MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 5th - Page Two

Oakland at Boston – 7:10 PM EST

Oakland Boston
oaklandmlb Scott Kazmir bostonmlb Wade Miley
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS (-114) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.259 0.67 0.299 0.21 SP vs. Left 0.254 0.705 0.314 0.184
SP vs. Right 0.223 0.648 0.289 0.218 SP vs. Right 0.261 0.747 0.329 0.202
Batter Splits OAK BvP OAK vs L Batter Splits BOS BvP BOS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Kazmir (FD: $8600, DK: $7500)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 248.2 — SIERA: 3.67 — K/9: 8.0 — BB/9: 2.7 — FB Rate: 36.1% — HR/FB: 8.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.0 — SIERA: 4.74 — K/9: 7.6 — BB/9: 5.4 — FB Rate: 26.7% — HR/FB: 15.0%

Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% (Rank: 6)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 4.00 (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Not that anyone will really care, but I will be at this game tonight with DraftKings and the King of Boston crew! Kazmir will be on the mound for the A’s. After a strong start to the season, he has struggled over the last month of play, posting a 4.74 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.6. Even though the Red Sox have struggled to score runs recently, they are still a very capable offense playing in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.

Pitcher Rating:63.9


Wade Miley (FD: $7000, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 255.2 — SIERA: 3.91 — K/9: 7.6 — BB/9: 3.3 — FB Rate: 30.3% — HR/FB: 11.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.2 — SIERA: 4.53 — K/9: 5.7 — BB/9: 2.6 — FB Rate: 38.1% — HR/FB: 5.0%

Oakland Athletics Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 17.0% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.28 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 3)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.88 (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Outside of Eduardo Rodriguez, Miley has been pitching as well as any starter in the Red Sox starting rotation. I suppose that may not be saying a whole lot though, as Miley only has a 4.53 SIERA and a K/9 of 5.7 over the last month of play. Miley is in a decent spot tonight at home though. While the A’s are a patient team at the plate, they are ranked 27th in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:59.1

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Ben Zobrist (FD: $3000, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF

2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 200 — wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.128 — wRC+: 147
Last 14 Days: PA: 31 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.185 — wRC+: 111

Analysis: Zobrist has always hit left-handed pitching well and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against Wade Miley, who has given up a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. During that same stretch, Zobrist has a .374 wOBA and a .128 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Secondary Plays:

Billy Burns (FD: $3400, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.111 — wRC+: 109

Billy Butler (FD: $2200, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 205 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.146 — wRC+: 138


Boston

Mike Napoli (FD: $3300, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B

2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 198 — wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 154
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.453 — ISO: 0.409 — wRC+: 194

Analysis: Napoli may be the hottest hitter in Boston, posting a .453 wOBA and a .409 ISO over the last 14 days. He has always hit left-handed pitching well and he’ll likely be batting fourth or fifth in the Red Sox lineup tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against Scott Kazmir, who has not pitched well in his last few starts.

Additional Plays:

Hanley Ramirez (FD: $3700, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF/SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 178 — wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.225 — wRC+: 158

Dustin Pedroia (FD: $3200, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 225 — wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 102

Xander Bogaerts (FD: $2600, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 222 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 112


San Diego at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST

San Diego Cincinnati
sandiegomlb Tyson Ross cincinnatimlb Jon Moscot
RIGHT Right
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN (-109) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.239 0.686 0.308 0.24 SP vs. Left 0.286 0.769 0.346 0.143
SP vs. Right 0.227 0.624 0.283 0.254 SP vs. Right 0.182 0.579 0.252 0.286
Batter Splits SD vs R Batter Splits CIN BvP CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyson Ross (FD: $9000, DK: $9400)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 260.1 — SIERA: 3.25 — K/9: 9.2 — BB/9: 3.6 — FB Rate: 21.0% — HR/FB: 10.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.0 — SIERA: 2.97 — K/9: 8.7 — BB/9: 3.3 — FB Rate: 14.3% — HR/FB: 0.0%

Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 14)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.70 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Ross is one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball. Since the start of 2014, he has posted a 3.25 SIERA with a K/9 of 9.2. He comes into tonight’s contest in good form, pitching very well over the last month with a 2.97 SIERA. He draws a decent matchup against the Reds, who are ranked 19th in wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. With so few aces to take the mound tonight, Ross should be on your radar in cash games and tournaments.

Pitcher Rating:76.0


Editor’s Note: Iglesias has been scratched tonight. Right-hander Jon Moscot will start and make his MLB debut.

