MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 27th - Page Two
NY Mets at Miami
| NY Mets | Miami | ||||||||
 | Dillon Gee |  | Jarred Cosart | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-121) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.719 | 0.321 | 0.128 | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.684 | 0.312 | 0.153 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.711 | 0.315 | 0.204 | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.658 | 0.293 | 0.148 |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dillon Gee (FD: $6200, DK: $6400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.25 — Strikeout Rate: 16.4% — Walk Rate: 4.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 58.9%
2014: xFIP: 4.22 — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% — Walk Rate: 7.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.1%
Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 26)
Analysis: Gee has pitched pretty well this season, posting a 3.25 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 16.4%. He has cut down on his walks this season and he has produced an elite groundball rate of 58.9%. He is a serviceable fantasy option tonight against the Marlins, who are ranked 15th in wOBA against right-handed pitching. He sees a small strikeout boost, as the Marlins have struck out at the fifth-highest rate against right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating:61.8
Jarred Cosart (FD: $7200, DK: $6200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.65 — Strikeout Rate: 14.9% — Walk Rate: 6.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 59.6%
2014: xFIP: 4.15 — Strikeout Rate: 15.0% — Walk Rate: 9.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.2%
New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 5)
Analysis: Cosart may not have the highest strikeout rate in the majors, but he is a very good pitcher that often gets overlooked in daily fantasy baseball. He produces an elite groundball rate and he has a huge ballpark behind him when he pitches at home. He draws a favorable matchup against the Mets, who are currently ranked 21st in wOBA against right-handed pitching. The upside for Cosart may be limited, but he’s worth a look as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating:63.3
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda (FD: $3700, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.213 — OBP: 0.364
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.270 — OBP: 0.372
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4800, DK: $5300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.328 — OBP: 0.373
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.262 — OBP: 0.382
Analysis: Stanton is one of the few players that should always be on your radar, regardless of his opponent and regardless of the ballpark. He is about as matchup-proof as they come and he has a .416 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He draws a mediocre matchup against Dillon Gee, but Standon does have two home runs in only 11 career at-bats against him.
Secondary Plays:
Dee Gordon (FD: $3500, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.069 — OBP: 0.403
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.090 — OBP: 0.322
Washington at Atlanta
| Washington | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Doug Fister |  | Eric Stults | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-130) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.69 | 0.306 | 0.159 | SP vs. Left | 0.284 | 0.78 | 0.342 | 0.122 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.618 | 0.273 | 0.136 | SP vs. Right | 0.273 | 0.778 | 0.341 | 0.154 |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs L | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Doug Fister (FD: $8300, DK: $7600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.85 — Strikeout Rate: 9.8% — Walk Rate: 8.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.85 — Strikeout Rate: 14.8% — Walk Rate: 3.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.9%
Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Even in an attractive matchup against the Braves, Fister is not what I am looking for in a pitcher in DFS. He is one of the few pitchers that we have to pay a premium for that doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate. Fister struck out only 14.8% of the batters that he faced in 2014 and that number is all the way down to 9.8% this season. Fister could certainly be in line for the win tonight, but it takes a near perfect outing from him to reach value, which isn’t the case with pitchers that have a higher strikeout rate.
Pitcher Rating:60.8
Eric Stults (FD: $5800, DK: $5500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.85 — Strikeout Rate: 15.6% — Walk Rate: 4.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.0%
2014: xFIP: 4.17 — Strikeout Rate: 14.6% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.3%
Washington Nationals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.347 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Stults is coming off of his best start of the season. He only gave up one run to the Mets in six strong innings of work. He has posted mediocre numbers to start 2015 with a 3.85 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 15.6%. He faces a tough Nationals’ offense that is currently ranked fourth in wOBA against left-handed pitching. His price point is cheap, but that’s about all Stults has going for him tonight against Washington.
Pitcher Rating:49.1
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Jayson Werth (FD: $2800, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.375
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.165 — OBP: 0.437
Analysis: Werth is always in play when the Nationals are facing a left-handed pitcher. He finished the 2014 season with a .410 wOBA and a .165 ISO against southpaws and he currently has a .356 wOBA against lefties this season. He has one of the best wOBA matchups on the board, as Eric Stults gave up a .341 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season.
