MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 6 - Page Two
Boston at Philadelphia
| Boston | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Clay Buchholz | Vegas Moneyline | Cole Hamels | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PHI (-119) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.793 | 0.351 | 17.10% | SP vs. Left | 0.211 | 0.636 | 0.291 | 19.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.696 | 0.308 | 18.90% | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.641 | 0.285 | 25.00% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP  | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Clay Buchholz (FD: $7300, DK: $6900)
Pitching Stats:
ERA: 5.34 / xFIP: 4.04 / SIERA: 4.02
K/9: 6.97 / K%: 0.179 / BB%: 0.073
PHI vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 26 / K% Rank: 17
Analysis: Buchholz is coming off of a very disappointing season. While he may have pitched better than his 5.34 ERA would suggest, he wasn’t the same pitcher that we saw in 2013. He has looked good in the Spring though and he has a great chance to get off to a good start here in 2015. He is facing a mediocre Phillies’ offense in an NL ballpark. If he can pitch around the left-handed bats in this Phillies’ lineup, he could make for a decent tournament option.
Cole Hamels (FD: $10000, DK: $9900)
Pitching Stats:
ERA: 2.46 / xFIP: 3.21 / SIERA: 3.29
K/9: 8.71 / K%: 0.239 / BB%: 0.071
BOS vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 21 / K% Rank: 23
Analysis: Hamels pitched well last season with a 2.46 ERA (3.21 xFIP) and a K/9 of 8.7. He’s getting a little older, but he still has plenty of upside in terms of strikeouts. He is facing a revamped Red Sox offense that added Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. The Red Sox are always capable of hanging a big number, regardless of who is in on the mound. At his price point, there are better options on opening day.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Hanley Ramirez (FD: $3900, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.156
Dustin Pedroia (FD: $3400, DK: $3700) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.322 / ISO: 0.151
Philadelphia
Chase Utley (FD: $3600, DK: $4100)
BA: 0.27 / wOBA: 0.325 / ISO: 0.138
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.144
Analysis: Utley is 36 years old, but he continues to be one of the most productive second basemen in the majors. He is a left-handed hitter that fares well against both left and right-handed pitching. He draws a favorable matchup on opening day, as Buchholz allowed left-handed hitters to hit for a .351 wOBA last season. Utley is a strong cash game play on Monday.
Secondary Plays:
Ben Revere (FD: $3000, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.29 / ISO: 0.05
Freddy Galvis (FD: $2500, DK: $3200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.26 / ISO: 0.147
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
| Chicago White Sox | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | Vegas Moneyline | Yordano Ventura | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | KCR (-130) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.662 | 0.292 | 24.00% | SP vs. Left | 0.229 | 0.642 | 0.288 | 19.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.631 | 0.279 | 22.10% | SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.704 | 0.316 | 21.80% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeff Samardzija (FD: $9700, DK: $9100)
Pitching Stats:
ERA: 2.99 / xFIP: 3.07 / SIERA: 3.06
K/9: 8.28 / K%: 0.23 / BB%: 0.049
KC vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 20 / K% Rank: 1
Analysis: Samardzija will make his first start with the White Sox on opening day. He did see a slight decrease in his strikeout rate last season, after being traded from the Cubs (NL) to the A’s (AL). He draws a tough matchup against the Royals, who struck out at a very low rate last season. The Royals are all about putting the ball in play and manufacturing runs. That doesn’t exactly bode well for the production of the pitchers that face them. Samardzija is not on my radar on opening day.
Yordano Ventura (FD: $8200, DK: $7600)
Pitching Stats:
ERA: 3.2 / xFIP: 3.74 / SIERA: 3.87
K/9: 7.82 / K%: 0.203 / BB%: 0.088
CWS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 13 / K% Rank: 27
Analysis: In daily fantasy sports, we love to look for value. It not only allows us to fill out the rest of our lineup with quality fantasy options, but it also gives us a better opportunity to meet value expectations. There may not be a better value play on opening day than Ventura. The White Sox have a pretty potent offense, but Ventura has a pitcher-friendly park and a great defense behind him. Ventura finished 2014 with a 3.20 ERA (3.74 xFIP) and a K/9 of 7.8. He offers great upside at his price point.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu (FD: $4500, DK: $4800)
BA: 0.317 / wOBA: 0.411 / ISO: 0.264
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 / ISO: 0.25
Analysis: Abreu was a monster last season and if this spring was any indication, he will be just as good in 2015. He finished last season with a .317 batting average, a .411 weight on-base average, and he hit 36 home runs. Ventura throws hard, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abreu get a hold of one on opening day.
Secondary Plays:
Adam Eaton (FD: $3100, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.344 / ISO: 0.119
Kansas City
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Alex Gordon (FD: $3500, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.345 / ISO: 0.154
Eric Hosmer (FD: $3700, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.321 / ISO: 0.132
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
| Baltimore | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Chris Tillman | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Archer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-129) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.670 | 0.299 | 17.10% | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.624 | 0.283 | 21.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.672 | 0.299 | 17.40% | SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.685 | 0.307 | 20.80% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Tillman (FD: $8300, DK: $7100)
Pitching Stats:
ERA: 3.34 / xFIP: 4.2 / SIERA: 4.26
K/9: 6.51 / K%: 0.172 / BB%: 0.076
TB vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 2
Analysis: Tillman was one of those pitchers that had a much lower ERA than his pitching would suggest last season. His ERA was nearly a full run lower than his xFIP and his SIERA. He does have the benefit of a potent offense at his back, but he’s not exactly a high-strikeout pitcher. Given his cheap price point, he’s certainly not the worst pitching option on opening day, but if you are looking for value, I’d recommend Yordano Ventura or Henderson Alvarez.
Chris Archer (FD: $8600, DK: $7600)
Pitching Stats:
ERA: 3.33 / xFIP: 3.7 / SIERA: 3.8
K/9: 8 / K%: 0.211 / BB%: 0.088
BAL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 6 / K% Rank: 18
Analysis: With Alex Cobb out until mid-April, Archer will draw the start on opening day. Archer is a quality right-handed pitcher that posted a 3.33 ERA and a K/9 of 8.0 last season. He’s a small favorite here and this game features a low run total of 7.0. While the Orioles don’t have Nelson Cruz in their lineup anymore, they still have an above average offense. If I had to choose between Archer and Tillman, I’d give the edge to Archer, but I’m not confident in either option.
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Manny Machado (FD: $3200, DK: $3900)
BA: 0.278 / wOBA: 0.332 / ISO: 0.153
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 / ISO: 0.165
Analysis: Machado is looking to bounce back after having an injury-plagued season in 2014. He will look to regain his 2013 form where he hit for a .283 average and drove in 71 runs. Machado actually hit better against right-handed pitching than he did against left-handed pitching last season and I have no qualms using him on opening day against Archer. When healthy, Macho is a doubles-machine and so far his knee has held up well in the spring.
Secondary Plays:
Adam Jones (FD: $4300, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.31 / ISO: 0.165
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria (FD: $3800, DK: $4300)
BA: 0.253 / wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.151
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 / ISO: 0.143
Analysis: I’ve got another BvP stat for all of you BvP lovers out there. In 33 at-bats against Tillman, Longoria has 13 hits, including 5 home runs and 2 doubles. Longoria is looking to bounce back after a subpar 2014 campaign. He should get off to a quick start against a pitcher that he has had great success off of in the past.
Secondary Plays:
John Jaso (FD: $3100, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.349 / ISO: 0.177
Asdrubal Cabrera (FD: $2800, DK: $3800) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.303 / ISO: 0.151
Kevin Kiermaier (FD: $2600, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.218
NY Mets at Washington
| NY Mets | Washington | ||||||||
| Bartolo Colon | Vegas Moneyline | Max Scherzer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-185) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.681 | 0.299 | 16.90% | SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.685 | 0.305 | 25.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.279 | 0.755 | 0.331 | 18.90% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.629 | 0.279 | 31.70% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bartolo Colon (FD: $7700, DK: $6800)
Pitching Stats:
ERA: 4.09 / xFIP: 3.68 / SIERA: 3.75
K/9: 6.72 / K%: 0.179 / BB%: 0.036
WAS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 21
Analysis: Colon had a mediocre season in 2014. The 41-year old pitcher isn’t getting younger and his velocity is only going to drop moving forward. He struggled on the road last season, posting a 4.44 ERA. His strikeout numbers also dipped significantly away from Citi Field. While his price tag is cheap, it’s hard to justify targeting him with all of the other elite pitching options taking the mound on Monday. He is listed as a huge underdog for a reason.