Raisel Iglesias (FD: $6400, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 24.2 — SIERA: 3.77 — K/9: 9.1 — BB/9: 3.3 — FB Rate: 38.4% — HR/FB: 3.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 19.2 — SIERA: 3.68 — K/9: 9.6 — BB/9: 3.2 — FB Rate: 40.0% — HR/FB: 4.2%

San Diego Padres Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 20)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.82 (Rank: 11)

Editor’s Note: Iglesias has been scratched tonight. Right-hander Jon Moscot will start and make his MLB debut.

Analysis: Iglesias is coming off of his worst outing of the season, but he’s otherwise pitched pretty well. He has a 3.77 SIERA on the season with a K/9 of 9.1. He does struggle with his command at times, but his favorable matchup against the Padres more than makes up for it. The Padres are ranked 25th in wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:66.1

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Yonder Alonso (FD: $2800, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B

2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 315 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 111
Last 14 Days: PA: 8 — wOBA: 0.532 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 249

Editor’s Note: Iglesias has been scratched tonight. Right-hander Jon Moscot will start and make his MLB debut.

Analysis: The sample size is still small, but Raisel Iglesias has given up a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters (.346 wOBA) than he has to right-handed hitters (.252 wOBA) this season. Alonso makes a nice value play at first base tonight, as he should be hitting in the middle of the Padres’ lineup.

Secondary Plays:

Will Venable (FD: $2400, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 485 — wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.116 — wRC+: 91


Cincinnati

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto (FD: $3900, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 353 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 127


Pittsburgh at Atlanta – 7:35 PM EST

Pittsburgh Atlanta
pittsburghmlb Charlie Morton atlantamlb Williams Perez
RIGHT Right
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT (-116) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.241 0.662 0.301 0.192 SP vs. Left 0.36 0.949 0.405 0.185
SP vs. Right 0.248 0.706 0.317 0.18 SP vs. Right 0.25 0.614 0.293 0.333
Batter Splits PIT vs R Batter Splits ATL BvP ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton (FD: $6900, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 171.1 — SIERA: 3.65 — K/9: 6.9 — BB/9: 3.1 — FB Rate: 21.3% — HR/FB: 9.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 14.0 — SIERA: 1.74 — K/9: 3.2 — BB/9: 0.6 — FB Rate: 6.5% — HR/FB: 33.3%

Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.266 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 25)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.77 (Rank: 18)

Analysis: Morton has been sharp in his first two starts this season, posting a 1.74 SIERA with a K/9 of 3.2. Obviously, his SIERA and his K/9 will go up as the season progresses, but he has shown no signs of rust coming back from an injury. His strikeout potential is limited tonight against the Braves, who have the second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. He has a decent chance for a quality start, but again, the strikeout potential is limited.

Pitcher Rating:69.5


Williams Perez (FD: $5800, DK: $5500)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 20.1 — SIERA: 3.77 — K/9: 8.4 — BB/9: 4.4 — FB Rate: 19.3% — HR/FB: 9.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 20.1 — SIERA: 3.78 — K/9: 8.4 — BB/9: 4.4 — FB Rate: 19.3% — HR/FB: 9.1%

Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 29)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.79 (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Perez has taken advantage of his chance in the major leagues. In his first three starts, he has posted a 3.77 SIERA with a K/9 of 8.4. He’s still largely unproven at the major league level, but he draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pirates, whose offense has gone cold once again. Over the last 14 days, the Pirates are ranked 26th in wOBA and 29th in strikeout rate. Perez is worth a look in tournaments tonight at home.

Pitcher Rating:63.4

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Neil Walker (FD: $2700, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B

2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 626 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 130
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.291 — ISO: 0.122 — wRC+: 85

Analysis: The sample size is still very small, but Williams Perez has given up a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters than he has to right-handed hitters. Walker is a switch-hitter with decent power from both sides of the plate. He has a .357 wOBA and a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2014 season.

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen (FD: $4800, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 713 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.224 — wRC+: 164

Gregory Polanco (FD: $3000, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 392 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.129 — wRC+: 107


Atlanta

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Freddie Freeman (FD: $3900, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 658 — wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 150

Cameron Maybin (FD: $3000, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 295 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.105 — wRC+: 99


Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EST

Detroit Chicago White Sox
detroitmlb Kyle Ryan whitesoxmlb Jose Quintana
Left LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHW (-118) 8.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.333 0.908 0.391 0.188 SP vs. Left 0.242 0.65 0.287 0.227
SP vs. Right 0.235 0.61 0.281 0.026 SP vs. Right 0.265 0.693 0.306 0.208
Batter Splits DET BvP DET vs L Batter Splits CHW BvP CWS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Ryan (FD: $4600, DK: $4500)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 13.1 — SIERA: 4.00 — K/9: 2.7 — BB/9: 3.4 — FB Rate: 20.0% — HR/FB: 0.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 3.0 — SIERA: 8.47 — K/9: 0.0 — BB/9: 9.0 — FB Rate: 30.0% — HR/FB: 0.0%

Chicago White Sox Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.239 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 18)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.237 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.69 (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Ryan will be making his first start of the season and his second start of his career. He hasn’t pitched all that well in the minors this season, posting a 3.24 FIP with a low K/9 of 5.2. He’s a very risky play tonight and I’ll be avoiding him in both cash games and tournaments.

