MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 24th - Page Three
Pittsburgh at Arizona
| Pittsburgh | Arizona | ||||||||
 | Gerrit Cole |  | Josh Collmenter | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-139) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.729 | 0.326 | 0.221 | SP vs. Left | 0.28 | 0.741 | 0.327 | 0.126 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.659 | 0.294 | 0.261 | SP vs. Right | 0.201 | 0.608 | 0.268 | 0.194 |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Gerrit Cole (FD: $8700, DK: $8200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.25 — Strikeout Rate: 29.0% — Walk Rate: 7.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 65.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.25 — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% — Walk Rate: 7.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 18)
Strikoute Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Cole will not be priced at this level for much longer, which allows us one final opportunity to target him under $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Cole has an elite strikeout rate, his xFIP is terrific, and he produces a high ground-ball rate. He basically has everything that we are looking for in a pitcher. His matchup against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field is mediocre at best, but Vegas has him installed as a sizable favorite. Cole is one of my favorite pitching options tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 76.7
Josh Collmenter (FD: $7000, DK: $5400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.35 — Strikeout Rate: 8.9% — Walk Rate: 3.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.2%
2014: xFIP: 4.07 — Strikeout Rate: 16.0% — Walk Rate: 5.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.277 (Rank: 25)
Strikoute Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 24)
Analysis: Collmenter has good home splits, but that’s about all he has in his favor. He doesn’t have a high strikeout rate and he’ll likely struggle to get run support tonight with Gerrit Cole on the mound for the Pirates. Even though the numbers don’t show it, the Pirates were one of the best teams in baseball against right-handed pitching last season. Collmenter provides more risk than potential reward tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 57.2
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Gregory Polanco (FD: $3400, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.160 — OBP: 0.308
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.123 — OBP: 0.342
Analysis: Polanco is a great daily fantasy play because he can hit for average, he can hit for power, and he has great speed. He already has seven extra-base hits and five stolen bases this season. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Josh Collmenter and he also sees a small ballpark boost going from PNC Park to Chase Field.
Secondary Plays:
Josh Harrison (FD: $3000, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.237 — ISO: 0.096 — OBP: 0.236
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.184 — OBP: 0.340
Neil Walker (FD: $3100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.159 — OBP: 0.277
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.222 — OBP: 0.339
Arizona
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Ender Inciarte (FD: $3100, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.279
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.097 — OBP: 0.315
David Peralta (FD: $2900, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.267 — OBP: 0.314
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.342
Texas at LA Angels
| Texas | LA Angels | ||||||||
 | Wandy Rodriguez |  | Garrett Richards | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAA (-185) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.194 | 0.519 | 0.237 | 0.246 | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.313 | 1.087 | 0.463 | 0.16 | SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.542 | 0.252 | 0.237 |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | ANA BvP | ANA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wandy Rodriguez (FD: N/A, DK: N/A)
Pitching Stats:
2014: xFIP: 4.34 — Strikeout Rate: 16.0% — Walk Rate: 6.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.4%
LA Angels of Anaheim vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 11)
Strikoute Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Rodriguez is not available on either FanDuel or DraftKings.
Pitcher Rating: 42.0
Garrett Richards (FD: $8500, DK: $9500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.24 — Strikeout Rate: 16.0% — Walk Rate: 16.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 70.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.15 — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% — Walk Rate: 7.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.9%
Texas Rangers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 26)
Strikoute Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Richards is getting zero love from experts across the industry, which makes me believe that he is going to have a very low ownership percentage, even though he is the second-largest favorite on the board. Richards was rusty in his first start since tearing his patella tendon last August, but he threw 100 pitches in that outing. He should be in line for a much better outing tonight against the Rangers, who are ranked 26th in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Richards was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season and I’m willing to buy my shares early in a favorable home matchup against Texas.
Pitcher Rating: 79.5
Batter Grind Down
Texas
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
NO SECONDARY PLAYS
Mike Trout (FD: $5500, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.265 — ISO: 0.077 — OBP: 0.353
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.248 — OBP: 0.386
Analysis: Even with the game in Coors Field, Trout is the top batter on the board tonight. His numbers against left-handed pitching are down this season, but he had a .398 wOBA and a .248 ISO against southpaws last season. Trout has great power and he can still steal a base every now and then. He draws a fantastic matchup against Wandy Rodriguez.
Secondary Plays:
Albert Pujols (FD: $3500, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.080 — ISO: 0.063 — OBP: 0.063
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.173 — OBP: 0.301
David Freese (FD: $3300, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.671 — ISO: 0.714 — OBP: 0.467
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.170 — OBP: 0.386
Erick Aybar (FD: $2700, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.224 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.267
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.273 — ISO: 0.093 — OBP: 0.281
Houston at Oakland
| Houston | Oakland | ||||||||
 | Dallas Keuchel |  | Scott Kazmir | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| OAK (-124) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | ||||||||
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dallas Keuchel (FD: $8300, DK: $7500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.23 — Strikeout Rate: 18.0% — Walk Rate: 11.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 74.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.20 — Strikeout Rate: 18.1% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 63.5%
Oakland Athletics vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.283 (Rank: 25)
Strikoute Rate: 15.4% (Rank: 3)
Analysis: If you were to only look at Keuchel’s xFIP and strikeout rate, you would peg him as a slightly above average pitcher. The statistic that I love the most when it comes to Keuchel is his elite ground ball rate. He produced a 63.5% ground ball rate in 2014 and he has a 74.5% ground ball rate so far this season. It’s extremely tough for opponents to hit for extra bases when they can’t get the ball out of the infield. While I don’t love the matchup against the A’s, I still like Keuchel as a tournament play tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 64.4
Scott Kazmir (FD: $9100, DK: $8500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.92 — Strikeout Rate: 29.9% — Walk Rate: 7.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.59 — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% — Walk Rate: 6.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.8%
Houston Astros vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 15)
Strikoute Rate: 27.1% (Rank: 27)
Analysis: Kazmir is going to be one of the most popular plays at pitcher tonight. I’m not quite as high on him as most, but it’s hard to ignore the upside that he offers against the Astros. Houston has struck out at the fourth-highest clip of any team against left-handed pitching this season and Kazmir carved them up for eight strikeouts in their first meeting this season. I have no qualms talking Kazmir tonight, but I may be in the minority when I say that I have Jon Lester ranked higher than him.
