MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 26th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Miami at Washington
| Miami | Washington | ||||||||
| Andrew Heaney | Vegas Moneyline | Taylor Hill | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-160) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | – | – | – | – | SP vs. Left | – | – | – | – |
| SP vs. Right | – | – | – | – | SP vs. Right | – | – | – | – |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP  | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Andrew Heaney – Heaney is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. While he struggled earlier in the season in his first big-league action, he will get a chance to right the ship as he heads into the offseason. At triple-A this season, he posted a 3.87 ERA with a K/9 of 9.8. He may be facing a weak Nationals lineup depending on how the morning game goes. If the Nats roll out a triple-A lineup, Heaney could make a solid tournament play. Rating = 5.5
- Taylor Hill – Hill made two appearances out of the bullpen this season, but will make his first career start tonight agianst the Marlins. In the minors he posted a 2.81 ERA this season, but had a very low K/9 of 5.8. He likely won’t pitch too deep into this game and can be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Christian Yelich – Yelich continues to play well. He’s really the complete package. He can hit for power, he has good speed, and he’s great with runners in scoring position. He has 11 hits over his last 10 games and remains a solid cash game play.
Additional Plays: Justin Bour
Washington
The fantasy options on the Nationals are going to depend on the lineup that they roll out tonight. Target the RH hitters in this lineup as Heaney has not fared well against batters from the right side of the plate (.392 wOBA).
Tampa Bay at Cleveland
| Tampa Bay | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Chris Archer | Vegas Moneyline | Corey Kluber | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-160) | LEFT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.229 | 0.635 | 0.288 | 21.1% | SP vs. Left | – | – | – | – |
| SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.687 | 0.308 | 20.9% | SP vs. Right | – | – | – | – |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Archer – Archer has had another solid season. He owns a 3.42 ERA with a K/9 of 8.0. The issue that he has tonight is that Corey Kluber is pitching opposite him. Archer will likely see limited to no run support which really hurts his chances of picking up the win. For that reason, he is a deep tournament play at best tonight against the Indians. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8300 FD, $14850 DD, $8800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Corey Kluber – Kluber has been absolutely dominant in his last two starts as he has struck out a combined 28 batters (that’s not a misprint). Since the All-Star Break, Kluber has posted a 1.88 ERA with a strikeout rate of 10.9 batters per nine innings. He will look to end his season on a high note as he faces a middle of the pack offense of the Rays at home.Rating = 9.5
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay / Cleveland
This game features the lowest run total on the board tonight. Both pitchers on the mound are elite and you can safely avoid both offenses in this one.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
| Atlanta | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Ervin Santana | Vegas Moneyline | Jerome Williams | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-117) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.763 | 0.332 | 19.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.287 | 0.778 | 0.345 | 17.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.674 | 0.301 | 25.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.701 | 0.312 | 15.70% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Ervin Santana – Santana is coming off of a poor four game stretch in which he gave up a combined 16 earned runs while failing to pitch more than six innings in any of those starts. While that’s a big discouraging, his price has come down on FanDuel and he has one of the better matchups on the board. The Phillies are ranked 28th in wOBA against right-hand pitching this season. Santana is a solid play across the board tonight. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $8400 FD, $16750 DD, $9300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jerome Williams – Williams is not a recommended fantasy option tonight. On the season he owns a 4.71 ERA with a K/9 of only 6.5. He doesn’t have the best command and is pitching in a HR-friendly Citizens Bank Park tonight. Even against the slumping Braves, he’s a poor fantasy play tonight. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $9200 DD, $6600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman – This is a great chance to buy low on Freeman in a favorable matchup against Jerome Williams who has given up a .345 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate this season. It doesn’t hurt that this game will be played in the home run friendly Citizens Bank Park.
Additional Plays: Jason Heyward
Philadelphia
The Phillies offense continues to struggle to score runs. Avoid them tonight against Ervin Santana.
Baltimore at Toronto
| Baltimore | Toronto | ||||||||
| Chris Tillman | Vegas Moneyline | Drew Hutchison | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-113) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.646 | 0.290 | 17.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.817 | 0.356 | 21.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.678 | 0.301 | 17.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.616 | 0.274 | 25.60% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Tillman – Tillman and the Orioles are still technically alive for the top seed in the American League. They should have their usual starters on the field tonight. Tillman has been arguably their most consistent pitcher this season with a 3.26 ERA and a K/9 of 6.5. That said, his peripheral stats don’t look nearly as good as his ERA and he draws one of the toughest matchups in baseball as he faces the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. As long as the Blue Jays don’t roll out at triple-A lineup, avoid Tillman tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7900 FD, $NA DD, $9100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Drew Hutchison – Hutchison is a high strikeout pitcher with a lot of upside. He is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per 9 innings and has really improved his numbers at home after a very rough start to the season. While the strikeout potential is there, he is a very risky option tonight against the Orioles who are ranked 6th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. The Orioles also lead the majors in HR’s. Use Hutchison as a contrarian GPP play, but avoid him in cash games. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $13000 DD, $7500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Nelson Cruz – Cruz didn’t get in on the HR-party last night in Yankee Stadium, but he has still been red hot. Over his last 10 games, he has 18 hits and 6 RBI’s. He draws a very favorable matchup against Drew Hutchison in the Rogers Centre.
Additional Plays: Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Steve Pearce
Toronto
Jose Bautista – Bautista got the day off yesterday, but should be back in the lineup tonight as the Blue Jays take on Chris Tillman and the Orioles. Bautista has had his best month of the season with a .471 wOBA and 6 home runs in the month of September. He also has a great track record against Tillman going 8/25 with two doubles and two home runs off of him in his career.
Additional Plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes
Minnesota at Detroit
| Minnesota | Detroit | ||||||||
| Anthony Swarzak | Vegas Moneyline | Rick Porcello | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-200) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.280 | 0.736 | 0.321 | 11.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.716 | 0.314 | 13.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0.763 | 0.333 | 14.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.675 | 0.298 | 16.70% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Anthony Swarzak – Swarzak may have the worst matchup on the board tonight. The Tigers are ranked 5th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and 3rd in wOBA at home. He’s an easy avoid tonight as the Tigers are still fighting for the American League Central Division crown. Rating = 2
Salaries: $5000 FD, $NA DD, $5400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Rick Porcello – Porcello has had a very nice season, but is a pitcher with limited upside in daily fantasy. On the season he owns a 3.31 ERA with a K/9 of 5.5. I’m not a huge fan of the matchup tonight as the Twins are a very patient team at the plate. The Twins are also the 11th best offensive team in baseball over the last 30 days. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7500 FD, $ DD, $7400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Kennys Vargas – The impressive rookie continues to be in play every time he faces a right-hand pitcher. On the season he has a .322 batting average and a .397 wOBA against righties. He’s also 3/3 with a HR off of Porcello this season.
Additional Plays: Joe Mauer, Danny Santana
Detroit
Victor Martinez – In the month of September, Martinez has a .377 batting average and a .461 wOBA. He was a triple shy of hitting for the cycle last night and draws a terrific matchup against Anthony Swarzak who is a below average major-league starter.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Torii Hunter