MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 24th - Page Two

Washington at Miami

Washington Miami
washingtonmlb Jordan Zimmermann miamimlb Mat Latos
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS (-110) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.254 0.655 0.29 0.193 SP vs. Left 0.233 0.609 0.271 0.177
SP vs. Right 0.23 0.606 0.269 0.263 SP vs. Right 0.236 0.691 0.306 0.176
Batter Splits WAS BvP WAS vs R Batter Splits MIA BvP MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Zimmermann (FD: $9400, DK: $8300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.70 — Strikeout Rate: 10.3% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.10 — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% — Walk Rate: 3.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.1%

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 20)
Strikoute Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 27)

Analysis: Zimmermann’s numbers are all trending in the wrong direction this season. His xFIP and walk rate are both up from last year, while his strikeout rate and ground ball rate are both down. He’s been one of the better pitchers in the National League in the last few years and he’ll likely turn things around soon. He is overpriced on FanDuel tonight, but he’s sitting at a very playable $8,300 on DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup against the Marlins in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Pitcher Rating: 71.1

Mat Latos (FD: $7500, DK: $6700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.57 — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% — Walk Rate: 12.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 24.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.99 — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% — Walk Rate: 6.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.7%

Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.284 (Rank: 23)
Strikoute Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Latos has yet to pitch more than five innings this season and he has given up at least two runs in each of his first three starts. He is not the same high-strikeout pitcher that he used to be and his command has been off this season. He draws a favorable matchup against the ice-cold offense of the Nationals, but is a very risky fantasy option tonight. With his current level of production, he should be priced much cheaper than he is.

Pitcher Rating: 52.6

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Bryce Harper (FD: $4400, DK: $4400)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.293 — OBP: 0.408
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.144 — OBP: 0.348

Analysis: Harper has been on a solid run over his last nine games. He has scored at least one fantasy point on FanDuel in every game during that stretch, which is tough to do considering the fact that they negate points for outs. Harper has a .400 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and he gets to face a pitcher that I have very little confidence in.

Secondary Plays:

Ian Desmond (FD: $3900, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.102 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.178 — OBP: 0.307

Miami

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4900, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.255 — OBP: 0.364
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.262 — OBP: 0.382

Dee Gordon (FD: $3900, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.085 — OBP: 0.420
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.090 — OBP: 0.322

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati

Chicago Cubs Cincinnati
cubsmlb Jon Lester cincinnatimlb Mike Leake
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC (-110) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.254 0.696 0.309 0.251 SP vs. Left 0.288 0.801 0.352 0.138
SP vs. Right 0.227 0.617 0.275 0.248 SP vs. Right 0.236 0.674 0.297 0.216
Batter Splits CHC BvP CHC vs R Batter Splits CIN BvP CIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester (FD: $9000, DK: $8700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.84 — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% — Walk Rate: 5.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.10 — Strikeout Rate: 24.9% — Walk Rate: 5.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.4%

Cincinnati Reds vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 23)
Strikoute Rate: 23.0% (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Through his first three starts, Lester has given up 24 hits and 12 earned runs in only 15.1 innings of work. His 6.89 ERA may be alarming to most, but his numbers above look nearly identical to those that he put up last season. He has a 2.84 xFIP with a 19.4% strikeout rate. His BABIP of .434 is not going to last long, as we typically see that number around .300 for most pitchers. He draws a fantastic matchup tonight against the Reds, who are ranked 23rd in wOBA against left-handed pitching. He’s not a large favorite which limits his appeal on single-pitcher sites, but he’s one of my favorite SP2’s for multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating: 78.4

Mike Leake (FD: $7300, DK: $6800)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.09 — Strikeout Rate: 15.7% — Walk Rate: 8.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.49 — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% — Walk Rate: 5.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.4%

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 10)
Strikoute Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 17)

Analysis: Leake is a pitcher that I don’t mind targeting when the matchup is right. While he doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate, he’s not priced as an elite strikeout pitcher. He finished the 2014 season with a 3.49 xFIP, a 5.5% walk rate, and a 53.4% ground ball rate. He gets a small strikeout boost with his matchup against the swinging Cubs, but Chicago has a very talented young core of players. I see Leake as a decent contrarian play for tournaments, but he can be avoided in cash games.

Pitcher Rating: 54.5

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4400, DK: $4800)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.434
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.253 — OBP: 0.373

Analysis: There is a lot to like about Rizzo tonight. He is facing Mike Leake, who gave up a .352 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. He also gets to face him in the Great American Ballpark, which is one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. Rizzo has also had some decent success against Leake in the past, going 9-for-23 with three extra-base hits.