Pitcher Rating: 75.0
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Jose Altuve (FD: $4100, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.545 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.500
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.447
Analysis: Altuve is always in play when the Astros are facing a left-handed pitcher. He had a .440 wOBA against southpaws last season and he is currently sporting a .545 wOBA this season. He has decent power for a lead-off hitter and he is always a threat to steal a base or two. Altuve has also had success off of Kazmir in the past, going 11-for-22 with 4 extra-base hits.
Secondary Plays:
NO SECONDARY PLAYS
Oakland
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Billy Butler (FD: $3500, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.580 — ISO: 0.333 — OBP: 0.615
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.139 — OBP: 0.387
Minnesota at Seattle
| Minnesota | Seattle | ||||||||
 | Phil Hughes |  | Felix Hernandez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SEA (-205) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | ||||||||
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Phil Hughes (FD: $8000, DK: $8000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.98 — Strikeout Rate: 15.9% — Walk Rate: 2.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 28.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.18 — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% — Walk Rate: 1.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.5%
Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 17)
Strikoute Rate: 21.4% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Hughes hasn’t been as sharp as he was last season, but he has a 3.98 xFIP through this first few starts. He has one of the lowest walk rates in all of baseball, but he also has one of the lowest ground-ball rates. Hughes is the largest underdog on the board tonight, as the Mariners have their ace, Felix Hernandez on the mound. Hughes can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating: 60.1
Felix Hernandez (FD: $11500, DK: $11300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.78 — Strikeout Rate: 31.1% — Walk Rate: 6.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 59.5%
2014: xFIP: 2.51 — Strikeout Rate: 27.2% — Walk Rate: 5.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 56.2%
Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.266 (Rank: 28)
Strikoute Rate: 23.4% (Rank: 26)
Analysis: King Felix is the elite pitching option on the board tonight. He is off to a great start this season, posting a 2.78xFIP with a terrific strikeout rate of 31.1%. There are few pitchers in baseball that strike out more batters than Hernandez and he has to be licking his chops for tonight’s matchup against the Twins. Minnesota is currently ranked 28th in wOBA against right-handed pitching, striking out at the 5th-highest rate of any team. Felix is the cash game KING tonight.
Pitcher Rating: 94.2
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
NO SECONDARY PLAYS
Seattle
Seth Smith (FD: $2300, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.185 — OBP: 0.333
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.186 — OBP: 0.359
Analysis: Phil Hughes is a reverse-splits pitcher, but that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid taking left-handed hitters against him. Smith is extremely cheap on FanDuel and he’s at a very playable $3,400 on DraftKings. He has good power against right-handed pitching and he’ll see a sizable fantasy boost if he is batting near the top of the Mariners’ lineup.
Secondary Plays:
Nelson Cruz (FD: $5100, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.265 — OBP: 0.314
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.310
Kyle Seager (FD: $3700, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.225 — OBP: 0.348
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.358
LA Dodgers at San Diego
| LA Dodgers | San Diego | ||||||||
 | Zack Greinke |  | Andrew Cashner | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-121) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | ||||||||
| Batter Splits | LA BvP | LA vs R | Batter Splits | SD BvP | SD vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Zack Greinke (FD: $10000, DK: $10100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.29 — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% — Walk Rate: 2.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.0%
2014: xFIP: 2.72 — Strikeout Rate: 25.2% — Walk Rate: 5.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.7%
San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 12)
Strikoute Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 12)
Analysis: Greinke is the second-best pitcher on the mound tonight, but I don’t find myself using him in cash games or tournaments. He is a little too expensive for a road start against a much-improved Padres’ offense. Greinke provides good strikeout potential and he does get to pitch in Petco Park, but I’d rather pay a little more for Felix Hernandez at home against the Twins.
Pitcher Rating: 80.5
Andrew Cashner (FD: $8800, DK: $8100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.33 — Strikeout Rate: 25.3% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.53 — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% — Walk Rate: 5.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.378 (Rank: 1)
Strikoute Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Cashner is an intriguing tournament option tonight against the Dodgers. He has already given up 12 runs this season, but only five of them were earned. Cashner was terrific at Petco Park last season, posting a 1.43 ERA while holding his opponents to a .216 wOBA. The only reason that I am not considering him in cash games is his matchup. The Dodgers are ranked 1st in wOBA against right-handed pitching and they roughed Cashner up for six runs in their first meeting this season.
Pitcher Rating: 70.5
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $4700, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.593 — ISO: 0.500 — OBP: 0.510
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.236 — OBP: 0.362
San Diego
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
NO SECONDARY PLAYS