MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 27th - Page Three
Philadelphia at St. Louis
| Philadelphia | St. Louis | ||||||||
 | Cole Hamels |  | John Lackey | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-144) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.211 | 0.636 | 0.291 | 0.195 | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.72 | 0.316 | 0.186 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.641 | 0.285 | 0.25 | SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.744 | 0.327 | 0.208 |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Cole Hamels (FD: $9300, DK: $9800)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.79 — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% — Walk Rate: 12.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 55.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.21 — Strikeout Rate: 23.9% — Walk Rate: 7.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 23.1% (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Hamels has struggled a bit with his command this season, but the rest of his numbers look pretty close to that of 2014. He has a 3.79 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 23.0%. He actually has a sneaky-favorable matchup tonight against the Cardinals. St. Louis is known as a team that works the count and doesn’t strike out, but they have actually struck out at the ninth-highest rate of any team against left-handed pitching. Run support is a concern for Hamels, but he could be an interesting play in tournaments.
Pitcher Rating:74.3
John Lackey (FD: $7400, DK: $8000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.72 — Strikeout Rate: 16.7% — Walk Rate: 5.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.48 — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% — Walk Rate: 5.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.246 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 21.4% (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Dollar for dollar, I have Lackey projected as the best “value” on the board tonight. His price is more than affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings, he has pitched pretty well this season, and he draws the best matchup on the schedule. The Phillies are ranked dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Lackey is a -144 favorite in a game that features a total of only 6.5 runs. He is in play as an SP1 on single-pitcher sites and an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating:78.8
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Howard (FD: $2600, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.214 — OBP: 0.283
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 — ISO: 0.132 — OBP: 0.305
St. Louis
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Matt Holliday (FD: $3400, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.591 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.769
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.263 — OBP: 0.440
Jhonny Peralta (FD: $2700, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.197 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.222
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.212 — OBP: 0.401
Colorado at Arizona
| Colorado | Arizona | ||||||||
 | Tyler Matzek |  | Chase Anderson | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ARI (-128) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.147 | 0.434 | 0.199 | 0.282 | SP vs. Left | 0.221 | 0.714 | 0.314 | 0.179 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.3 | 0.848 | 0.372 | 0.15 | SP vs. Right | 0.297 | 0.832 | 0.363 | 0.246 |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tyler Matzek (FD: $5500, DK: $5600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 6.00 — Strikeout Rate: 15.2% — Walk Rate: 15.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.92 — Strikeout Rate: 18.1% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 15.7% (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Matzek has struggled so far this season with a 6.00 xFIP and a walk rate that is just as high as his strikeout rate. He is a small underdog tonight against the Diamondbacks in a game that features a high total of 9.0 runs. The Diamondbacks are a very capable offense, especially at home. Matzek can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating:43.0
Chase Anderson (FD: $6300, DK: $5400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.26 — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% — Walk Rate: 5.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.67 — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% — Walk Rate: 8.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.9%
Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.345 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Anderson has pitched well this season. He has a 3.26 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 22.5%. Even though Chase Field is known as a hitter’s ballpark, Anderson pitched very well at home last season, holding his opponents to a .242 wOBA. The issue here isn’t Anderson, it’s his matchup against the Rockies, who are ranked 4th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:53.2
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $4300, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.283
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.207 — OBP: 0.402
Analysis: Chase Anderson is a reverse-splits pitcher that gave up a .363 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. While Tulowitzki is known for his power against left-handed pitching, he is no slouch against righties either. He finished the 2014 season with a .404 wOBA and a .207 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Secondary Plays:
Nolan Arenado (FD: $3700, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.296 — OBP: 0.379
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.311
Carlos Gonzalez (FD: $3200, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.281 — ISO: 0.193 — OBP: 0.246
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.220 — OBP: 0.309
Nick Hundley (FD: $2800, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.373
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.268
Arizona
Paul Goldschmidt (FD: $4500, DK: $5700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.518 — ISO: 0.643 — OBP: 0.286
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.470 — ISO: 0.205 — OBP: 0.526
Analysis: Goldschmidt at home? CHECK! Goldschmidt against a lefty not-named Kershaw or Bumgarner? CHECK! That’s basically all you need to know. Goldschmidt is one of the best in baseball when facing a southpaw. He finished 2014 with a .470 wOBA and he’s back at it again in 2015 with a .518 wOBA. He is an extra-base hits machine when he’s facing a left-handed pitcher.
Secondary Plays:
Mark Trumbo (FD: $2700, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.493 — ISO: 0.385 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.213 — OBP: 0.333
Chris Owings (FD: $2600, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.057 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.083
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.191 — OBP: 0.329
Houston at San Diego
| Houston | San Diego | ||||||||
 | Collin McHugh |  | James Shields | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SDP (-114) | 6 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | ||||||||
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | SD BvP | SD vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Collin McHugh (FD: $8500, DK: $8700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.61 — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% — Walk Rate: 5.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.11 — Strikeout Rate: 25.4% — Walk Rate: 6.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.1%
San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 15)
Analysis: From a game with the highest total on the board to the game with the lowest total on the board. Tonight’s Astros/Padres game should be a pitcher’s duel, as it features two terrific pitchers in Petco Park. McHugh has improved upon his impressive 2014 numbers and he sees a ballpark boost tonight in Petco. Vegas has this game set as a pick ‘em with the total at only 6.0 runs. Shields has the slightly better matchup of the two pitchers in this game, but McHugh is much cheaper.
Pitcher Rating:78.8
James Shields (FD: $8100, DK: $9600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.15 — Strikeout Rate: 27.9% — Walk Rate: 7.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.56 — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% — Walk Rate: 4.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.2%
Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 29)
Analysis: Most experts projected Shields to have a big season. He not only got to move to the National League, but he gets to have half of his starts in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. He hasn’t disappointed yet, as he has a 3.15 xFIP with an impressive strikeout rate of 27.9%. He draws the best strikeout matchup on the board, as the Astros have struck out at the 2nd-highest rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. I can’t talk you out of either pitcher in Petco tonight and I wouldn’t try even if I could.
Pitcher Rating:87.8
Batter Grind Down
Houston
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Luis Valbuena (FD: $3000, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.340 — OBP: 0.288
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.347
San Diego
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Justin Upton (FD: $3900, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.345 — OBP: 0.344
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.331
San Francisco at LA Dodgers
| San Francisco | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | Madison Bumgarner |  | Brett Anderson | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | ||||||||
| Batter Splits | SF BvP | SF vs L | Batter Splits | LA BvP | LA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tim Lincecum (FD: $6300, DK: $6900)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.61 — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% — Walk Rate: 10.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 60.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.81 — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% — Walk Rate: 9.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.375 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 11)
Analysis: Lincecum was scheduled to pitch yesterday, but his start was postponed so he will take the mound tonight against the Dodgers. Lincecum still has a decent strikeout rate, but he walks too many batters for my liking. Throw in a matchup against the Dodgers, who are ranked 1st in wOBA against right-handed pitching and Lincecum is an easy pitcher to avoid tonight.
Pitcher Rating:52.6
Brett Anderson (FD: $6000, DK: $6000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.53 — Strikeout Rate: 12.1% — Walk Rate: 3.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 58.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.55 — Strikeout Rate: 16.1% — Walk Rate: 7.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 61.0%
San Francisco Giants vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Dollar for dollar, Anderson is one of the best values at the pitcher position tonight. He struggles with consistency though, which is what we want from our starting pitchers. He draws a decent matchup against the Giants, who are ranked 21st in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. However, he doesn’t offer enough upside in terms of strikeouts, which really limits his fantasy appeal.
Pitcher Rating:60.9
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Buster Posey (FD: $3500, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.219 — ISO: 0.083 — OBP: 0.231
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.214 — OBP: 0.357
Analysis: Posey’s numbers against left-handed pitching are down this season, but it’s only a matter of time before he picks it up. He has a career .408 wOBA and a .243 ISO against southpaws. While Brett Anderson has been known as a reverse-splits pitcher throughout his career, I’ll take my chances with Posey at his discounted price.
Secondary Plays:
Angel Pagan (FD: $3000, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.450
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.278 — ISO: 0.101 — OBP: 0.286
LA Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $4600, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.582 — ISO: 0.519 — OBP: 0.475
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.236 — OBP: 0.362
Analysis: Madison Bumgarner was originally scheduled to pitch tonight, which is why Gonzalez is listed at $3,900 on DraftKings. Take advantage of the mis-pricing, as he would typically be priced around $5,000 in this matchup. He has an incredible .582 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and Lincecum is not a pitcher that we need to avoid taking hitters against.
Secondary Plays:
Jimmy Rollins (FD: $2800, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.303
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.161 — OBP: 0.326