Pitcher Rating:38.7


Jose Quintana (FD: $7600, DK: $8100)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 260.2 — SIERA: 3.54 — K/9: 8.0 — BB/9: 2.5 — FB Rate: 32.7% — HR/FB: 5.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.1 — SIERA: 3.31 — K/9: 9.8 — BB/9: 3.5 — FB Rate: 25.3% — HR/FB: 4.8%

Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 23.8% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 23.8% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.86 (Rank: 8)

Analysis: Quintana has pitched well over the last month of play with a 3.31 SIERA and a K/9 of 9.8. When he is on, there are few opponents that can slow him down. While the Tigers are a very potent offense, they have the third-highest strikeout rate of any team against left-handed pitching this season. Quintana should get plenty of run support tonight and as crazy as it sounds, he’s one of the top pitching options on the board.

Pitcher Rating:75.2

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4700, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 223 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.243 — wRC+: 155

Ian Kinsler (FD: $3100, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 231 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.129 — wRC+: 97


Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu (FD: $3700, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B

2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 192 — wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.277 — wRC+: 182
Last 14 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.267 — wRC+: 117

Analysis: Abreu is one of the best hitters in baseball, especially when he’s facing a left-handed pitcher. Since the start of 2014, he has a .435 wOBA and a .277 ISO against southpaws. He draws a favorable matchup tonight at home against Kyle Ryan, who is not expected to pitch well in only his second career major league start.

Secondary Plays:

Avisail Garcia (FD: $2500, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 79 — wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 166

Alexei Ramirez (FD: $2300, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 192 — wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 90


Milwaukee at Minnesota – 8:10 PM EST

Milwaukee Minnesota
milwaukeemlb Kyle Lohse minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN (-126) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.24 0.714 0.314 0.169 SP vs. Left 0.255 0.681 0.305 0.095
SP vs. Right 0.247 0.694 0.305 0.186 SP vs. Right 0.248 0.675 0.301 0.181
Batter Splits MIL BvP MIL vs R Batter Splits MIN BvP MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Lohse (FD: $6000, DK: $5800)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 260.2 — SIERA: 4.03 — K/9: 6.6 — BB/9: 2.1 — FB Rate: 40.4% — HR/FB: 10.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.2 — SIERA: 3.53 — K/9: 9.1 — BB/9: 2.3 — FB Rate: 40.0% — HR/FB: 11.8%

Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 26)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 9)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.77 (Rank: 17)

Analysis: After a shaky start to the season, Lohse has turned it around. Over the last month, he has a .3.53 SIERA with an impressive K/9 of 9.1. He’s in much better form that most people think and he draws a very favorable matchup tonight against the Twins, who are ranked 26th in wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Lohse is a very sneaky play in both tournaments and as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating:59.9


Kyle Gibson (FD: $6500, DK: $6200)

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 241.1 — SIERA: 4.33 — K/9: 5.1 — BB/9: 2.9 — FB Rate: 26.7% — HR/FB: 8.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.2 — SIERA: 4.09 — K/9: 5.7 — BB/9: 2.3 — FB Rate: 29.2% — HR/FB: 10.7%

Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.261 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 23.7% (Rank: 26)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.78 (Rank: 16)

Analysis: Gibson is an easy pitcher to avoid in daily fantasy baseball. While he holds both left and right-handed hitters in check, he has a very low strikeout rate. He averages just over five strikeouts per nine innings, which really limits his upside. Even in a favorable matchup against the Brewers, I’ll be avoiding Gibson tonight.

Pitcher Rating:48.8

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Adam Lind (FD: $2500, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B

2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 443 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.201 — wRC+: 156
Last 14 Days: PA: 39 — wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.105 — wRC+: 75

Analysis: Lind has been swinging a cold bat recently, but his price has come way down, which gives us a nice opportunity to buy low on the Brewers’ first baseman. Lind has been terrific against right-handed pitching, posting a .400 wOBA and a .201 ISO since the start of 2014. He can be avoided on DraftKings ($4,300), but he offers good value on FanDuel ($2,500).

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Gomez (FD: $3600, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 621 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 130


Minnesota

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Brian Dozier (FD: $4200, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 643 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.178 — wRC+: 116


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious