MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 25th Page Three

Miami at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM EST

Miami Pittsburgh
miamimlb David Phelps pittsburghmlb Charlie Morton
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT (-135) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.234 0.688 0.309 0.192 SP vs. Left 0.239 0.664 0.302 0.195
SP vs. Right 0.279 0.746 0.33 0.173 SP vs. Right 0.246 0.698 0.315 0.183
Batter Splits MIA BvP MIA vs R Batter Splits PIT BvP PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Phelps (FD: $6900, DK: $5200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 42 — SIERA: 4.31 — K Rate: 16.8% — K/9: 6.43 — BB Rate: 7.8% — FB Rate: 29.9% — HR/FB: 0.0%
2014: IP: 113 — SIERA: 4.21 — K Rate: 18.5% — K/9: 7.33 — BB Rate: 9.3% — FB Rate: 34.8% — HR/FB: 10.8%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 13)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.81 (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Phelps has been a serviceable starter for the Marlins, but he doesn’t stand out as a great fantasy option tonight against the Pirates. Even though Pittsburgh has struggled offensively, they have been much better in the last couple of weeks. Phelps has a relatively low K/9 of 6.4 on the season and he’s a sizable underdog on the road.

Pitcher Rating:46.7


Charlie Morton (FD: $6500, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats:
2014: IP: 157 — SIERA: 3.73 — K Rate: 18.9% — K/9: 7.21 — BB Rate: 8.6% — FB Rate: 22.8% — HR/FB: 8.8%

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 19)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.76 (Rank: 19)

Analysis: Morton will make his first start of the season, after missing nearly two months with a hip injury. He has pitched well in his rehab starts and given the fact that he has pitched over 20 innings in three starts, he shouldn’t be on any type of pitch count tonight. Morton is coming off of a terrific 2014 campaign, where he posted a 3.73 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.2. He’s an interesting target right out of the gate, as he draws a favorable matchup against a Marlins’ offense that is ranked 25th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:62.8

Batter Grind Down

Miami

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4300, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 179 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.268 — wRC+: 119
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 638 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.262 — wRC+: 150

Dee Gordon (FD: $3700, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 179 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.087 — wRC+: 140
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 650 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.090 — wRC+: 99


Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen (FD: $4300, DK: $5300)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 168 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.213 — wRC+: 127
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 648 — wOBA: 0.415 — ISO: 0.225 — wRC+: 170

Analysis: McCutchen is finally starting to find his groove. He’s batting .321 in the month of May with a .420 wOBA and a 171 wRC+. He has good power against right-handed pitching and he also has good speed on the base pads. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against David Phelps, who has given up a .330 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Secondary Plays:

Starling Marte (FD: $3800, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 160 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.155 — wRC+: 100
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 545 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 134

Josh Harrison (FD: $3300, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 154 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 95
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 550 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.184 — wRC+: 135


Chicago White Sox at Toronto – 7:07 PM EST

Chicago White Sox Toronto
whitesoxmlb Hector Noesi torontomlb Drew Hutchison
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR (-145) 9
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.235 0.727 0.319 0.164 SP vs. Left 0.254 0 0.344 0.214
SP vs. Right 0.304 0.846 0.372 0.181 SP vs. Right 0.243 0.673 0.298 0.245
Batter Splits CWS BvP CWS vs R Batter Splits TOR BvP TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Noesi (FD: $6000, DK: $4700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 17 — SIERA: 4.95 — K Rate: 19.3% — K/9: 8.15 — BB Rate: 13.3% — FB Rate: 49.1% — HR/FB: 14.8%
2014: IP: 172 — SIERA: 4.34 — K Rate: 16.8% — K/9: 6.42 — BB Rate: 7.6% — FB Rate: 40.6% — HR/FB: 12.7%

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 22)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.80 (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Noesi is having another subpar season. He owns a 4.95 SIERA with a K/9 of 8.2. The strikeout rate may look promising, but don’t be fooled. He has never been a high strikeout pitcher and he has really struggled with his command this season, walking 13.3% of the batters that he has faced. He’s an easy pitcher to avoid tonight against the Blue Jays. The Rogers Centre is one of the best hitter’s venues in all of baseball.