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Montero (FD: $3100, DK: $3100)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.240 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.286
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.131 — OBP: 0.348

Cincinnati

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Zack Cozart (FD: $2700, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.420 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.121 — OBP: 0.319

St. Louis at Milwaukee

St. Louis Milwaukee
stlouismlb Carlos Martinez milwaukeemlb Matt Garza
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL (-125) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.289 0.849 0.363 0.111 SP vs. Left 0.222 0.634 0.285 0.186
SP vs. Right 0.239 0.609 0.275 0.302 SP vs. Right 0.234 0.652 0.289 0.185
Batter Splits STL BvP STL vs R Batter Splits MIL BvP MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez (FD: $8200, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.49 — Strikeout Rate: 25.5% — Walk Rate: 9.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.54 — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% — Walk Rate: 9.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.2%

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.265 (Rank: 29)
Strikoute Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Martinez has pitched well this season. In his two starts, he has racked up 12 strikeouts, while only giving up three runs in 12 innings of work. He finished 2014 with an impressive strikeout rate of 21.8% and a ground ball rate of 51.2%. He definitely deserves consideration as a tournament play tonight against the Brewers, who are ranked 29th in wOBA against right handed-pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating: 68.4

Matt Garza (FD: $7300, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.86 — Strikeout Rate: 11.3% — Walk Rate: 11.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.88 — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.3%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 13)
Strikoute Rate: 17.0% (Rank: 3)

Analysis: There just isn’t a whole lot to like with Garza right now. His walk rate of 11.3% on the season is as high as his strikeout rate. He has a 4.86 xFIP and he draws one of the worst pitching matchups on the board. The Cardinals have struck out at the third-lowest rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. He’s an easy pitcher to avoid tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 50.3

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter (FD: $4400, DK: $4800)

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.522 — ISO: 0.375 — OBP: 0.467
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.104 — OBP: 0.381

Analysis: Carpenter has been on fire lately. He has hits in ten consecutive games and he has recorded multi-hit games eight times during that stretch. He has been aggressive at times and patient at times. Even at his elevated price point, he’s worth a look in cash games tonight against Matt Garza. Carpenter currently has a .522 wOBA and a .375 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Adams (FD: $3200, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.200 — OBP: 0.316
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.187 — OBP: 0.349

Milwaukee

Adam Lind (FD: $3100, DK: $3900)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.347
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.179 — OBP: 0.409

Analysis: The one bat that should be able to find some success tonight is Adam Lind. Carlos Martinez is very efficient against right-handed hitters, but he gave up a .363 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. Lind has always hit right-handed pitching well and he gets to face Martinez at home in the hitter-friendly Miller Park.

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Braun (FD: $3500, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.252 — ISO: 0.071 — OBP: 0.267
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.169 — OBP: 0.329

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

Kansas City Chicago White Sox
kansascitymlb Danny Duffy whitesoxmlb Jose Quintana
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC (-110) 8.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.136 0.386 0.185 0.18 SP vs. Left 0.264 0.685 0.302 0.219
SP vs. Right 0.227 0.67 0.299 0.188 SP vs. Right 0.25 0.653 0.29 0.213
Batter Splits KC BvP KC vs L Batter Splits CWS BvP CWS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy (FD: $7700, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.84 — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% — Walk Rate: 8.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.0%
2014: xFIP: 4.42 — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.8%

Chicago White Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.247 (Rank: 29)
Strikoute Rate: 28.5% (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Duffy is one of those pitchers that I rarely use in daily fantasy baseball. He has a mediocre strikeout rate, a mediocre walk rate, and a mediocre xFIP. He does have a strong defense behind him, but he’s not a pitcher with a ton of upside. On paper, his matchup against the White Sox looks appealing, but Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia can both ruin a pitcher’s outing with a single swing of their bats.

Pitcher Rating: 61.2

Jose Quintana (FD: $8000, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.82 — Strikeout Rate: 15.3% — Walk Rate: 5.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 29.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.37 — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% — Walk Rate: 6.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.7%

Kansas City Royals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.366 (Rank: 2)
Strikoute Rate: 11.0% (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Quintana is off to a rocky start this season. He has a 4.82 xFIP with a strikeout rate of only 15.3%. He’s in bad form and he draws arguably the worst pitching matchup on the board outside of the two pitchers in Coors Field. The Royals are ranked second in wOBA against left-handed pitching and they have struck out at the lowest rate of any team in the majors. I usually avoid pitchers against the Royals, unless my hands are tied. With all of the options in tonight’s large slate, Quintana can be avoided in all league formats.

