MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 19th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
| Milwaukee | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Yovani Gallardo | Vegas Moneyline | Jeff Locke | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIL (-195) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.630 | 0.284 | 17.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.190 | 0.527 | 0.238 | 9.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.747 | 0.331 | 16.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.754 | 0.333 | 18.80% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP  | MIL vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo has had a rough go of late. Over his last 3 starts he has given up a combined 12 earned runs while only striking out 9 batters. His 6.5 K/9 is the lowest strikeout rate of his career. Tonight he faces a Pirates offense that is ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching. The Brewers need a series sweep to have a chance at the playoffs, but I just don’t see that happening. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6600 FD, $13900 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jeff Locke – Locke has been a consistent staple in this Pirates pitching staff. On the season he owns a 3.66 ERA (3.78 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.2. He’s producing a solid 51% ground ball rate, but has struggled against RH hitters which does not bode well for his matchup against a RH heavy Brewers lineup. On a night with a full slate, you can find better options. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6800 FD, $13850 DD, $8200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Jonathan Lucroy – As mentioned above, Locke has given up a .333 wOBA to RH hitters this season. Lucroy is one of the more consistent fantasy options at catcher and owns a .359 wOBA against southpaws.
Additional Plays: Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen – McCutchen has been swinging a hot bat with 12 hits over his last 10 games. He also has a great history against Yovani Gallardo going 17/52 with 4 HR’s off of him in his career.
Additional Plays: Neil Walker, Josh Harrison
Boston at Baltimore
| Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Allen Webster | Vegas Moneyline | Kevin Gausman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-170) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.772 | 0.356 | 11.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.710 | 0.317 | 17.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.751 | 0.328 | 16.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.261 | 0.651 | 0.289 | 20.40% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Allen Webster – Webster is not a recommended fantasy option. His ERA (6.02) is higher than his K/9 (5.4). Webster is also walking more than 5 batters per 9 innings. Unless you like to target pitchers with bad command and little upside, avoid Webster in all leagues. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5500 FD, $8850 DD, $5100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Kevin Gausman – Gausman is a big favorite tonight, but that has more to do with Webster being on the mound than it does with Gausman getting the start. On the season he has a 3.57 ERA (3.98 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.0. While I’m not completely sold on Gausman, he does draw a favorable matchup against the Red Sox who are ranked 22nd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Gausman could make a decent contrarian play for tournaments tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6600 FD, $14050 DD, $7100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
David Ortiz – Ortiz got a couple nights off in the Pirates series as he was not able to DH. He should be well rested for tonight’s game against Kevin Gausman and the Orioles. Ortiz hits RH pitching well and gets a nice ballpark boost in Camden Yards.
Additional Plays: None
Baltimore
Steve Pearce – Over his last 5 games, Pearce has 9 hits including 4 home runs and 9 RBI’s. He’s one of those hitters that you want to target when he is locked in as he is very streaky at the plate. With Webster struggling with his command, Pearce should see plenty of RBI opportunities tonight.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones
Toronto at NY Yankees
| Toronto | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Mark Buehrle | Vegas Moneyline | Hiroki Kuroda | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | NYY (-140) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.728 | 0.323 | 14.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.697 | 0.308 | 14.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.293 | 0.762 | 0.336 | 12.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.652 | 0.289 | 20.00% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mark Buehrle – Buehrle owns a respectable 3.40 ERA on the season, but his xFIP is much higher at 4.15. He is only averaging 5.0 strikeouts per 9 innings and has to pitch in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium tonight. He should be avoided against the Yankees who are a decent hitting team against LH pitching this season. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6700 FD, $12100 DD, $5900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda is having another solid season. It’s amazing how consistent he has been over the last 6 years. In 2014, Kuroda has posted a 3.81 ERA (3.67 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.4. He keeps his walks (1.7 per 9) and HR’s down (0.8 per 9) and he’s facing a Blue Jays offense that is a much different ball club away from the Rogers Centre. While I do expect Kuroda to have another quality outing, he doesn’t quite provide the upside that I’m looking for at pitcher. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7300 FD, $13500 DD, $7900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Bautista – Kuroda has managed to keep RH and LH hitters in check this season as he has held them under a .310 wOBA. That said, Bautista has had his number in the past hitting 4 HR’s off of him in only 16 career at-bats.
Additional Plays: Jose Reyes
NY Yankees
Brett Gardner – Buehrle is a lefty, but the LH hitters on the Yankees have had some great success off of him. Brett Garnder, Stephen Drew, and Brian McCann have all hit Buehrle well in the past. Gardner is 12/29 with 5 XBH’s off of him.
Additional Plays: Brian McCann, Derek Jeter
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay
| Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Jose Quintana | Vegas Moneyline | Jeremy Hellickson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | TBR (-130) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.648 | 0.287 | 22.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.212 | 0.588 | 0.264 | 23.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.645 | 0.288 | 21.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.308 | 0.877 | 0.384 | 17.70% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jose Quintana – Quintana hit a rough patch in August, but has recovered nicely. Over his last 3 starts, he has only given up a combined 4 earned runs while striking out 23 batters. He is a much better pitcher than given credit for. On the season he is sporting a 3.30 ERA with a K/9 of 8.0. Those are very solid numbers, especially since he is pitching in the American League. He makes a great value play tonight against the Rays who are ranked 20th in wOBA vs. LH pitching. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7200 FD, $15800 DD, $7700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson has quietly put together a nice string of starts. In 11 starts this season, he has posted a 3.63 ERA with a K/9 of 8.1. While the White Sox are a very capable offense, they also strike out at a 22% clip against RH pitching. Hellickson can be targeted in tournaments, especially on FD where he is listed at only $5,500. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $5500 FD, $11200 DD, $7400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – Hellickson has had some serious reverse splits this season. He has given up a .383 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. Abreu also has some reverse splits as a hitter as most of his power has come against RH pitching this season.
Additional Plays: Adam Eaton
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – Longoria is the one Rays bat that is in play tonight. He has always hit LH pitching well and this season is no different. He’s batting .274 with a .355 wOBA against southpaws.
Additional Plays: None
Washington at Miami
| Washington | Miami | ||||||||
| Doug Fister | Vegas Moneyline | Tom Koehler | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-140) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.718 | 0.319 | 15.00% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.637 | 0.289 | 19.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.617 | 0.273 | 14.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.723 | 0.323 | 18.40% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Doug Fister – Fister doesn’t have the highest strikeout rate, but he’s been a terrific fantasy option this season. He has an impressive 2.55 ERA with a K/BB ratio close to 4:1. Tonight he is facing a strikeout happy Marlins offense that is missing their best hitter in Giancarlo Stanton. He also has a huge ballpark behind him which should let him be a little more aggressive tonight. Expect another quality outing from Fister. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8200 FD, $15500 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Tom Koehler – Koehler has pitched well at home this season. He owns a 2.68 ERA at Marlins Park while holding opponents to a .212 batting average. He’s typically a decent value play at home, but he draws a very tough matchup against a Nationals lineup that is tough 1-8. Koehler has more downside than upside in his matchup. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6800 FD, $13450 DD, $7100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Anthony Rendon – The splits don’t have a huge difference, but Koehler does give up a higher wOBA to RH hitters than he does to LH hitters. Rendon has been swinging a hot bat with 15 hits over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Denard Span, Jayson Werth
Miami
Christian Yelich – Yelich is the one Marlins bat that I will continue to target even with Stanton out of the lineup. Yelich offers a good source of both speed and power and he has been a multi-hit machine this season.
Additional Plays: None
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