MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 15 - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-05-15 17:17:46

Detroit at St. Louis – 8:15 PM EST

Detroit					St. Louis
			Shane Greene					Carlos Martinez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-130)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.337	0.896	0.387	0.135	SP vs. Left	0.239	0.853	0.367	0.192
SP vs. Right	0.136	0.415	0.192	0.155	SP vs. Right	0.262	0.687	0.309	0.278
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Shane Greene (FD: $7100, DK: $5400)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.33 — K Rate: 14.4% — K/9: 5.14 — BB Rate: 6.6% — GB Rate: 50.8%
2014: SIERA: 3.41 — K Rate: 23.5% — K/9: 9.27 — BB Rate: 8.4% — GB Rate: 50.2%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 18.1% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Greene has not had the same success that he did last season. He currently has a 4.33 SIERA with a low K/9 of 5.1. His numbers are trending in the wrong direction and a matchup against the Cardinals isn’t likely going to help. The Cardinals are ranked fifth in wOBA (.327) against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:51.2

Carlos Martinez (FD: $7800, DK: $6200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.01 — K Rate: 23.3% — K/9: 9 — BB Rate: 12.0% — GB Rate: 49.0%
2014: SIERA: 3.45 — K Rate: 21.8% — K/9: 8.46 — BB Rate: 9.3% — GB Rate: 51.2%

Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Martinez has a high strikeout rate, but he’s also shown to have a boom or bust nature to his production. He struggles with his command at times, walking 12% of the batters that he has faced this season. While his matchup against the Tigers isn’t ideal, at least he gets to face them at home under National League rules. Martinez is an intriguing tournament play tonight, but he can be avoided in cash games.

Pitcher Rating:67.9

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Anthony Gose (FD: $3100, DK: $3900)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.378
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.074 — OBP: 0.329

Analysis: The big right-handed bats in the Tigers’ lineup are also in play, but Carlos Martinez gives up a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters than he does to right-handed hitters. Gose has been a nice surprise for the Tigers early on this season, posting a .377 wOBA against right-handed pitching. As I’ve mentioned plenty of times in the past, I love targeting cheap speed at the top of the order.

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4500, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.227 — OBP: 0.412
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.374

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter (FD: $4100, DK: $4500)

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.467 — ISO: 0.351 — OBP: 0.425
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.104 — OBP: 0.381

Analysis: Carpenter has crushed right-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .467 wOBA and a .351 ISO. He has always had a high OBP, but he is starting to hit for power as well. His price is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a favorable matchup Shane Greene, who has given up a .387 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season.

Secondary Plays:

Kolten Wong (FD: $3200, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.198 — OBP: 0.371
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.137 — OBP: 0.285

Matt Adams (FD: $2300, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.165 — OBP: 0.321
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.187 — OBP: 0.349

Chicago White Sox at Oakland – 10:05 PM EST

Chicago White Sox					Oakland
			Carlos Rodon					Jesse Hahn
			Left					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK (-118)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.313	0.769	0.343	0.278	SP vs. Left	0.329	0.783	0.343	0.127
SP vs. Right	0.25	0.691	0.316	0.184	SP vs. Right	0.193	0.562	0.251	0.164
Batter Splits	CWS BvP		CWS vs R		Batter Splits			OAK vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Rodon (FD: $5800, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.58 — K Rate: 21.4% — K/9: 8.76 — BB Rate: 14.3% — GB Rate: 41.2%

Oakland Athletics vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.247 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 4)

Analysis: Rodon will be making his second career start tonight against the A’s. Rodon has shown an incredible strikeout rate in the minors, posting a K/9 over 11.0 in each of the last two seasons. He struck out eight batters in his major league debut, although he gave up four hits, four walks, and two earned runs. He’s an appealing tournament option given his strikeout potential, but he’s obviously a very risky cash game play at this point.

Pitcher Rating:55.0

Jesse Hahn (FD: $6900, DK: $5500)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.96 — K Rate: 14.3% — K/9: 5.57 — BB Rate: 5.0% — GB Rate: 50.0%
2014: SIERA: 3.73 — K Rate: 22.9% — K/9: 8.59 — BB Rate: 10.5% — GB Rate: 50.3%

Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 8)

Analysis: Hahn’s 3.96 SIERA is fine, but his low strikeout rate takes him out of consideration. He has a low K/9 of 5.6 with a 14.3% strikeout rate this season. There’s not enough upside for me to target Hahn in cash games or tournaments, especially in a difficult matchup against a very capable White Sox offense.