Pitcher Rating: 53.2

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Lorenzo Cain (FD: $4000, DK: $4400)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.517 — ISO: 0.292 — OBP: 0.517
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.157 — OBP: 0.357

Analysis: Cain has always hit left-handed pitching well, but he is taking it to a new level this season. He currently has a .517 wOBA and a .292 ISO against southpaws. Jose Quintana was able to hold right-handed hitters in check last season, but he has given up a .445 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate this season.

Secondary Plays:

Alcides Escobar (FD: $2900, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.118 — OBP: 0.316
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.129 — OBP: 0.342

Chicago White Sox

Avisail Garcia (FD: $3200, DK: $4300)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.532 — ISO: 0.400 — OBP: 0.455
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.267 — OBP: 0.392

Analysis: Jose Abreu is the obvious play on the White Sox tonight, but Garcia offers similar power numbers against left-handed pitching at a much cheaper price point. Garcia had a .421 wOBA against southpaws last season and he has a .532 wOBA this season. He is an extra-base hit machine that provides great upside at his price point.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Abreu (FD: $4400, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.271 — ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.200
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.462 — ISO: 0.309 — OBP: 0.437

San Francisco at Colorado

San Francisco Colorado
sanfranciscomlb Chris Heston coloradomlb Eddie Butler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL (-115) 10.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right SP vs. Right 0.279 0.76 0.334 0.063
Batter Splits SF BvP SF vs R Batter Splits COL BvP COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Heston (FD: $5400, DK: $4900)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.32 — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% — Walk Rate: 6.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 62.1%
2014: xFIP: 4.01 — Strikeout Rate: 16.7% — Walk Rate: 12.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.1%

Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 6)
Strikoute Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 8)

Analysis: In the interest of saving my readers time, all you need to know about this pitching matchup is that the game is being played in Coors Field.

Pitcher Rating: 35.5

Eddie Butler (FD: $6600, DK: $4100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.19 — Strikeout Rate: 14.1% — Walk Rate: 15.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.1%
2014: xFIP: 5.23 — Strikeout Rate: 4.0% — Walk Rate: 9.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.6%

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 22)
Strikoute Rate: 17.8% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Coors Field.

Pitcher Rating: 29.0

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey (FD: $4400, DK: $5000)

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.358
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.164 — OBP: 0.366

Analysis: Fortunately, both FanDuel and DraftKings has priced Posey up for his matchup in Coors Field. If not, his ownership percentage would have been through the roof. Even at an elevated price point, he is still one of the top options at catcher tonight. Over the last three season, Posey has a .447 batting average in Coors with an OPS of 1.25. Load up on the Giants’ hitters tonight against Eddie Butler.

Secondary Plays:

Angel Pagan (FD: $3400, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.128 — OBP: 0.327
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.082 — OBP: 0.374

Nori Aoki (FD: $3600, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.113 — OBP: 0.414
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.076 — OBP: 0.323

Brandon Belt (FD: $3400, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.213 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.265
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.240 — OBP: 0.299

Joe Panik (FD: $2800, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.109 — OBP: 0.365
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.054 — OBP: 0.327

Colorado

Corey Dickerson (FD: $4900, DK: $5300)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.372 — OBP: 0.333
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.419 — ISO: 0.278 — OBP: 0.379

Analysis: Dickerson hit his 3rd home run in his last two games yesterday. He is not a sneaky play by any means, but that doesn’t meant that we can’t target him again tonight. Dickerson finished the 2014 season with a .419 wOBA against right-handed pitching and a .467 wOBA in Coors Field. The Rockies should put up plenty of runs tonight against Chris Heston. Get as many of the Colorado bats in your lineup as you can.

Secondary Plays:

Editor’s Note: Troy Tulowitzki is not in the Rockies starting lineup

Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $5100, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.300
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.207 — OBP: 0.402

Charlie Blackmon (FD: $4300, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.382
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.347

Justin Morneau (FD: $3900, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.287 — ISO: 0.106 — OBP: 0.286
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.196 — OBP: 0.389

Nolan Arenado (FD: $4700, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.375 — OBP: 0.409
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.311

Carlos Gonzalez (FD: $3500, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.242 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.226
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.220 — OBP: 0.309

Nick Hundley (FD: $3300, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.368
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.268

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious