MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 15 - Page Two

Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM EST

Atlanta Miami
atlantamlb Julio Teheran miamimlb David Phelps
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA (-131) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.373 1.123 0.481 0.197 SP vs. Left 0.255 0.619 0.284 0.082
SP vs. Right 0.233 0.751 0.327 0.202 SP vs. Right 0.206 0.511 0.232 0.206
Batter Splits ATL BvP ATL vs R Batter Splits MIA BvP MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran (FD: $8200, DK: $8200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.35 — K Rate: 20.0% — K/9: 8.05 — BB Rate: 10.0% — GB Rate: 35.4%
2014: SIERA: 3.68 — K Rate: 21.0% — K/9: 7.57 — BB Rate: 5.8% — GB Rate: 34.8%

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Teheran has been a boom or bust fantasy option this season, which is strange considering the fact that he was a very consistent pitcher in 2014. Teheran has a 4.35 SIERA with a K/9 of 8.1. this season. He typically pitches much better at home than he does on the road though, which is a concern for his start tonight against the Marlins. Teheran isn’t necessarily a bad play tonight, but there are better options at his price point.

Pitcher Rating:58.8

David Phelps (FD: $6900, DK: $4900)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.81 — K Rate: 14.7% — K/9: 5.52 — BB Rate: 8.5% — GB Rate: 37.8%
2014: SIERA: 4.21 — K Rate: 18.5% — K/9: 7.33 — BB Rate: 9.3% — GB Rate: 41.2%

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 15.4% (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Phelps has held his opponents to two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts. He doesn’t have that high strikeout potential that we are looking for though. On the season, he has a K/9 with a strikeout rate of 14.7%. His matchup against the Braves doesn’t help his cause either, as Atlanta has struck out at the lowest rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. As they say (who are they anyway? I want to meet these people), you get what you pay for.

Pitcher Rating:53.2

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman (FD: $3700, DK: $5400)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.413 — ISO: 0.236 — OBP: 0.394
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.397

Analysis: Freeman is a FanDuel-specific play. His $5,400 price tag on DraftKings puts him out of play, unless of course you are employing a Braves’ stack. His $3,700 price point on FanDuel is very playable though. Freeman has a .413 wOBA and a .236 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He should have the opportunity to drive in some runs as well. David Phelps walks a lot of batters and the Braves have the third-highest walk rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season.

Secondary Plays:

Andrelton Simmons (FD: $2800, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.200 — OBP: 0.348
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.267 — ISO: 0.077 — OBP: 0.283

Miami

Dee Gordon (FD: $3900, DK: $4800)

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.430 — ISO: 0.105 — OBP: 0.462
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.090 — OBP: 0.322

Analysis: Gordon has been racking up hits left and right this season. Well technically, he only racks up hits left-handed, but you get my point. He has a .430 wOBA with a .462 OBP against right-handed pitching. He draws a favorable matchup against Julio Teheran, who has given up a .481 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. Gordon also sees a boost in stolen base potential with a right-handed pitcher on the mound.

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4600, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.252 — OBP: 0.322
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.262 — OBP: 0.382

Christian Yelich (FD: $2900, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.277 — ISO: 0.085 — OBP: 0.294
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.116 — OBP: 0.358

Cleveland at Texas – 8:05 PM EST

Cleveland Texas
clevelandmlb Bruce Chen texasmlb Wandy Rodriguez
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX (-125) 9
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.429 1 0.435 0.143 SP vs. Left 0.222 0.763 0.327 0.105
SP vs. Right 0.5 1.319 0.557 0.133 SP vs. Right 0.167 0.517 0.241 0.26
Batter Splits CLE BvP CLE vs L Batter Splits TEX BvP TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Bruce Chen (FD: $5800, DK: $4000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.12 — K Rate: 13.6% — K/9: 6.75 — BB Rate: 4.6% — GB Rate: 44.4%
2014: SIERA: 4.42 — K Rate: 16.1% — K/9: 6.70 — BB Rate: 7.2% — GB Rate: 31.5%

Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 18)

Analysis: Chen will be making his second start of the season. He’s hoping for a much better outing this time around, as he gave up ten hits and six earned runs in only four innings of work against the Twins. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against a Rangers’ offense that is starting to heat up. He’s an easy pitcher to avoid tonight with so many other options on the board.

Pitcher Rating:32.9

Wandy Rodriguez (FD: $6400, DK: $5900)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.06 — K Rate: 22.9% — K/9: 8.49 — BB Rate: 10.4% — GB Rate: 41.9%
2014: SIERA: 4.29 — K Rate: 16.0% — K/9: 6.75 — BB Rate: 6.4% — GB Rate: 42.4%

Cleveland Indians vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Rodriguez has pitched well this season with a 4.06 SIERA and a K/9 of 8.5. I’m not buying in just yet though, as he is an aging pitcher that hasn’t had this high of a strikeout rate since 2008. He should get plenty of run support tonight with Bruce Chen pitching opposite him, but unfortunately he’s likely going to give up quite a few runs himself.

Pitcher Rating:48.6

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Carlos Santana (FD: $3500, DK: $5000)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.024 — OBP: 0.373
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.198 — OBP: 0.395

Analysis: Santana’s numbers against left-handed pitching are down this season, but he has a career .370 wOBA against southpaws. His price on DraftKings may be a bit high, but he’s still in play there as he is catcher-eligible. He draws a favorable matchup against Wandy Rodriguez, who has given up a .369 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of 2014.

Secondary Plays:

Michael Brantley (FD: $4200, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.459 — ISO: 0.265 — OBP: 0.450
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.141 — OBP: 0.378

Ryan Raburn (FD: $2300, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.472 — ISO: 0.268 — OBP: 0.444
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.264 — ISO: 0.138 — OBP: 0.263

Texas

Adrian Beltre (FD: $3100, DK: $5300)

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.214 — OBP: 0.326
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.191 — OBP: 0.442

Analysis: DraftKings has really inflated their pricing for tonight, which should make it a little more difficult. I mention that here because $5,300 for Beltre is a bit steep. He draws a favorable matchup at home against Bruce Chen though, who has given up a .430 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of 2014. Beltre makes a great cash game play on FanDuel and an intriguing tournament option on DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Prince Fielder (FD: $3300, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.184 — OBP: 0.321
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.169 — OBP: 0.281

Shin-Soo Choo (FD: $3300, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.156 — OBP: 0.342
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.114 — OBP: 0.323

NY Yankees at Kansas City – 8:10 PM EST

NY Yankees Kansas City
nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda kansascitymlb Chris Young
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY (-122) 7
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.197 0.516 0.226 0.338 SP vs. Left 0.1 0.256 0.126 0.156
SP vs. Right 0.278 0.749 0.322 0.266 SP vs. Right 0.085 0.31 0.144 0.28
Batter Splits NYY BvP NYY vs R Batter Splits KC BvP KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Pineda (FD: $9500, DK: $8800)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 2.17 — K Rate: 29.5% — K/9: 10.49 — BB Rate: 1.6% — GB Rate: 53.2%
2014: SIERA: 3.38 — K Rate: 20.3% — K/9: 6.96 — BB Rate: 2.4% — GB Rate: 39.1%

Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 16.2% (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Pineda has been terrific this season with a 2.17 SIERA and a K/9 of 10.5. Those numbers rival that of Clayton Kershaw. He’s obviously not anywhere near the caliber of a Kershaw, but it’s time to start believing in him. His true test will come tonight against the Royals, who have one of the best offenses in all of baseball. I love the upside that Pineda provides at his price point, but targeting pitchers against the Royals is something that I try to avoid whenever possible. I’d much rather pay up a bit more for Kershaw tonight.

Pitcher Rating:75.9

Chris Young (FD: $6300, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.75 — K Rate: 23.2% — K/9: 7.43 — BB Rate: 6.1% — GB Rate: 26.8%
2014: SIERA: 5.24 — K Rate: 15.7% — K/9: 5.89 — BB Rate: 8.7% — GB Rate: 22.3%

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 13)

Analysis: Young’s numbers have improved across the board this season. He has a 3.75 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.4 and a walk rate of 6.1%. The biggest red flag here is the fact that he only produces a ground-ball rate of 26.8%. Pitching in Kaufmann Stadium helps, but I don’t love targeting mediocre strikeout pitchers that have a high fly-ball rate. He’s not a recommended play tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked seventh in wOBA (.324) against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:39.6

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $4300, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.071 — OBP: 0.411
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.137 — OBP: 0.316

Brett Gardner (FD: $3800, DK: $5300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.127 — OBP: 0.388
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.325

Mark Teixeira (FD: $3900, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.444 — ISO: 0.453 — OBP: 0.360
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.199 — OBP: 0.305

Kansas City

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Eric Hosmer (FD: $4100, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.461 — ISO: 0.300 — OBP: 0.423
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.132 — OBP: 0.326

Alcides Escobar (FD: $2600, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.119 — OBP: 0.352
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.079 — OBP: 0.309

Toronto at Houston – 8:10 PM EST

Toronto Houston
torontomlb R.A. Dickey houstonmlb Dallas Keuchel
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU (-140) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.225 0.803 0.352 0.063 SP vs. Left 0.146 0.409 0.19 0.227
SP vs. Right 0.236 0.702 0.306 0.146 SP vs. Right 0.167 0.458 0.212 0.18
Batter Splits TOR BvP TOR vs L Batter Splits HOU BvP HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey (FD: $7600, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 5.50 — K Rate: 10.5% — K/9: 4 — BB Rate: 10.0% — GB Rate: 42.9%
2014: SIERA: 4.08 — K Rate: 18.9% — K/9: 7.22 — BB Rate: 8.1% — GB Rate: 42.0%

Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 24.8% (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Dickey was always a fun tournament play last season because he would have an 8+ strikeout outing every now and then. This season has been a different story. He is not striking anyone out, as his walk rate of 10% is nearly as high as his strikeout rate. He has a 5.50 SIERA and a bad matchup against the Astros in the home run-friendly Minute Maid Park. Dickey can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments tonight.