Pitcher Rating:48.0

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Jose Abreu (FD: $3500, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.236 — OBP: 0.365
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.364

Adam LaRoche (FD: $2800, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.145 — OBP: 0.388
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.390

Adam Eaton (FD: $2600, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 — ISO: 0.069 — OBP: 0.313
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.119 — OBP: 0.358

Oakland

Marcus Semien (FD: $3500, DK: $4300)

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.481
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.153 — OBP: 0.311

Analysis: As mentioned above, Carlos Rodon is making his second major league start tonight. Pitchers often struggle in their first few starts and that could provide an opening for the A’s right-handed hitters tonight. Semien has been terrific in his short time with the A’s, posting a .399 wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Secondary Plays:

Billy Butler (FD: $2400, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.150 — OBP: 0.440
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.139 — OBP: 0.387

Brett Lawrie (FD: $2200, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.146 — ISO: 0.037 — OBP: 0.179
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.263 — ISO: 0.164 — OBP: 0.234

Washington at San Diego – 10:10 PM EST

Washington					San Diego
			Jordan Zimmermann					Odrisamer Despaigne
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WSN (-122)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.351	0.853	0.379	0.136	SP vs. Left	0.171	0.471	0.216	0.068
SP vs. Right	0.227	0.528	0.239	0.141	SP vs. Right	0.254	0.882	0.377	0.123
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R		Batter Splits	SD BvP		SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Zimmermann (FD: $8800, DK: $9200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.51 — K Rate: 13.9% — K/9: 5.31 — BB Rate: 5.2% — GB Rate: 39.0%
2014: SIERA: 3.15 — K Rate: 22.8% — K/9: 8.20 — BB Rate: 3.6% — GB Rate: 40.1%

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 18)

Analysis: This is a Zimmermann that we are not used to seeing. His SIERA is way up, his walk rate is up, and his strikeouts are way down this season. His velocity is down this season, especially on his two-seam fastball. His swinging strike rate has also dipped to it’s lowest point since 2010. It’s tempting to target him in Petco Park, but there is no reason to at his price point. If he was priced around $7,000, I’d maybe take the bait.

Pitcher Rating:64.5

Odrisamer Despaigne (FD: $5400, DK: $5800)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.75 — K Rate: 10.1% — K/9: 3.76 — BB Rate: 6.4% — GB Rate: 49.4%
2014: SIERA: 4.14 — K Rate: 16.1% — K/9: 6.07 — BB Rate: 7.9% — GB Rate: 52.1%

Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 20)

Analysis: Despaigne doesn’t fit the mold of the typical pitcher in daily fantasy baseball. He has a low strikeout rate of only 10.1% and he has only averaged 3.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He produces a solid ground-ball rate, but that’s really all he has going for him at the moment. He can safely be avoided tonight against the Nationals, who have been tearing the cover off the ball recently.

Pitcher Rating:48.5

Batter Grind Down

Washington

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Bryce Harper (FD: $5600, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.458 — ISO: 0.381 — OBP: 0.427
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.144 — OBP: 0.348

Denard Span (FD: $3600, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.466 — ISO: 0.302 — OBP: 0.424
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.362

San Diego

Cory Spangenberg (FD: $2600, DK: $2800)

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.114 — OBP: 0.354
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.213 — OBP: 0.306

Analysis: Spangenberg has been a regular feature in the Grind Down and so far, he hasn’t let us down. He hit two home runs in last night’s win over Doug Fister and the Nationals. He draws another favorable matchup tonight against Jordan Zimmermann, who has given up a .379 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. The best part is that Spangenberg is still priced under $3,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Yangervis Solarte (FD: $2200, DK: $2700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.095 — OBP: 0.334

Boston at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST

Boston					Seattle
			Clay Buchholz					J.A. Happ
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-111)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.659	0.290	0.250	SP vs. Left	0.231	0.619	0.276	0.333
SP vs. Right	0.358	0.942	0.412	0.247	SP vs. Right	0.252	0.687	0.298	0.155
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Clay Buchholz (FD: $7900, DK: $6800)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.27 — K Rate: 24.9% — K/9: 10.27 — BB Rate: 7.5% — GB Rate: 50.9%
2014: SIERA: 4.02 — K Rate: 17.9% — K/9: 6.97 — BB Rate: 7.3% — GB Rate: 46.6%

Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 24)

Analysis: Buchholz’s indicators look a lot better than his ERA does. He currently owns a 3.27 SIERA with a K/9 of 10.3. Basically, if any other name was attached to those numbers, he would be considered an elite play tonight against the Mariners. Buchholz just has that uncertainty about him that limits his appeal to strictly GPPs. Everything lines up for a strong outing from him tonight, but I won’t be touching him in cash games.

