MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 13th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-13 23:51:19

Colorado at San Francisco

Pitcher Grind Down

Eddie Butler (FD: $6500, DK: $4700)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 6.75 / xFIP: 5.23 / SIERA: 5.65
K/9: 1.69 / K%: 0.04 / BB%: 0.092
SF vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 15 / K% Rank: 15

Analysis: In Butler’s first start of the season, he gave up two runs (both earned) over 5.2 innings. He struck out five batters, while walking four. Butler is not a top prospect of the Rockies by any means, but he does see a major ballpark boost moving from Coors Field to AT&T Park. Butler is installed as a small favorite in a game that features a total of 7.5 runs. His price point is appealing (especially on DraftKings), but he doesn’t offer a ton of upside and the Giants do hit right-handed pitching well. He’s a decent value play, but can safely be avoided on single pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Chris Heston (FD: $5000, DK: $4700)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.06 / xFIP: 4.01 / SIERA: 4.5
K/9: 6.75 / K%: 0.167 / BB%: 0.125
COL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 1 / K% Rank: 21

Analysis: Heston pitched well in his first game of the season, giving up two runs (both un-earned) in s innings of work. He struck out five batters, while only walking two. Like Eddie Butler, Heston is not a top prospect. He will likely be out of the rotation as soon as Matt Cain returns from his arm injury. While he is the small favorite in this game, there is little appeal in taking a right-handed pitcher against the Rockies right now, even outside of Coors Field. Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Carlos Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki can all change the game with a single swing of their bats. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Charlie Blackmon (FD: $3600, DK: $4000)

BA: 0.288 / wOBA: 0.339 / ISO: 0.152
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.35 / ISO: 0.158

Analysis: Blackmon had himself a very productive game on Sunday, going three-for-four with a double, a run, an RBI, a walk, and a stolen base. His price point is still very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’s coming off of a season in which he posted a .350 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Blackmon also has quite a bit of power for a leadoff man, posting a .158 ISO in 2014. Dollar for dollar, he is my top play in the Rockies’ lineup.

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Gonzalez (FD: $4600, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.22

San Francisco

Buster Posey (FD: $4300, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.311 / wOBA: 0.371 / ISO: 0.179
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.164

Analysis: Posey is the elite catching option in the early slate of games. He is often a popular target against left-handed pitching (and for good reason), but he often gets overlooked against right-handed pitchers, despite posting a .366 wOBA and a .164 ISO against righties last season. Posey would obviously be a much better play if this game was being played in Coors Field, but Posey still hits well at home (.330 wOBA in AT&T Park last season).

Secondary Plays:

Angel Pagan (FD: $3400, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.35 / ISO: 0.082

Nori Aoki (FD: $3200, DK: $3600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.297 / ISO: 0.076

Joe Panik (FD: $2300, DK: $3300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.296 / ISO: 0.054

NY Yankees at Baltimore

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Pineda (FD: $8100, DK: $7400)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 1.89 / xFIP: 3.37 / SIERA: 3.38
K/9: 6.96 / K%: 0.203 / BB%: 0.024
BAL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 6 / K% Rank: 18

Analysis: Pineda is coming off of a strong 2014 campaign that was only marred by the whole pine tar incidents. He also had a terrific Spring. Pineda looked sharp in his first start of the season, striking out six batters while only giving up two earned runs against a very tough Blue Jays’ lineup. He has a similarly tough outing tonight against the Orioles in Camden Yards. While the Orioles do strike out more than your average offense, they can put up runs quickly with all of the power in their lineup. Pineda should be avoided in lieu of the safer options at pitcher tonight. Rating = 6

Wei-Yin Chen (FD: $7600, DK: $6900)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.54 / xFIP: 3.75 / SIERA: 3.85
K/9: 6.59 / K%: 0.176 / BB%: 0.045
NYY vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 12 / K% Rank: 9