Pitcher Rating:40.9

Dallas Keuchel (FD: $9200, DK: $7700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.31 — K Rate: 19.1% — K/9: 6.45 — BB Rate: 7.7% — GB Rate: 63.8%
2014: SIERA: 3.11 — K Rate: 18.1% — K/9: 6.57 — BB Rate: 5.9% — GB Rate: 63.5%

Toronto Blue Jays vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.381 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 17.3% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Keuchel was knocked around a bit in his last start against the Angels, but other than that, he has been very sharp this season. He has a 3.31 SIERA with a K/9 of 6.5. He produces an elite ground-ball rate of 63.8% which helps him with two things. First, it limits the number of extra-base hits against him and second, it helps him turn a lot of double plays. He’s a better tournament play than cash game play tonight though, as the Blue Jays are ranked first in wOBA (.381) against left-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:72.2

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Jose Bautista (FD: $4500, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.261
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.461 — ISO: 0.284 — OBP: 0.449

Josh Donaldson (FD: $3800, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.478
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.353 — OBP: 0.380

Houston

Jose Altuve (FD: $4300, DK: $4500)

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.149 — OBP: 0.313
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.356

Analysis: Most players in DFS target Altuve exclusively against left-handed pitching, but I don’t mind targeting him against right-handed pitching. Not only is his price usually cheaper, but his stolen base potential goes up with a right-handed pitcher on the mound. Altuve has already stolen 13 bases this season and he’ll look to add to that total tonight against R.A. Dickey.

Secondary Plays:

George Springer (FD: $3900, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.164 — OBP: 0.309
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.251 — OBP: 0.317

Luis Valbuena (FD: $3000, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.256 — OBP: 0.308
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.347

Jake Marisnick (FD: $2600, DK: $3000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.430 — ISO: 0.175 — OBP: 0.438
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.248 — ISO: 0.087 — OBP: 0.254

Tampa Bay at Minnesota – 8:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay Minnesota
tampabaymlb Jake Odorizzi minnesotamlb Phil Hughes
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN (-107) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.235 0.597 0.258 0.25 SP vs. Left 0.291 0.796 0.343 0.142
SP vs. Right 0.151 0.499 0.226 0.163 SP vs. Right 0.32 0.951 0.402 0.211
Batter Splits TB BvP TB vs R Batter Splits MIN BvP MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Odorizzi (FD: $8700, DK: $7900)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.56 — K Rate: 21.2% — K/9: 7.42 — BB Rate: 4.4% — GB Rate: 39.3%
2014: SIERA: 3.66 — K Rate: 24.2% — K/9: 9.32 — BB Rate: 8.2% — GB Rate: 29.9%

Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Odorizzi has pitched well this season with a 3.56 SIERA and a K/9 of 7.4. He’s always on my radar in daily fantasy baseball because he has a terrific strikeout rate. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Twins, who are ranked 25th in wOBA and 28th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The only concern here is that Odorizzi has been a much different pitcher on the road than he has been at home. Given the fact that this game will be played in Minnesota, he makes a better tournament play than cash game play.

Pitcher Rating:71.1

Phil Hughes (FD: $7900, DK: $7400)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.95 — K Rate: 16.9% — K/9: 6.55 — BB Rate: 2.1% — GB Rate: 33.8%
2014: SIERA: 3.17 — K Rate: 21.8% — K/9: 7.98 — BB Rate: 1.9% — GB Rate: 36.5%

Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Hughes hasn’t been as sharp as he was last season, but he still has a 3.95 SIERA and a K/9 of 6.6. His 5.11 ERA would tell you another story, but I actually like him quite a bit tonight. Hughes draws a favorable matchup against the Rays, who are ranked 23rd in wOBA and 23rd in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Hughes is cheap and he’s a small favorite in a game that features a low total of 7.5 runs.

Pitcher Rating:68.0

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Steven Souza (FD: $3300, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.146 — OBP: 0.319
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.073 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.105

James Loney (FD: $2200, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.128 — OBP: 0.271
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.103 — OBP: 0.355

Minnesota

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Brian Dozier (FD: $3600, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.315
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.161 — OBP: 0.349

Joe Mauer (FD: $2900, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.281 — ISO: 0.060 — OBP: 0.329
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.127 — OBP: 0.367

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious