching. He has a .407 wOBA against righties this season, with a .263 ISO. He draws a favorable matchup against Miguel Gonzalez in Camden Yards, which is graded out as the third-best ballpark for left-handed hitters.
Secondary Plays:
Hanley Ramirez (FD: $4000, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.286 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.280
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.156 — OBP: 0.362
Mookie Betts (FD: $3400, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.244 — ISO: 0.102 — OBP: 0.255
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.153 — OBP: 0.371
Baltimore
Travis Snider (FD: $2800, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.156 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.164 — OBP: 0.324
Analysis: Snider has been a terrific addition to the Orioles’ offense. He typically bats third or fifth against right-handed pitchers and he offers great value tonight in the outfield. He draws a favorable matchup against Rick Porcello, who gave up a .320 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Plus, this game takes place in Camden Yards, which is a great ballpark for those that can hit from the left side of the plate.
Secondary Plays:
Chris Davis (FD: $3500, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.139 — OBP: 0.333
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.199 — OBP: 0.318
Alejandro De Aza (FD: $2800, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.205 — OBP: 0.304
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.149 — OBP: 0.340
Cleveland at Detroit
| Cleveland | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Danny Salazar |  | Shane Greene | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-135) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.695 | 0.309 | 27.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.765 | 0.345 | 16.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.284 | 0.786 | 0.342 | 24.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.661 | 0.297 | 31.10% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Danny Salazar (FD: $8100, DK: $7700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 1.88 — Strikeout Rate: 41.7% — Walk Rate: 8.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 16.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.45 — Strikeout Rate: 25.3% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 34.4%
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.357 (Rank: 3)
Strikoute Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Salazar looked great in his first start of the season, racking up ten strikeouts over six innings of work against the Twins. He has always had terrific strikeout potential, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that can struggle with his command at time. He’s typically a better GPP play than a cash game play because he has that boom or bust nature to his game. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Tigers, who are ranked third in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating: 57.9
Shane Greene (FD: $8700, DK: $7100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.08 — Strikeout Rate: 13.8% — Walk Rate: 6.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.40 — Strikeout Rate: 23.5% — Walk Rate: 8.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.2%
Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.284 (Rank: 23)
Strikoute Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 14)
Analysis: Greene has pitched a combined 23 innings in his first three starts and he has only allowed a single run. His xFIP tells a different story though, as it is nearly four runs higher than his ERA. Greene’s kept his walks in check this season, but he has seen a dip in his strikeout numbers. He draws a decent matchup against the Indians, whose offense has been ice cold to start the season. He’s a small favorite here, but the high xFIP is a little bit of a red flag in my eyes.
Pitcher Rating: 66.3
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Santana (FD: $3500, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.310 — OBP: 0.314
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.195 — OBP: 0.351
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4600, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.483 — ISO: 0.171 — OBP: 0.511
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.374
Analysis: Danny Salazar is a reverse-splits pitcher. In 2014, he gave up a .342 wOBA to right-handed hitters, while holding those from the left side of the plate to a .304 wOBA. Cabrera has mashed right-handed pitching this season with a .483 wOBA and a .511 OBP. Salazar is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which could be trouble against this powerful Tigers’ lineup.
Secondary Plays:
J.D. Martinez (FD: $3900, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.298 — OBP: 0.265
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.205 — OBP: 0.357
Anthony Gose (FD: $3200, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.457 — ISO: 0.207 — OBP: 0.433
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.074 — OBP: 0.329
Toronto at Tampa Bay
| Toronto | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | R.A. Dickey |  | Drew Smyly | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TB (-110) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.220 | 0.665 | 0.300 | 17.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.170 | 0.486 | 0.216 | 27.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.736 | 0.324 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.763 | 0.334 | 19.20% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | Batter Splits | TB BvP | TB vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
R.A. Dickey (FD: $8100, DK: $8200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.99 — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% — Walk Rate: 15.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.0%
2014: xFIP: 4.14 — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% — Walk Rate: 8.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 14)
Strikoute Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Dickey’s strikeouts are up this season, but so are his walks. He has shown awful command in his first three starts, walking 12 batters in only 19 innings of work. Dickey always has that tournament appeal thanks to his style of pitching, but he’s a risky fantasy option tonight against the Rays. Even though the Rays’ offense isn’t overwhelming, they drew five walks and scored two runs against Dickey in their first meeting of the season.
Pitcher Rating: 58.2
Drew Smyly (FD: $7700, DK: $7800)
Pitching Stats:
2014: xFIP: 3.76 — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% — Walk Rate: 6.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.354 (Rank: 4)
Strikoute Rate: 13.9% (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Smyly will be making his first start of the year, after being placed on the DL with a shoulder injury for the first few weeks of the season. Smyly only pitched 3.2 innings in his last rehab start and he will likely be on a pitch count tonight against the Blue Jays. This wouldn’t be a matchup to target a pitcher against anyway, especially not one that is expected to be limited.
Pitcher Rating: 48.3
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Josh Donaldson (FD: $4300, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.565 — ISO: 0.111 — OBP: 0.636
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.353 — OBP: 0.380
Analysis: DraftKings is typically very sharp with their pricing, but I think they missed the boat on Donaldson tonight. He is only $4,200 against a left-handed pitcher. Donaldson’s numbers against southpaws in 2014 were impressive, but they are even better this season. He currently has a .565 wOBA and a .636 OBP against left-handed pitching. I’ll gladly take Donaldson at this price point against Drew Smyly, who is making his first start of the season.
Secondary Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion (FD: $4200, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.300 — OBP: 0.300
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.232 — OBP: 0.375
Devon Travis (FD: $3100, DK: $3100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.589 — ISO: 0.636 — OBP: 0.417
Tampa Bay
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Evan Longoria (FD: $3300, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.175 — OBP: 0.333
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.301
Steven Souza (FD: $4100, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.231 — OBP: 0.386
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.073 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.105