Analysis: Chen is one of those pitchers that always seems to fly under the radar. He finished 2014 with a 3.75 xFIP and a 6.6 K/9. He has great command, as he only walked 4.5% of the batters that he faced last season. Chen wasn’t great in his first start of the season though, giving up three runs in only 4.1 innings of work. The Yankees weren’t particularly good against left-handed pitching last season, but they’ve hit southpaws well so far in 2015. Chen lacks the upside needed to overcome the tough matchup against the Yankees in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Mark Teixeira (FD: $3500, DK: $4300)

BA: 0.216 / wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.182
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 / ISO: 0.138

Analysis: Teixeira has been a consistent source of fantasy production in his last four games, scoring at least 2.5 fantasy points (FD scoring) in each outing. Teixeira is a switch-hitter that has derived most of his power from the right side of the plate. In his career, he has a .391 wOBA against left-handed pitching from the right side of the plate. He also draws a favorable matchup against Wei-Yin Chen in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Secondary Plays:

Alex Rodriguez (FD: $3000, DK: $4000) vs. LH Pitching (2015) wOBA: 0.508 / ISO: 0.429

Baltimore

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Adam Jones (FD: $4400, DK: $5100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.31 / ISO: 0.165

Alejandro De Aza (FD: $3100, DK: $3000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.149

Tampa Bay at Toronto

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Odorizzi (FD: $8200, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.13 / xFIP: 3.9 / SIERA: 3.66
K/9: 9.32 / K%: 0.242 / BB%: 0.082
TOR vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 2 / K% Rank: 7

Analysis: Odorizzi looked great in his first start of the season, throwing 6.2 shutout innings while striking out seven batters. He only gave up two baserunners on the day against a tough Orioles’ lineup. Odorizzi is a high strikeout pitcher that is underpriced to start the season. In 2014, he averaged 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings with a strikeout rate of 24.2%. While I love the strikeout potential that he provides, there are two red flags tonight. The first is his matchup against the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. The second is his home/road splits from a season ago. He way a completely different pitcher away from Tropicana. Rating = 5

R.A. Dickey (FD: $8200, DK: $7700)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.71 / xFIP: 4.14 / SIERA: 4.08
K/9: 7.22 / K%: 0.189 / BB%: 0.081
TB vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 2

Analysis: Dickey went from being one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball to being fairly predictable toward the end of the season. He rarely has those dominant outings anymore, but he’s going to give you 5-7 strikeouts per outing while giving up a couple of runs. Dickey pitched pretty well in his first start of the season and Vegas has him installed as a -140 favorite tonight against the Rays. Dickey is priced a little high for my liking, but he has a decent chance of posting a quality outing with a win. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria (FD: $3800, DK: $4300)

BA: 0.253 / wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.151
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 / ISO: 0.143

Analysis: R.A. Dickey is one of the few pitchers that I like to use BvP for. He throws a knuckleball which is very tough for some hitters to pick up on. Longoria has had some success against Dickey in his career, going 8-for-30 with five extra base hits. Longoria also sees a ballpark boost going from Tropicana to the very hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

Secondary Plays:

Kevin Kiermaier (FD: $3100, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.218

Toronto

Edwin Encarnacion (FD: $4700, DK: $5300)

BA: 0.268 / wOBA: 0.389 / ISO: 0.279
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 / ISO: 0.291

Analysis: Even though Jake Odorizzi is a right-handed pitcher, he actually has some reverse splits in terms of handedness. In 2014, he gave up a .324 wOBA to right-handed hitters, while holding left-handed hitters to a .294 wOBA. Encarnacion mashes right-handed pitching. Last season, he had a .392 wOBA and a .291 ISO against righties.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Reyes (FD: $3800, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.324 / ISO: 0.115

Dalton Pompey (FD: $2900, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.431 / ISO: 0.320

Miami at Atlanta

Pitcher Grind Down

Mat Latos (FD: $7800, DK: $7800)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.25 / xFIP: 3.99 / SIERA: 4.08
K/9: 6.51 / K%: 0.176 / BB%: 0.062
ATL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 29 / K% Rank: 26

Analysis: Latos was absolutely shelled in his first start of the season, giving up seven earned runs before being pulled in the first inning. His velocity is down from where it was in 2013, which is why we saw such a dip in his strikeout numbers last season. Latos is a very risky fantasy option tonight, even in a favorable matchup against the Braves. Vegas has this game close to a pick ‘em, but I have a hard time rostering a pitcher after such a terrible outing. I have no qualms with fading Latos altogether tonight against the Braves. Rating = 5

Shelby Miller (FD: $8200, DK: $7100)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.74 / xFIP: 4.47 / SIERA: 4.6
K/9: 6.25 / K%: 0.166 / BB%: 0.096
MIA vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 15 / K% Rank: 28

Analysis: Miller is making his second start with the Braves. He started the season with a decent outing against the Marlins, but once again his pitch count was an issue. He only lasted five innings, as he averaged 19.5 pitches per inning. He struggled with his command last season, walking 9.6% of the total batters that he faced. The strikeout potential isn’t as high as it was in his rookie season. He has a decent chance to pick up the win tonight, but he is a little overpriced in his matchup against the Marlins. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Miami

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Christian Yelich (FD: $3600, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.116

Dee Gordon (FD: $3800, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.310 / ISO: 0.090

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman (FD: $3700, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.288 / wOBA: 0.374 / ISO: 0.173
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 / ISO: 0.188

Analysis: After Latos was blasted for seven runs in the first inning of his last start, a Braves stack looks awfully enticing tonight, especially considering how cheap most of their bats are. My favorite hitter on Atlanta tonight is Mr. Freeman. He always hits right-handed pitching well and 2014 was no exception. He finished the season with a .388 wOBA and a .188 ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s also sitting at a very playable price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Nick Markakis (FD: $3100, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.332 / ISO: 0.135

Eric Young Jr. (FD: $2500, DK: $3400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.285 / ISO: 0.08

Jace Peterson (FD: $2200, DK: $3100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.08 / ISO: 0

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake (FD: $7200, DK: $6700)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.7 / xFIP: 3.49 / SIERA: 3.51
K/9: 6.89 / K%: 0.182 / BB%: 0.055
CHC vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 25 / K% Rank: 29

Analysis: Leake had a mediocre outing in his first start of the season, giving up three runs to the Pirates, while striking out seven batters. He uncharacteristically walked six batters, which is surprising considering the fact that he only walked 5.5% of the batters that he faced in 2014. This is a very interesting spot for Leake, as his price is at a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He draws a pretty decent matchup against the Cubs, with the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field. Leake is a small underdog in this game, but I like him as an SP2 tonight. Rating = 6.5

Jon Lester (FD: $10100, DK: $9300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.46 / xFIP: 3.1 / SIERA: 3.09
K/9: 9.01 / K%: 0.249 / BB%: 0.054
HOU vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 5 / K% Rank: 27

Analysis: Lester had a bad outing in his first start of the season. He gave up three runs and was only able to last 4.1 innings against the Cardinals. He should bounce back nicely tonight against the Reds. Lester has an elite strikeout rate of 25% and he tends to keep his walks down. Lester posted an impressive 3.10 xFIP last season. I fully expect a strong outing from him tonight, the only question is whether or not he will be able to pay off his expensive salary. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Devin Mesoraco (FD: $3300, DK: $3900) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.398 / ISO: 0.215

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4700, DK: $4800)

BA: 0.286 / wOBA: 0.397 / ISO: 0.24
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.253

Analysis: Mike Leake’s biggest weakness is facing batters that hit from the left side of the plate. He gave up a .352 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Meanwhile, Rizzo posted an impressive .391 wOBA and a .253 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2014. He has a ton of power in his bat and a great matchup against Leake.

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Montero (FD: $3100, DK: $3200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.322 / ISO: 0.131

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3