Pitcher Rating:30.0


Drew Hutchison (FD: $7600, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 49 — SIERA: 3.95 — K Rate: 19.5% — K/9: 7.90 — BB Rate: 7.2% — FB Rate: 31.8% — HR/FB: 12.2%
2014: IP: 184 — SIERA: 3.59 — K Rate: 23.4% — K/9: 8.97 — BB Rate: 7.6% — FB Rate: 45.2% — HR/FB: 9.7%

Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 15)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.72 (Rank: 26)

Analysis: Hucthison has pitched well this season with a 3.95 SIERA and a K/9 of 7.9. His 6.06 ERA may not look great, but his indicators do. While the ballpark doesn’t favor the pitchers, Hutchison is very playable at his price point. He’s a sizable favorite (-145) against the White Sox, who are ranked 18th in wOBA (.306) and 15th in strikeout rate (19.9%) against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:64.2

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Adam LaRoche (FD: $2800, DK: $4400)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 143 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.152 — wRC+: 122
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 586 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 146

Analysis: While Drew Hutchison is a viable pitching option tonight, that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid taking all hitters facing him. Hutchison has given up a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters and LaRoche has always had good power numbers against right-handed pitching. The White Sox also see a nice ballpark boost playing in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

Secondary Plays:

Melky Cabrera (FD: $2200, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 167 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.041 — wRC+: 93
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 621 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.151 — wRC+: 128

Adam Eaton (FD: $2700, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 151 — wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 83
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 538 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.119 — wRC+: 118


Toronto

Edwin Encarnacion (FD: $4200, DK: $5300)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 178 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.267 — wRC+: 115
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 542 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.291 — wRC+: 152

Analysis: Encarnacion hit his 12th home run of the season yesterday. He got off to a slow start this season, but he’s turned it around in the month of May, posting a .441 wOBA and a 187 wRC+. He is playing at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre and he draws a favorable matchup against the reverse-splits pitcher, Hector Noesi.

Secondary Plays:

Russell Martin (FD: $3300, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 149 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 128
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 460 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 148

Chris Colabello (FD: $2700, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 65 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 162
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 220 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 98


Seattle at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM EST

Seattle Tampa Bay
seattlemlb Roenis Elias tampabaymlb Jake Odorizzi
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB (-145) 7
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.222 0.666 0.301 0.247 SP vs. Left 0.232 0.655 0.288 0.277
SP vs. Right 0.256 0.744 0.33 0.194 SP vs. Right 0.233 0.685 0.306 0.185
Batter Splits SEA BvP SEA vs R Batter Splits TB BvP TB vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Roenis Elias (FD: $7200, DK: $7700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 32 — SIERA: 4.02 — K Rate: 18.9% — K/9: 6.89 — BB Rate: 6.8% — FB Rate: 36.2% — HR/FB: 11.8%
2014: IP: 163 — SIERA: 3.96 — K Rate: 20.6% — K/9: 7.86 — BB Rate: 9.2% — FB Rate: 34.0% — HR/FB: 10.1%

Tampa Bay Rays vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.336 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 26)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.90 (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Elias owns a 4.02 SIERA on the season with a K/9 of 6.9. He has cut down on his walks this season, but he draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Rays, who are ranked 6th in wOBA (.336) against left-handed pitching. Tampa Bay also ranks 5th in pitches per plate appearance, which allows them to drive up the pitch count. Elias is a deep GPP play at best tonight.

Pitcher Rating:58.3


Jake Odorizzi (FD: $8600, DK: $8000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 59 — SIERA: 3.71 — K Rate: 19.6% — K/9: 6.98 — BB Rate: 4.3% — FB Rate: 37.9% — HR/FB: 3.0%
2014: IP: 168 — SIERA: 3.66 — K Rate: 24.2% — K/9: 9.32 — BB Rate: 8.2% — FB Rate: 48.7% — HR/FB: 8.7%

Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 24)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.88 (Rank: 8)

Analysis: Odorizzi is the elite pitching option in the evening slate tonight. His strikeouts have been down this season, but they should go up as the season progresses. He averaged 9.3 strikeouts per innings last season. Odorizzi has been dominant at home throughout his career and he gets to face a struggling Mariners’ offense tonight. Seattle is ranked 22nd in wOBA (.299) and 24th in strikeout rate (21.5%) against right-handed pitching this season. Odorizzi is the chalk cash game pitcher tonight.

Pitcher Rating:84.2

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Kyle Seager (FD: $3000, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 159 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 100
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 654 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 147


Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria (FD: $3400, DK: $4100)

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 169 — wOBA: 0.513 — ISO: 0.241 — wRC+: 242
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 700 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 132

Analysis: Longoria has been terrific against left-handed pitching this season, posting a .513 wOBA and a .241 ISO. He has hit southpaws well throughout his career and you have to love his price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. Roenis Elias is a good left-handed pitcher, but he has given up a .330 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Secondary Plays:

Logan Forsythe (FD: $2400, DK: $3100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 158 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.327 — wRC+: 148
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 336 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 104


Atlanta at LA Dodgers – 8:10 PM EST

Atlanta LA Dodgers
atlantamlb Williams Perez ladodgersmlb Brett Anderson
Right LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD (-200) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.500 0 0.743 0.250 SP vs. Left 0.333 0.756 0.34 0.11
SP vs. Right 0.2 0.756 0.406 0.111 SP vs. Right 0.256 0.694 0.3 0.184
Batter Splits ATL BvP ATL vs L Batter Splits LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Williams Perez (FD: $5800, DK: $4200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 7 — SIERA: 3.51 — K Rate: 26.5% — K/9: 11.05 — BB Rate: 14.7% — FB Rate: 10.0% — HR/FB: 50.0%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.355 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 8)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.90 (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Perez pitched well in his first major league start, striking out seven batters in five innings of work. He only threw 79 pitches though, and he’ll likely be on some kind of pitch count again tonight. He draws the worst pitching matchup on the schedule, as the Dodgers are ranked 8th or better in wOBA, strikeout rate, and pitches per plate appearance against right-handed pitching.