Pitcher Rating:65.3

J.A. Happ (FD: $7300, DK: $7300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.58 — K Rate: 20.3% — K/9: 7.51 — BB Rate: 5.1% — GB Rate: 44.0%
2014: SIERA: 3.94 — K Rate: 19.8% — K/9: 7.58 — BB Rate: 7.6% — GB Rate: 40.6%

Boston Red Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Happ is off to a strong start this season, posting a 3.58 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.5. He has cut down on his walks this season and he’s actually produced a higher ground-ball rate. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Red Sox, who are ranked 26th in wOBA against left-handed pitching. There isn’t a lot to dislike here, but I find myself leaning toward other options tonight at pitcher.

Pitcher Rating:62.5

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Mike Napoli (FD: $2500, DK: $3700)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.273 — OBP: 0.433
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.173 — OBP: 0.450

Analysis: The common thought in daily fantasy baseball is that we have to pay up at first base. While that’s often true, it’s not a hard-fast rule, as there are often great value plays at the position. Napoli offers great value tonight against J.A. Happ, who has given up a .322 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of 2014.

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez (FD: $3700, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF/SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.591 — ISO: 0.571 — OBP: 0.519
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.393

Dustin Pedroia (FD: $3000, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.292 — OBP: 0.367
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.325

Seattle

Nelson Cruz (FD: $4900, DK: $5200)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.297 — OBP: 0.330
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.310

Analysis: Cruz is typically targeted when he’s facing a left-handed pitcher, but he’s no slouch against right-handed pitching. He has a .397 wOBA and a .297 ISO against righties this season. He has a ton of upside and he’s actually had a high floor as well. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Clay Buchholz, who has given up a .412 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Secondary Plays:

Brad Miller (FD: $2600, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.147 — OBP: 0.329
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.147 — OBP: 0.307

Colorado at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

Colorado					LA Dodgers
			Eddie Butler					Clayton Kershaw
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-284)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.317	0.946	0.409	0.137	SP vs. Left	0.250	0.755	0.327	0.324
SP vs. Right	0.237	0.671	0.309	0.132	SP vs. Right	0.262	0.727	0.318	0.298
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L		Batter Splits	LA BvP		LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Eddie Butler (FD: $5700, DK: $4500)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 5.37 — K Rate: 13.5% — K/9: 5.46 — BB Rate: 13.5% — GB Rate: 52.5%
2014: SIERA: 5.65 — K Rate: 4.0% — K/9: 1.69 — BB Rate: 9.2% — GB Rate: 51.6%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.368 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 16)

Analysis: The Rockies are the largest underdogs that I can remember seeing so far this season. In fact, I don’t remember a -300 line all of last season either. Butler has a 5.37 SIERA and a sign on his back that says “Don’t play me in daily fantasy!”

Pitcher Rating:26.0

Clayton Kershaw (FD: $11000, DK: $11900)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 2.45 — K Rate: 30.3% — K/9: 11.37 — BB Rate: 6.0% — GB Rate: 53.5%
2014: SIERA: 2.09 — K Rate: 31.9% — K/9: 10.85 — BB Rate: 4.1% — GB Rate: 51.8%

Colorado Rockies vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 24)

Analysis: I will have 100% exposure to Clayton Kershaw tonight in cash games. I’ll just throw it out there. He’s so far ahead of the other pitching options tonight that I have no issues with 100% ownership. The Rockies have been awful recently and while they did end their losing streak last night, they’ll likely start a new one tonight. Kershaw has a 2.45 SIERA on the season with an elite K/9 of 11.4. I’d be surprised with anything short of 7+ innings, 10+ strikeouts, and a win tonight.

Pitcher Rating:99.6

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

NONE

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $4300, DK: $4600)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.500 — ISO: 0.358 — OBP: 0.454
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.236 — OBP: 0.362

Analysis: The Dodgers are one of the top offenses to target tonight, as they take on Eddie Butler at home. Butler gives up a high wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters and he doesn’t strike many batters out. Gonzalez is currently sporting a .500 wOBA and a .358 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and he’s priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Joc Pederson (FD: $4300, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.461 — ISO: 0.400 — OBP: 0.443
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.293 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.387

Alex Guerrero (FD: $3300, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.472 — ISO: 0.438 — OBP: 0.371
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.127 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.143

Andre Ethier (FD: $3100, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.413 — ISO: 0.281 — OBP: 0.410
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.132 — OBP: 0.325

Jimmy Rollins (FD: $2600, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.247 — ISO: 0.124 — OBP: 0.255
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.161 — OBP: 0.326

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