Max Scherzer (FD: $11000, DK: $11500)
Pitching Stats:
ERA: 3.15 / xFIP: 3.12 / SIERA: 2.98
K/9: 10.29 / K%: 0.279 / BB%: 0.07
NYM vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 11
Analysis: Scherzer is coming off of a terrific season, posting a 3.15 ERA (3.12 xFIP) with a K/9 of 10.3. I’m excited to see what he can do in the National League with a much better defense behind him. Scherzer is a high-strikeout pitcher that can pitch deep into games. While it is opening day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw over 100 pitches. He should rack up the strikeouts against an average Mets’ offense. He’s right behind Clayton Kershaw as the top pitching option on the board.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
None – Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball. There are better matchups to exploit.
Washington
Bryce Harper (FD: $4100, DK: $4200)
BA: 0.273 / wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.151
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.144
Analysis: Have you seen this guys’ forearms? Holy Popeye, Batman! What are they feeding him in the offseason? Harper had a somewhat disappointing season last year that was plagued by injuries. I’m expecting a huge bounce back effort from him this year. Colon throws primarily fastballs at this point in his career and if he hangs one, you know Harper is going to swing for the fences. I’m not a huge fan of calling shot, but I’m calling for a Bryce “FOUR-arms” Harper home run on opening day.
Secondary Plays:
Ian Desmond (FD: $4100, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.324 / ISO: 0.178
Ryan Zimmerman (FD: $3700, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.179
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Francisco Liriano | Vegas Moneyline | Johnny Cueto | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | CIN (-134) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.740 | 0.331 | 31.00% | SP vs. Left | 0.194 | 0.561 | 0.257 | 23.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.202 | 0.623 | 0.284 | 24.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.190 | 0.585 | 0.261 | 26.40% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Francisco Liriano (FD: $8500, DK: $8300)
Pitching Stats:
ERA: 3.38 / xFIP: 3.4 / SIERA: 3.61
K/9: 9.7 / K%: 0.253 / BB%: 0.117
CIN vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 27 / K% Rank: 17
Analysis: Liriano can look great at times and he can look awful at times. He finished the season with a 3.38 ERA (3.40 xFIP) and a K/9 of 9.7. He was very inconsistent though, which made him a tough player to target in daily fantasy. Liriano does offer upside in terms of strikeout potential, but he’s not a safe cash game play. I’ll label him as a tournament option, as the Pirates take on the Reds at the Great American Ballpark.
Johnny Cueto (FD: $10500, DK: $9600)
Pitching Stats:
ERA: 2.25 / xFIP: 3.21 / SIERA: 3.15
K/9: 8.94 / K%: 0.252 / BB%: 0.068
PIT vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 3 / K% Rank: 14
Analysis: When Cueto has his stuff, he’s as dominant as any pitcher in baseball (not named Clayton Kershaw, of course). He finished last season with a 2.25 ERA, although his xFIP and SIERA were almost a full run higher. Of all the aces on the mound on opening day, he has one of the tougher matchup. The Pirates were one of the best teams in baseball against right-handed pitching, ranking third in weighted on-base average. Cueto is in play, but he’s not a top five pitching option.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Andrew McCutchen (FD: $4900, DK: $5100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.415 / ISO: 0.225
Neil Walker (FD: $3600, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.364 / ISO: 0.222
Cincinnati
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Devin Mesoraco (FD: $3700, DK: $4200) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.398 / ISO: 0.215
Todd Frazier (FD: $3500, DK: $4400) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.151