Pitcher Rating:45.8


Brett Anderson (FD: $6700, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 42 — SIERA: 3.03 — K Rate: 17.5% — K/9: 6.59 — BB Rate: 5.1% — FB Rate: 20.0% — HR/FB: 11.1%
2014: IP: 43 — SIERA: 3.61 — K Rate: 16.1% — K/9: 6.02 — BB Rate: 7.2% — FB Rate: 22.1% — HR/FB: 3.3%

Atlanta Braves vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.280 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 22.9% (Rank: 24)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.74 (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Anderson has pitched well this season with a 3.03 SIERA and a K/9 of 6.6. He may not have the highest strikeout rate in baseball, but he produces a lot of ground ball outs and he gets to pitch in the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium. He also draws a very favorable matchup against a Braves’ offense that is ranked 27th in wOBA (.280) and 24th in strikeout rate (22.9%) against left-handed pitching this season. Anderson is a strong play in both cash games and tournaments.

Pitcher Rating:71.9

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Cameron Maybin (FD: $2800, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 109 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 116
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 272 — wOBA: 0.256 — ISO: 0.111 — wRC+: 64


LA Dodgers

Joc Pederson (FD: $3700, DK: $4400)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 162 — wOBA: 0.432 — ISO: 0.375 — wRC+: 180
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 38 — wOBA: 0.293 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 88

Analysis: All Pederson does is hit home runs. Well, that’s not exactly true, but he’s been impressive so far this season. He provides terrific power for a leadoff hitter, posting a .432 wOBA and a .375 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Williams Perez, who is only making his second career start.

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $3900, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 166 — wOBA: 0.463 — ISO: 0.299 — wRC+: 201
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 660 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.236 — wRC+: 150

Howie Kendrick (FD: $2900, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 166 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 124
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 674 — wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.095 — wRC+: 107


San Diego at LA Angels – 9:05 PM EST

San Diego LA Angels
sandiegomlb Tyson Ross laangelsmlb Jered Weaver
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA (-134) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.235 0.672 0.303 0.237 SP vs. Left 0.258 0.744 0.328 0.184
SP vs. Right 0.225 0.627 0.285 0.253 SP vs. Right 0.219 0.624 0.277 0.163
Batter Splits SD BvP SD vs R Batter Splits ANA BvP ANA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyson Ross (FD: $9000, DK: $9500)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 52 — SIERA: 3.41 — K Rate: 26.7% — K/9: 10.59 — BB Rate: 12.5% — FB Rate: 18.2% — HR/FB: 12.0%
2014: IP: 195 — SIERA: 3.21 — K Rate: 24.0% — K/9: 8.97 — BB Rate: 8.9% — FB Rate: 22.1% — HR/FB: 11.3%

LA Angels of Anaheim vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 14)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.73 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Ross has pitched well this season with a 3.41 SIERA and a K/9 of 10.6. His command can be off at times, but that’s not a big issue with high strikeout pitchers. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Angels, who are ranked 28th in wOBA (.278) against right-handed pitching this season. The Angels are also ranked 25th in pitches per plate appearance, which could help Ross cut down on his walks.

Pitcher Rating:68.4


Jered Weaver (FD: $7500, DK: $8500)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 57 — SIERA: 4.68 — K Rate: 11.9% — K/9: 4.37 — BB Rate: 3.8% — FB Rate: 40.0% — HR/FB: 11.5%
2014: IP: 213 — SIERA: 4.18 — K Rate: 19.0% — K/9: 7.13 — BB Rate: 7.3% — FB Rate: 47.9% — HR/FB: 8.9%

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 25)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.86 (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Weaver has pitched pretty well in his last three starts, but unless he starts striking more batters out, I’m not taking the bait. He’s only averaged 4.4 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which means he needs to have near perfect starts to pay off his hefty salary in daily fantasy. He draws a favorable matchup against the Padres, but he’s not a pitcher that is on my radar tonight.

Pitcher Rating:58.7

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Justin Upton (FD: $4000, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 167 — wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.280 — wRC+: 153
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 641 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 122

Cory Spangenberg (FD: $2200, DK: $2600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 89 — wOBA: 0.273 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 75
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 65 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.213 — wRC+: 126


LA Angels

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout (FD: $5300, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 175 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.264 — wRC+: 164
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 705 — wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.283 — wRC+: 168

Kole Calhoun (FD: $2900, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 159 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 117
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 537 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 129


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious