MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 21st Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-21 17:17:54

Baltimore at LA Angels

Baltimore					LA Angels
Bud Norris		Vegas Moneyline			Matt Shoemaker		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-141)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.289	0.823	0.365	15.7%	SP vs. Left	0.286	0.791	0.348	22.2%
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.627	0.291	21.7%	SP vs. Right	0.250	0.689	0.300	24.6%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Bud Norris – I will shy away from using Norris tonight. He has an average ERA (3.96) and an average K/9 (6.1). His peripheral stats suggest that he’s pitching worse than his 3.96 ERA. His matchup against the Angels isn’t favorable too as they are ranked 8th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6600 FD, $11550 DD, $6300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker has a 4.38 ERA on the season, but his xFIP is a full run lower at 3.36. Shoemaker has an impressive K/9 of 8.6 and he is walking just over 2 batters per 9 innings. While the Orioles are solid as a team against RH pitching, Shoemaker is in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6900 FD, $12500 DD, $7000 DK, $102100 FF, $16800 SS, $12500 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Nick Markakis – Judging by the wOBA matchup, Markakis makes the most sense here. He has a .341 wOBA against RH pitching this season and a nice matchup against Shoemaker who has given up a .348 wOBA to LH batters.

Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – Calhoun continues to rake against RH pitching and if you’re not a believer by now, I’m not sure that you are ever going to be one. He has a .378 wOBA against righties this season and a favorable matchup against Norris who has given up a .365 wOBA to LH hitters since the start of 2013.

Additional Plays: Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout

NY Mets at Seattle

NY Mets					Seattle
Jonathon Niese		Vegas Moneyline			Roenis Elias		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		SEA (-114)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.236	0.627	0.285	18.8%	SP vs. Left	0.213	0.690	0.306	21.1%
SP vs. Right	0.278	0.724	0.326	16.5%	SP vs. Right	0.245	0.690	0.317	20.3%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jonathon Niese – Niese will come off of the DL to make his first start since the beginning of July and he has a perfect matchup to pick up right where he left off. The Mariners are ranked 29th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season and Niese will have quite a few lefty/lefty matchups to exploit. The only concern here is a potential pitch limit, but Niese’s ability to limit pitch counts and pitch deep into games makes him a solid #2 pitcher tonight. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7000 FD, $12600 DD, $7200 DK, $82100 FF, $19500 SS, $12600 FTD

• Roenis Elias – Elias has more upside than Niese tonight thanks to his higher K-rate and the fact that the Mets strike out at a 23% clip against LH pitching, but his recent form does have me concerned. He’s given up at least 5 earned runs in each of his last 3 outings and is facing a Mets’ offense that is actually pretty decent against LH pitching (.312 wOBA). I’m going to give Elias the same rating as Niese, but would trust Niese more in cash games. Rating = 7

Salaries: $5900 FD, $12600 DD, $7400 DK, $66100 FF, $21000 SS, $12600 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

David Wright – Wright is mashing LH pitching this season (much like he does every year). He has a .396 batting average and a .430 wOBA against southpaws.

Additional Plays: Juan Lagares

Seattle

Mike Zunino – As mentioned above, the Mariners have not hit LH pitching well this season. Zunino leads all Mariners with a .344 wOBA this season. He’s a cheap flier at Catcher tonight.

Additional Plays: Corey Hart