Secondary Plays:
Ian Desmond (FD: $3400, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.269 — ISO: 0.273 — OBP: 0.231
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.331
Wilson Ramos (FD: $2600, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.551 — ISO: 0.364 — OBP: 0.455
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.150 — OBP: 0.345
Atlanta
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Freddie Freeman (FD: $3100, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.262 — OBP: 0.283
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.397
A.J. Pierzynski (FD: $2600, DK: $3100)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.510 — ISO: 0.367 — OBP: 0.419
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.098 — OBP: 0.309
Seattle at Texas
| Seattle | Texas | ||||||||
 | Taijuan Walker |  | Yovani Gallardo | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TEX (-109) | 9 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.729 | 0.333 | 0.18 | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.637 | 0.287 | 0.189 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.179 | 0.501 | 0.229 | 0.267 | SP vs. Right | 0.274 | 0.743 | 0.328 | 0.171 |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Taijuan Walker (FD: $6500, DK: $6500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.46 — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% — Walk Rate: 14.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 31.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.88 — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% — Walk Rate: 11.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.6%
Texas Rangers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.261 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Walker has been one of the Mariners’ top prospects for years and he finally showed why in his last start. He struck out eight batters against the Astros, while only giving up one run in 5.1 innings of work. He is still a very risky fantasy option, but he offers great strikeout potential for a pitcher in his price range. He makes an intriguing tournament play tonight against the Rangers, who are currently ranked 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating:56.2
Yovani Gallardo (FD: $7100, DK: $7100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.02 — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% — Walk Rate: 5.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.64 — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% — Walk Rate: 6.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.8%
Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 21)
Analysis: Gallardo’s numbers have improved across the board this season. His xFIP and walk rate are both down, while he is striking batters out at a higher rate. Vegas doesn’t expect too much from him tonight though, as this game is basically set as a pick ‘em with the total set at 9.0 runs. Gallardo would need to be much cheaper to be on my radar tonight and since that’s not the case, he’s an easy avoid tonight against the Mariners.
Pitcher Rating:60.2
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Nelson Cruz (FD: $5000, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.304 — OBP: 0.310
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.310
Analysis: Cruz only has three hits in his last five games, but maybe a trip to his old stomping grounds can get him going again. He has already hit nine home runs this season and he draws a favorable matchup against Yovani Gallardo, who has some serious reverse-splits as a pitcher. Gallardo gave up a .328 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season.
Secondary Plays:
Robinson Cano (FD: $3800, DK: $5300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.404
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.166 — OBP: 0.398
Kyle Seager (FD: $3300, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.217 — OBP: 0.327
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.358
Texas
Adrian Beltre (FD: $3100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.239 — ISO: 0.149 — OBP: 0.220
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.160 — OBP: 0.369
Analysis: Beltre is in play tonight thanks to his depressed price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His numbers against right-handed pitching are down this season, but maybe a home-stand is what he needs to get going again. Beltre was terrific at Globe Life Park last year, posting a .414 wOBA and a .188 ISO.
Secondary Plays:
Prince Fielder (FD: $3400, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.438
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.078 — OBP: 0.398
Leonys Martin (FD: $3400, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.234 — ISO: 0.070 — OBP: 0.255
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.106 — OBP: 0.337
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
| Pittsburgh | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Vance Worley |  | Jason Hammel | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.25 | 0.666 | 0.297 | 0.158 | SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.691 | 0.305 | 0.199 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.691 | 0.304 | 0.186 | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.671 | 0.297 | 0.239 |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Vance Worley (FD: $7100, DK: $6200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.11 — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% — Walk Rate: 10.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.54 — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% — Walk Rate: 4.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.4%
Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 22.6% (Rank: 24)
Analysis: Worley has pitched about as well as anyone could have expected this season. He has a 4.11 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 18.8%. He is walking more batters than usual, but the sample size is still small. Worley sees a small strikeout boost tonight against the Cubs, but Chicago is a team that can put up runs quickly. Worley is a small underdog tonight and is not really on my radar for cash games or tournaments.
Pitcher Rating:56.5
Jason Hammel (FD: $7500, DK: $7100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.23 — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% — Walk Rate: 1.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.57 — Strikeout Rate: 22.1% — Walk Rate: 6.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Analysis: One of my favorite strategies in daily fantasy baseball is to target high strikeout pitchers at depressed price points. We have that opportunity tonight with Hammel, as he is priced well under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Hammel has posted a strikeout rate of at least 20% in each of his last two seasons and he has only walked one batter in his first three starts this season. Hammel also draws a decent matchup against the Pirates, who are surprisingly ranked 24th in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating:75.1
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Gregory Polanco (FD: $3200, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.286
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.123 — OBP: 0.342
Josh Harrison (FD: $2800, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.265 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.254
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.184 — OBP: 0.340
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4200, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.159 — OBP: 0.448
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.253 — OBP: 0.373
Analysis: I keep waiting for the wind to be blowing out in Wrigley, but that’s not going to happen tonight. Rizzo is still in play though, as he has been terrific against right-handed pitching. He currently has a .394 wOBA and a .159 ISO against righties. Tonight he draws a decent matchup against Vance Worley at home.
Secondary Plays:
Kris Bryant (FD: $3600, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.496 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.567
Miguel Montero (FD: $2700, DK: $3100)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.233 — ISO: 0.138 — OBP: 0.278
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.131 — OBP: 0.348
Detroit at Minnesota
| Detroit | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | David Price |  | Tommy Milone | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-157) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.657 | 0.292 | 0.236 | SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.729 | 0.323 | 0.099 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.644 | 0.283 | 0.28 | SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.771 | 0.339 | 0.156 |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
David Price (FD: $11000, DK: $10400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.97 — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 33.3%
2014: xFIP: 2.76 — Strikeout Rate: 26.9% — Walk Rate: 3.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.2%
Minnesota Twins vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.275 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 11)
Analysis: Raise your hand if you were one of the many that got burned (AGAIN) by Price against the Yankees. Ok good, at least I wasn’t the only one. The Yankees seem to have his number, but we can expect a strong bounce back effort from Price tonight. He is an elite pitcher with an elite strikeout rate and he is facing a Twins’ offense that is ranked 26th in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Price is a sizable favorite that deserves consideration as one of the top pitching options on the board.
Pitcher Rating:80.1
Tommy Milone (FD: $6300, DK: $5900)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.17 — Strikeout Rate: 13.9% — Walk Rate: 11.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 33.9%
2014: xFIP: 4.56 — Strikeout Rate: 14.5% — Walk Rate: 7.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.4%
Detroit Tigers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.340 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 21)
Analysis: Milone has the unfortunate task of facing the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have one of the best offenses in all of baseball and I expect them to be close to the top of the wOBA rankings against left-handed pitching when all is said and done. Milone has a low strikeout rate, an awful matchup, and he’s a large underdog. See what I’m getting at here?
Pitcher Rating:47.2
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4100, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.350
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.364
Analysis: Miggy, Miggy, Miggy, can’t you see? Sometimes your home runs mesmerize me. Cabrera is one of the top overall plays at any position tonight. He draws a fantastic matchup against Tommy Milone, who gave up a .339 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. Cabrera has always hit left-handed pitching well and he’s facing Milone in Target Field, which grades out as a top-ten park for right-handed hitters.
Secondary Plays:
Victor Martinez (FD: $3400, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.083 — OBP: 0.533
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.322 — OBP: 0.430
J.D. Martinez (FD: $3400, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.176 — OBP: 0.333
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.425 — ISO: 0.333 — OBP: 0.362
Yoenis Cespedes (FD: $3200, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.400 — OBP: 0.267
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.199 — OBP: 0.269
Ian Kinsler (FD: $3400, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.224 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.273
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.146 — OBP: 0.313
Minnesota
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Brian Dozier (FD: $2900, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.320
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.337